Resource stock retrading - June 30

On June 30, most of the domestic commodity futures market closed higher. Most of the basic metals rose, Shanghai tin rose more than 3%, Shanghai nickel rose more than 1%; black products had mixed ups and downs, coking coal and coke rose more than 2%, and ferrosilicon fell more than 1%; most agricultural products rose, Zheng Mian rose more than 2%, vegetable oil rose nearly 2%; most energy chemicals rose, and low-sulphur fuel oil, rubber, and crude oil rose more than 1%; precious metals had mixed ups and downs.

Fundamentally, the volume from the supply side to port remained at a neutral level, the average daily iron and water production on the demand side rose slightly, steel mills maintained active storage removal, and port inventories were removed slightly. In terms of supply, deliveries to Hong Kong are +686,000 tons month-on-month to 22.493 million tons, while deliveries from Macau and Pakistan are -1,842,000 tons month-on-month. Considering that shipments continue to rise and are close to a full-year high, there is an expectation that the volume arriving in Hong Kong will continue to rise in the later stages. The average daily molten iron production on the demand side increased slightly. Steel mills took the initiative to remove warehouses. The removal rate from factories was greater than the increase in daily consumption. Imported mineral stocks were -299,000 tons month-on-month, and daily consumption was +0.21,000 tons. The downward trend in inventory-consumption ratio remained unchanged. Looking at weekly steel data, the apparent demand for the five major varieties has declined significantly, and it is expected that demand for steel is running weak in the later stages; currently, iron demand is running weak, early iron production has increased significantly, and steel consumption conflicts have further accumulated in the off-season. Considering the large rebound in the market in the previous period, there is limited room for strong expectations. It is expected that demand for repeated steel has not increased beyond expectations. It is expected that the market will gradually return to fundamental logic.

Shanzheng Iron Ore (3047.HK) closed at HK$17.55, cumulative return: 1 week: 3.11% January: 14.26% March: -2.5% June: 3.3% since listing: 135.57%