Apple’s Vision Pro Will Take Far Longer Than iPad, Watch to Spur Big Revenue

Apple Inc.’s iPhone and iPad became significant revenue contributors nearly instantly, while the iPod took a bit longer and the Apple Watch is still adding sales. But the latest major new device category, the Vision Pro mixed-reality headset, will take much longer to reach the same feat — if it ever does.
In 2004, three years after its launch, Apple broke the iPod out into its own sales category. That year, the MP3 player generated about 16% of the company’s sales. By the time the iPhone was announced, the iPod was the source of almost 40% of Apple’s annual revenue, bringing in about $8 billion annually.
While the original iPhone was met with initial concerns surrounding its price point and AT&T exclusivity, it sold 1 million units in less than three months and topped 10 million units during its first full year on sale. By 2009, it generated about a third of Apple’s total revenue.
The iPad was an instant blockbuster, making Apple nearly $20 billion in revenue — or about 18% of total sales — by 2011, the year after its debut. In its first year, Apple sold about 15 million tablets, nearly tripling the iPhone’s initial performance.

The Apple Watch started off slower than those products but has since become an important part of the business. Apple has never broken out Apple Watch sales into its own category; the device is tucked it into a Wearables, Home and Accessories segment with AirPods, Beats headphones, the HomePod and Apple TV.
That group brings in about $40 billion annually now, or about the same amount as the Mac. The Apple Vision Pro, which will likely be placed into the same financial reporting segment, will have an even longer ramp up.
The Apple Watch launched at $349 and in nine countries. The Vision Pro will debut at 10 times that price and only in the US. The Vision Pro won’t expand internationally for several months after its “early 2024” launch, (which could mean any time until May) and it likely won’t arrive at resellers until 2025.
While multipurpose smartwatches were a niche item back in 2015, fitness trackers were popular and people had been accustomed to wrist watches for 200 years. The Vision Pro is a different story: it’s heavy, may not have compelling enough use cases, and requires an external battery. A bigger challenge will be convincing people to do something they’ve probably never done before: wearing a computer on their face.