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Biff : 3 weeks
TracyD : Quit steaming up my tail
nguyen thi kim huong :
Sheyla : It seems the market always does the opposite of what people think it will. In particular, my brother was sure that there would be a disastrous market drop early this month, but nothing happened. I think there will be a bull run until everyone is certain that there won’t be a drop, and it will drop.
Amos Zhang : The rise of the cow has already begun, and the AI era has arrived. Just like the Internet era before, it is another big cow that has been around for ten years...
b3nt : WTF is economic awakening?
Wilhelm : There is a lot of hot money in the market right now, and I think the bull market should last for a certain period of time, maybe a month or three months. During this period of time, EV and AI chip companies have shown extraordinary products, but innovation and mass production can be achieved?it‘s also a huge challenge. At present, the valuation of Tesla and Nvidia is high, and it is likely that the stock price will usher in a correction in the near future.
MONDAY86 : The average return and duration of the US stock bull and bear markets over the past 70 years. It's easy to see from this that the magnitude and duration of the bull market far exceeded the magnitude and duration of the bear market's decline. In other words, even in a bear market, as long as you wait patiently for a year (the average bear market lasts 14 months, up to 2 years), the stock market will resume rising. Moreover, the subsequent bull market rise will almost certainly exceed the decline in the previous bear market. In other words, even if you buy at the highest point of the previous bull market, no matter how much the bear market falls after that, as long as you hold your positions patiently, the stock price will rise back sooner or later, and it will exceed your purchase price, so you won't lose money on your investment. The long-term trend of the stock market is always upward. This is determined by the laws of the economy and even by human nature. As long as capitalism exists, companies will continue to chase profits, and stocks will continue to increase in value. Moreover, society is constantly improving, and people's hearts are always rising. Any twists and turns and setbacks are temporary in the course of history. If you understand this principle, you can understand that the long-term pattern of the stock market is always rising, and bear markets are bound to be short-lived.
So while asking how long the bull market will last, ask yourself: if a bear market suddenly hits and stock prices plummet, can you face danger without fear? Aren't you afraid of getting caught in jail? Without this mental quality, no matter how good an investment method is, there is no guarantee that you will make money in the stock market.
ZnWC : There are 5 factors supporting the bull market:
1. Companies with strong fundamental will ride the bull market. Companies with poor earnings its share prices are still in the red.
2. Companies related to AI (artificial intelligence) or has invested in AI tech will rally in this bull market. Nvidia and Tesla are examples.
3. Cooling inflation and FED may pause or skip rate is one of the catalyst of the bull market.
4. US economy side step recession is another catalyst. The strong and resilient labour market is such sign.
5. US is rolling out incentive package to support the economy for example IRA (Inflation Reduce Act), BTFP (Bank Term Funding Program), EV Tax Credit etc are sign that US government is pumping money into the economy to avoid recession and banking crisis.
As I have written in my previous post, this is a mixed bull market - rally is not equal across all sectors. It may be bull in some index but show bearish in another. Some analysts or traders may mistaken the bull market as not sustainable or AI bubble is forming. They'll use TA chart to convince investors a crash is coming - hindsight bias.
I beg to differ that a crash is coming. There may be short pull back or correction but the bull market will continue at least til end of the year. There may be uncertainties e.g. inflation may remain high but positive factors are strongers.
The bull market may even reach a new height if the followings happen:
1. China government roll out more stimulus packages to support the economy (start printing money).
2. AI reached the next level - AGI (General Intelligence). This will benefit many tech companies such as EV industry autonomous vehicle commonly known as Robotaxi and humanoid robot.
3. Ukraine-Russia War reaches a cease fire agreement. This will improve the supply chain and further reduce oil and food price.
bossmanpooh40 : yes they will
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