Is the Nikkei average rebound starting pigeon or hawk, predictions for the July Bank of Japan meeting split

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Earnings for the fiscal year ending April to June are in full swing, and full-year forecasts are expected to “rise” due to depreciation of yen, etc.
Ahead of full-scale financial results for the fiscal year ending 2023/4/6, the outlook for the stock market is being rounded up based on the earnings forecasts of major companies. The “Revision Index (RI),” which indicates the direction of market predictions for fiscal year 23, became the highest since 22/6. In addition to a succession of bullish forecasts, mainly automobile-related, etc. due to the depreciation of the yen exchange rate and the resolution of semiconductor shortages, strong domestic consumption is also a tailwind. Attention is drawn to the fact that results that support expectations are obtained in financial results.

Shareholder surveillance intensifies at the top of large companies, and support for reappointment has plummeted due to stricter exercise of voting rights
At this year's general shareholders' meetings, there were a series of cases where approval ratings plummeted over the appointment of directors of top management of famous companies representing Japan. The background is that investment companies and voting advisory companies have set standards due to heightened awareness of corporate governance (corporate governance), and there is a growing need for managers to consider parts other than performance in order to gain the trust of shareholders.

Sales of automobile stocks are conspicuous, be wary of the impending appreciation of the yen, and refrain from buying just before Nissan's own financial results are announced
$Toyota Motor(7203.JP)$ 、 $Nissan Motor(7201.JP)$ 、 $Honda Motor(7267.JP)$、 $Subaru(7270.JP)$Automobile stocks, etc., are generally weak. Currently, yen was bought back in the foreign exchange market, and the dollar depreciated and yen appreciated. It fits even at levels below the $1 = 141 yen range, and it is becoming easier for the automobile sector, which has a high degree of exchange sensitivity, to be aware of headwinds in response to the depreciation of the yen.

MOL Director Hashimoto “Container ship market conditions will recover after next year” Focus on investments such as real estate
It seems that the slump in shipping market conditions will continue for the time being. $Mitsui O.S.K. Lines(9104.JP)$President Hashimoto Tsuyoshi responded to an interview by the Nihon Keizai Shimbun and expressed the view that “full-scale recovery will occur after next year” regarding container ship spot fares. As the reaction of the rapid rise in fares due to the novel coronavirus remains, we will focus on real estate business etc. and build a stable profit system in the future.

Promoting entry into the defense industry, selecting 200 emerging companies, government utilizing drones and cyber technology
The government unofficially selected about 200 emerging companies expected as entry candidates in order to utilize advanced technology possessed by startups in the defense industry. The government explains defense equipment introduction plans and financial support and listens to requests. Dispel concerns and encourage entry. Create guidelines for requesting proper transactions from major companies so that small and medium-sized enterprises can secure profits.

Is it pigeon or hawk, predictions for the July Bank of Japan meeting
There will be a high-profile Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting from July 27 to 28, and the company's financial results for the fiscal year ending 2023/4/6 will be in full swing. What has attracted more attention than anything else is the Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting on the 27th to 28th. There are many voices in the market that “views are divided” (domestic securities traders). While domestic securities are often viewed as “maintaining the status quo” with regard to monetary policy, there are predictions that there will be changes in long and short interest rate manipulation (YCC) mainly for foreign securities. On a press basis, at the July meeting, Reuters stated on the 21st that it was “a possibility of deciding to maintain the current state of monetary policy,” and then “the YCC framework will also be maintained, and there is a high possibility that the 10-year interest rate fluctuation range will remain unchanged at 0.5% up and down.”

Bank of Japan's policy revisions, 40% “in July too” economist survey
The Bank of Japan is expected to discuss the pros and cons of revising long and short interest rate manipulation (yield curve control, YCC) at the monetary policy meeting to be held from 27th to 28th. When Nihon Keizai Shimbun interviewed 14 economists, 40% answered that revisions at the July meeting were “possible.” High prices and depreciation of yen continue, and there are strong voices wary of early policy revisions.

Shimano's earnings forecast for the current fiscal year was revised downward due to a sharp decline in European weather, etc.
$Shimano(7309.JP)$It has declined drastically and has continued to decline. After the transaction ended on the 25th, a downward revision of the full-year earnings forecast was announced in line with the consolidated financial results announcement for the 2nd quarter cumulative total (January-June) for the fiscal year ending December 23. The forecast for operating profit was lowered from 83 billion yen to 70 billion yen (down 58.6% from the previous fiscal year), and it was disgusting.

Over 90% of union members agree over the Sogo-Seibu Labor Union strike rights establishment and sale plan and do not ask the Seven side for prior discussions
The Sogo Seibu Labor Union (approximately 4000 union members) announced on the 25th that it has established strike (strike) rights. Backed by strike rights, parent company's $Seven & i Holdings(3382.JP)$We will ask the side to disclose information about business plans and continuing employment after the sale of Sogo and Seibu, prior discussions, and collective bargaining. There are still many issues with the strike, and the union side is restrained in implementing it.

Toyota, Mitsubishi cut personnel in China, EVs delayed, Japanese cars struggle
Japanese manufacturers are struggling in the Chinese automobile market. $Toyota Motor(7203.JP)$It became clear that 1000 people were cut in a joint venture with a major local company. Production continues to be suspended $Mitsubishi Motors(7211.JP)$will also decide to organize personnel. While Chinese manufacturers are leading the way in the development and production of electric vehicles (EVs), Japan's structural reforms cannot wait.

The risk of a global economic slowdown is still strong, IMF predicts 3% growth from 23 to 24
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced the quarterly economic forecast on the 25th. The global economy is expected to grow at a low rate of 3.0% throughout 2023-24. There are strong concerns that high inflation and prolonged monetary tightening will put downward pressure on the economy, which has been strong until now.

Advertisement costs revised upward to 2.6% Nikkei Advertising Research Institute forecast this fiscal year, driving demand for visitors to Japan
The Nikkei Advertising Research Institute has compiled a forecast that advertising costs for fiscal 2023 will increase by 2.6% compared to fiscal year 22. It was revised upward from the forecast as of February (1.5% increase). As overseas economies remain steady, inbound (foreign visitors to Japan) demand takes the lead, and there is a high probability that the Japanese economy will continue to recover.