Iron ore and A-share market weekly report and global capital market weekly report.
Overall, looking at it
The global shipment of iron ore has fallen back, and currently it is in the financial reporting season, so the supply of iron ore will gradually increase.
The output of pig iron is still at a high level, which supports the price of iron ore.
Last week, the non-farm payroll in the United States was worse than expected, and the US economy is at the boundary between zero growth and recession. Currently, the market generally believes that there will be a 25bp interest rate hike in July, and there may be further interest rate hikes in the future.
On the supply side
Total shipments from Australia and Brazil amounted to 29.44 million tons, an increase of 2.66 million tons from the previous week. Among them, Australia shipped 20.59 million tons, an increase of 2.42 million tons from the previous week. Among them, 17.32 million tons were shipped to China, an increase of 1.85 million tons from the previous week; Brazil shipped 8.84 million tons, an increase of 0.24 million tons, of which 2.9 million tons were shipped to China, a decrease of 2.05 million tons from the previous week.
This week, there will be port maintenance in Australia, and subsequent shipments may decrease. $SSIF DCE Iron Ore Futures Index ETF (03047.HK)$
On the demand side
The blast furnace utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 84.48%, a week-on-week increase of 0.39%, a year-on-year increase of 5.95%; the ironmaking capacity utilization rate of blast furnaces is 92.11%, a week-on-week increase of 0.13%, a year-on-year increase of 6.41%; the profit rate of steel mills is 63.64%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.43%, a year-on-year increase of 46.76%.
The average daily iron production is 2.4682 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.0006 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.1598 million tons.
As for inventory
The national import iron ore inventory at 45 ports is 126.39 million tons, a decrease of 1.03 million tons compared to the previous month; the average daily cargo handling volume is 3.13 million tons, an increase of 0.05 million tons.
It is expected that the incoming volume will continue to increase slightly.
A-share market weekly report and global capital market weekly report
This week's A-share weekly report:
The current market is entering an important window for data and policy observation. In the coming week, June and second quarter economic and financial data will be released, which may further strengthen the market's expectations for macro policy support. We recommend continued focus on policy orientation and implementation, especially the political bureau meeting that may be held in late July. If future policies are properly addressed, the mid-term market outlook should not be pessimistic. We maintain a neutral to positive view on the A-share market in the second half of the year, considering the marginal changes in policy expectations. Industry recommendations: Short-term growth as the main line, medium-term focus on consumer. During the mid-year report period, pay attention to stocks with performance that may exceed or fall short of expectations. We recommend focusing on three main lines: 1) Embrace the growth areas of new technology, new industries, and new trends, especially the technology growth track of artificial intelligence and digital economy. The semiconductor industry chain is expected to have opportunities for cyclical reversal and technological resonance in the second half of the year; Continue to focus on artificial intelligence in the software sector, which is expected to lead the industry in empowering fields, such as office software. 2) Sectors with improved demand or supply patterns such as inventory and capacity, which have greater performance flexibility, such as baijiu, white appliances, jewelry, power grid equipment, and marine equipment. 3) Sectors with high dividend yields and quality cash flow, and undervalued state-owned enterprises still have room for recovery. $Kweichow Moutai (600519.SH)$ $Gree Electric Appliances,Inc.of Zhuhai (000651.SZ)$
Global Fund Market Weekly Report
We expect the core CPI to rise by 0.22% in June (consensus is 0.3%), corresponding to a year-on-year growth rate of 4.93% (consensus is 5.0%). We expect the overall CPI in June to rise by 0.25% (consensus is 0.3%), which will reduce the year-on-year rate to 3.08% (consensus is 3.1%).
We focused on three key component-level trends expected to be seen in this month's report. First, we expect used car prices to fall by 1.2% in June, and new car prices to fall by 0.2%, reflecting a decrease in auction prices for used cars and the continued increase in promotional incentives for auto dealers. Second, we expect remaining seasonal factors to put pressure on the tourism category this month (we expect hotel and public transportation prices to fall by 2%), as seasonal factors in the CPI may overfit the rebound in prices after the lockdown due to the pandemic. Third, as the gap between new and continuing lease rents continues to narrow, we expect housing inflation to ease (we expect rents and OER to rise by 0.47%).
Looking ahead, we expect the average core CPI inflation rate to remain in the range of 0.2-0.3% over the next few months, reflecting a continued slowdown in labor demand, ongoing moderation of housing inflation, declining used car prices, and slowing non-housing service inflation. We expect the year-on-year core CPI inflation rate to be 3.8% in December 2023, and 3.0% in December 2024.
June CPI preview: Core inflation slowing down
We expect the core CPI to rise by 0.22% in June (consensus is 0.3%), corresponding to a year-on-year growth rate of 4.93% (consensus is 5.0%). We expect the overall CPI in June to rise by 0.25% (consensus is 0.3%), reflecting increases in food and energy prices. This will reduce the year-on-year growth rate to 3.08% (consensus is 3.1%).
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3047 is a team specializing in the research of commodities and smart beta. We like to exchange investment strategies.
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