Resource stock retrading - June 30
On June 30, most of the domestic commodity futures market closed higher. Most of the basic metals rose, Shanghai tin rose more than 3%, Shanghai nickel rose more than 1%; black products had mixed ups and downs, coking coal and coke rose more than 2%, and ferrosilicon fell more than 1%; most agricultural products rose, Zheng Mian rose more than 2%, vegetable oil rose nearly 2%; most energy chemicals rose, and low-sulphur fuel oil, rubber, and crude oil rose more than 1%; precious metals had mixed ups and downs.
Iron ore news:
Fundamentally, the volume from the supply side to port remained at a neutral level, the average daily iron and water production on the demand side rose slightly, steel mills maintained active storage removal, and port inventories were removed slightly. In terms of supply, deliveries to Hong Kong are +686,000 tons month-on-month to 22.493 million tons, while deliveries from Macau and Pakistan are -1,842,000 tons month-on-month. Considering that shipments continue to rise and are close to a full-year high, there is an expectation that the volume arriving in Hong Kong will continue to rise in the later stages. The average daily molten iron production on the demand side increased slightly. Steel mills took the initiative to remove warehouses. The removal rate from factories was greater than the increase in daily consumption. Imported mineral stocks were -299,000 tons month-on-month, and daily consumption was +0.21,000 tons. The downward trend in inventory-consumption ratio remained unchanged. Looking at weekly steel data, the apparent demand for the five major varieties has declined significantly, and it is expected that demand for steel is running weak in the later stages; currently, iron demand is running weak, early iron production has increased significantly, and steel consumption conflicts have further accumulated in the off-season. Considering the large rebound in the market in the previous period, there is limited room for strong expectations. It is expected that demand for repeated steel has not increased beyond expectations. It is expected that the market will gradually return to fundamental logic.
Offer update:
Shanzheng Iron Ore (3047.HK) closed at HK$17.55, cumulative return: 1 week: 3.11% January: 14.26% March: -2.5% June: 3.3% since listing: 135.57%
Status of the Hong Kong Resources Stock:
According to information from the China Coal Distribution and Marketing Association, the China Coal Distribution and Marketing Association released “Operation Status and Future Prospects of the Thermal Power Industry in May 2023.” Among them, it is pointed out that in May, China's economic operation continued to recover. The electricity consumption and power generation of the whole society all increased markedly over the same period last year; hydropower output fell short of expectations, thermal power maintained relatively rapid growth, hours spent using coal-fired power generation increased, and the low level of coal consumption in major power plants rebounded. It is expected that in the next few months, investment will grow steadily, and there will still be strong support for electricity demand; judging that July and August are in the traditional peak summer period, continued high temperatures will drive an increase in seasonal electricity and coal demand. If hydropower output exceeds expectations, the growth space for coal-fired power generation and coal use will be limited to a certain extent. $CHINA COAL(01898.HK$
According to the news, CITIC Construction Investment pointed out that with the price of lithium carbonate rebounding, market supply gradually increased, but with strong prices of lithium pyroxene and lithium mica concentrate, the cost side of outsourced mining processing lithium salt plants is under pressure, and lithium salt plants are still too expensive to sell. Downstream demand continues to pick up, and energy storage orders are relatively good. Five ministries and commissions have launched a new round of new energy vehicles going to the countryside to promote NEV consumption. As a result, consumption continues to improve, lithium prices are strongly supported, and it is expected that lithium prices will remain high. $TIANQI LITHIUM(09696.HK$
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