[Interest rate cut timing is ●●!] July FOMC summary

July's FOMC is over. Here's a summary of the points!

＜Roughly speaking ＞
✅ Interest rate increase of 0.25% as expected
✅ Since it is as expected by the market, there are no major movements in stock prices
→It was as expected in advance, so there were no major movements. It's reassuring to be able to pass through without problems.
Also, the views on the current economic situation were generally positive.


＜Chairman Powell's Statement＞

✅ Prices and labor market trends are as expected
✅ Inflation is slowing down (but I want to keep a close eye on it)
✅ There is a possibility that a soft landing will be possible without turning into a recession
✅ Interest rate cuts will be made at the timing determined to be appropriate. I'm not thinking about the end of the year.
✅ It is estimated that it will take until around 2025 for the inflation rate to return to 2% (an appropriate value)
→Basically, follow the contents of the previous meeting

It was like this, and there was a sense of security because “the results were as expected” and “inflation is improving.”

The stock price felt like ↓, and it moved in small increments.

One point I'm worried about in the future is whether there will be an interest rate hike next time or not.

It says “it depends on the data.”

As for the state of inflation, housing costs etc. are still high.

If you look at the yellow line below, it's still high.

As for other prices, prices are falling, and a decline in prices can be seen.

Therefore, the following economic indicators should be checked in the future.

・CPI
・PCE deflator


If these fall further, future interest rate hikes may be put off.

Also, regarding the timing of interest rate cuts, it was said that “we will do it at the right time” and “we are not thinking about the end of the year,”

We should probably look at 2025 and beyond.

In that case, the full-scale rise in stock prices is likely to be after '24.

I would like to continue following it in the future.