More Rate Hikes Incoming in 2023 - What You Need to Know
As Jerome Powell said there will be 2 more rate hikes (of ~0.50%), it’s normal to worry that the damage to the economy & market might be worse than expected.
There are signs that many believe it will be hard to avoid a recession in the US because treasury yields (which are a kind of return on investment for bonds) on US and German10-year bondsare lower than the rate on two-year bonds (meaning, more investors are keeping their money in long-term investments to avoid the near-term financial disasters). The ECB has experienced this threat before, having twice stopped rate increases that are now seen as mistakes.
A new push for increasing interest rates has happened this month among global central banks because of ongoing price pressures. Last week, both Canada and Australia surprised everyone by starting to increase interest rates again. Even for the ECB,they have also raised 0.25% just yesterday.
As a result, traders expect the Fed will raise its target rate to nearly 5.5% - the highest in a long time. For the ECB, they think there's a 50-50 chance of a peak rate of 4% by October - which would be a record.
However, these predictions are making the markets nervous. An inverted yield curve is unusual. It happens when long-term rates are lower than short-term rates, suggesting that traders think central banks will have to cut rates in the future when a recession hits and inflation decreases.
Recent US data shows that the economy is strong but slowing down. Retail sales last month were higher than expected, but this report also showed that consumer demand has fallen. At the same time, factory production remained slow and jobless claims were at their highest since the end of last year.
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