With Fifth Consecutive Month of Positive Foreign Investor Cash Flows, Is the Decade of Emerging Markets Coming?
According to IIF (the Institute of International Finance) Capital Flows Tracker, despite Chinese bonds experiencing outflows for three months in a row, the emerging market portfolio saw inflows for the fifth consecutive month and reached $10.4 billion in May.
![With Fifth Consecutive Month of Positive Foreign Investor Cash Flows, Is the Decade of Emerging Markets Coming?](https://ussnsimg.moomoo.com/feed_image/71445112/9336679a73183f9e8b8d8f13435fd928.jpg/bigmoo)
Xavier Baraton of HSBC Asset Management: "India, Brazil, and China, don't have an inflation problem any longer, so they may cut rates faster than the Federal Reserve. If you're looking for true diversification at this time, you've got to look into true EM. You've got to look into Asia. You've got to look into India, which is under-appreciated."
1. Opportunities in emerging-market stocks:
As 1) pessimism in some EM markets peaks and 2) the expectation of policy support increases, aggregate analyst price targets compiled by Bloomberg show that benchmark share indexes are expected to rise in most emerging markets by year-end, especially in Hong Kong and mainland China.
Greg Lesko of Deltec Asset Management LLC: "The pessimism, particularly in China and Hong Kong, has been extreme and is not accurately reflecting the economic fundamentals."
2. Opportunities in emerging-market bonds:
The peaking central bank rates also increased the attractiveness of high-yielding assets, and opportunities may lie in developing-nation bonds.
James Lord of Morgan Stanley: "We upgrade our stance on EM local currency bonds to bullish, where we have held a neutral stance for much of the year."
Eric Lo of Manulife Investment Management: "Indian bonds are also looking attractive due to good growth, a potential rate cut later this year as inflation moderates, and a 'never been better' trade balance."
3. Opportunities in emerging-market currencies:
As the Fed is approaching the end of this round of tightening cycle, many emerging-market currencies may also get a break and go strong.
Edwin Gutierrez of abrdn Plc: "Assuming that we are one or two hikes away from the peak, then that headwind to EM currency performance should dissipate; It also psychologically will pave the way for more EM central banks to consider rate cuts in the coming months."
lvin T. Tan of RBC: "The end of global rate hikes will help reduce volatility and support the carry trade, and that will benefit higher-yielding EM currencies and bonds; A more concerted return of the carry trade would benefit the higher carry Latam and EMEA currencies even more, excepting the ones under the spell of unorthodox policies, such as the Turkish lira."
Source: IIF,Reuters,Bloomberg
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only.
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