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Evolution of the S&P 500 Index
⬛ ︎ Weekly chart analysis short term medium long term chart analysis resistance line (oblique) 175.0 and support line (parallel) 155.0. Currently, it is moving at 4417, and the support line is 3800 in parallel, and it has been moving in a parallel channel since 2022/7 last year. If you think about the most recent peak SHOOTING STAR of 4500 in 2022/4 in this part, it is conceivable that if the 4600 part is tested once, even if it falls thereafter, it is a stage where it is tested again. Also, when viewed from 2022/5 to 2022/12, it can be assessed that head and shoulders were formed as a chart, and then declined until 2023/1. Regarding this, in contrast to the fact that it has risen to 4300 this time, it was also formed as a chart pattern. This appears to be a strong balance in terms of Elliott waves as continuous growth in the form of going above the long-term moving average line. In other words, America's continued growth at this stage is optimistic, and it seems that 4,500 will be tested in the short term, but if interest rates continue to rise, there is a high possibility that it will be a form of further adjustment after July. I'm a bit skeptical in my opinion about entering in a long position from this stage in that part.
●Technical analysis
・Weekly RSI RSI
It is generally a transition from 20 to 80. As for the weekly RSI, it is currently moving at a very high price, and it has generally exceeded the 80 line, which is regarded as the peak. It can be seen that it goes right and left and right, and the long-term one is set to 80. From this stage, a triple top was formed for a short period of time as an RSI with an 80 line, and the short term was adjusted again to 80. From this point of view, which has declined due to this concern, it is generally determined that there is a high possibility that this part of the line will continue to fall to around 50 on the assumption that there is reproducibility.
・Weekly MACD
The correlation between RSI and MACD is high. Unlike RSI, the MACD has begun to fall to 0 along with the signal. There has been a trend of continuous growth since the stage, and it can be recognized that the transition is slightly slower than RSI. Looking at places where there is reproducibility in the past, it seems that it has reached its peak in January 2022. From this stage, the McLeat Signal divergence rate has spread about the same extent as 2022/12/9 based on past statistics. In other words, unlike the chart and RSI, there is still a continuous upward trend. After this, there is a high possibility that there will be a form of temporary adjustment in some form, and there are times when the vicinity of 0 is tested. Overall, it seems that long entries are in a very difficult situation from this stage, and a short-term decline is expected.
Please be aware that investments are made at your own risk and are subject to personal subjectivity.
#S &P500 Index
#相場分析
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