How should we accept Mr. Buffett's increase in purchases? Is it a step higher in Japanese stocks or is it an adjustment due to a sense of overheating

It became clear that the investment company Berkshire Hathaway, led by famous American investor Warren Buffett, raised the holding ratio of major Japanese trading company stocks. As a result, trading company stocks rose across the board in the Tokyo market on the 20th, and target stock prices for the five largest trading company stocks were raised drastically.

According to John Bale, chief global strategist at Nikko Asset Management (Tokyo), “Mr. Buffett clearlyFurther dispel the negative view of investing in value (undervalued) stocks in JapanIt is said, “I did.”

Since the beginning of 2023, the strength of Japanese stocks has been conspicuous, and the Nikkei Average temporarily hit a high for the first time in 33 years, and at the time of the closing on 6/20, the Nikkei Average recorded a 27.95% increase year-to-date.

Also, the status of stock trading by overseas investors by region in May announced by the Tokyo Stock Exchange on the morning of the 20thNorth America, Asia, and Europe are all buying overIt was. The North American team switched to overbuying for the first time in 3 months since February, and the European team's overpurchase amount exceeded 1 trillion yen for 2 consecutive months.

Regarding the future development of the Japanese stock market, many analysts pointed out that the Bank of Japan's current large-scale monetary easing measures and the suspension of interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) overlap, and it will be a factor supporting Japanese stocks.

According to UBS, many investors believe that the depreciation of the yen will not continue, and that it is unlikely that the yen exchange rate will fall to the level of 1 dollar = 140 yen.

Meanwhile, there are many analysts who think that investing in Japanese stocks is a good choice regardless of unstable fluctuations in the yen exchange rate. Macro strategist Simon White says Japanese stocks are the best in the world for global investorsinflation hedgeIt is one of them, and it is stated that investing in Japanese stocks can offset the effects of a surge in the global inflation rate.

However,There are also signs that Japan's major general trading companies are becoming overheated. For example, the best-performing wholesale trade index in the Japanese stock market has surged about 42% since the beginning of this year, and according to technical analysis from the beginning of this monthThe overbought zoneIt's in. This is in response to the recent sharp rise,There is a high possibility of short-term adjustments due to movements in profit determination and a sense of overheatingIt suggests that.

Also, it will boost the Nikkei AverageThere is also a limit to the “Buffett effect”There is also a voice saying. Kinouchi Eiji, chief technical analyst at Daiwa Securities“The Buffett effect lasts for 3 months”I anticipate that.

Mr. Kinouchi said, “The increase in purchases up to 9.9% has been factored in since spring, and since good news from individual companies will also come out before the general shareholders' meeting, stock price increases, including trading company stocksDo you lose your back from the end of June to the beginning of JulyI think there is a possibility.”

Meanwhile, he said, “What pushed the Nikkei Average into the high price range for the first time in 33 yearsShort-term investorsis at the center,The medium- to long-term focus is at the stage where the underweight range has begun to shrink” Mr. Tanaka of Pictet is watching. In order for the shelf life of the Buffett effect to be longer, we are determining whether the relative strength of Japanese stocks will continue in the futureFull-scale entry of medium- to long-term players is necessarybecomes.