I want to hold it as a risk hedging contrarian in preparation for a major turning point before and after the presidential election

Based on US debt, I think there is a possibility that the overall market price will drop drastically, starting with US stocks around the presidential election. Many famous wealthy people secretly sell even excellent stocks from around spring so as not to cause anxiety about the market price to increase their cash holding ratio.

Since citizens are suffering due to the movement to review portfolios to increase the holding ratio of short-term US bonds, gold, and cash in preparation for the upcoming crash, and the unhealthy state of US debt and inflation, they themselves imagine that a crisis of major collapse is imminent, and they are proceeding with proactive investment actions.

Not all sectors, and I think there are some sectors where the rate of decline is low. I want to sell consumer-related products in particular. Most general investors are buying with the expectation that it will approach 50,000 yen by the end of the year in exchange, such as the rise in the Dow and S&P 500, AI and semiconductor-related increases, and the Nikkei Average breaking the highest value.

I'm not a pessimist, but there is also a strange atmosphere due to various reasons, and Japanese stocks calmly determined profits for part of US stocks, and the ratio of cash to diversified investment portfolios other than just stocks was always set at 25%, but I want to sell stocks in order to raise the cash ratio to 35% as soon as possible by the end of August. Our holdings include blue-chip stocks, growth stocks, and stocks with explosive growth expectations. Among them, there are also holdings that do not respond well and cannot be expected to rise immediately, even if profits are being made. I want to prioritize such immediate stocks, where performance cannot be expected, to determine profits and convert them into cash. If it were to crash as expected, I'm expecting a scenario where blue-chip stocks can be obtained at bargain prices. I want to buy more stocks that I have continued to hold if they fall drastically without being moved even if they crash. After the presidential election, if nothing happens within the year for a while, it may not happen. This is because I want to improve my performance by steadily managing risk and preparing funds when opportunities arrive. Institutional investors have predicted large mountain ranges until now, and have gained further wealth during the crash. As a small risk hedge against this stock price crash, I would like to buy about 500 shares in an inverse type with a target of 10 dollars 50 cents or less at 1 times the leverage of Tekker Code: SH, on a contrarian basis. I want to buy an Orkan ETF as a stop to investing.

Currently, due to inflation in the United States, I have heard that the number of people living on the street is increasing depending on the state, such as letting go of their homes without being able to pay loans, working for companies while living in cars. There are probably Americans in the investment society who benefit from high stock prices regardless of their annual income, but in most cases, people with assets, high prices, and low income earners have higher expenses due to inflation than investment gains, and polarization has further intensified, and polarization has further intensified, and the middle class is flowing to the poor.

Seen from this state of the economy and the financial situation of the United States, I can only think that stock prices are heating up, even though the US economy does not seem to be healthy and is not slowing down. Most people think that someday, a major crash like the bubble or Lehman shock will occur unexpectedly and suddenly. However, in addition to natural disasters, there are signs and signs of events in the economy and disputes, and it is certain that they can also be risk avoidance and opportunities for investment and asset management depending on whether or not they can be read and dealt with quickly. Do you sell impulsively in case of emergency, or in the event of a crash, when sales call for sales due to anxiety, there are cases where even excellent stocks fall 30-50%, and even if you sell them, if you cash them quickly and buy them back even more, you can hold a larger number of shares than before, but do you have the assumption that they will return and have the patience and mental strength to wait until they return? Also, you can invest on a daily basis with financial strength and spare capital, and diversify your investments with only Japanese stocks and US stocks by stock sector or geopolitical diversification There are quite a few people who say they are doing it. However, at the time of the major stock price crash, regardless of which country originated, the global economy is now completely depreciating, especially in the US market, Japanese market, Chinese market, Hong Kong market, and emerging markets, so diversified investment with only stocks is not risky. In the case of investing in US stocks, on top of the decline, it is also assumed that if the yen appreciates rapidly, it will fall more than the rate of decline, and Japanese yen and foreign exchange allocations that take exchange rates into account are also important. Interest rates on US bonds are also reversed between short-term and medium-term 30-year government bonds, and if you hold short-term government bonds before interest rate cuts, high interest rates on short-term government bonds are guaranteed, and short-term government bonds with good conditions become popular and become high, but if you are an American or someone who uses dollars in the US, there is no exchange rate risk. Currently, there are people who recommend holding US bonds as part of their portfolios before interest rate cuts, but I cannot make an unequivocal judgment. The 5% yield is attractive in Japan's low interest rate era. However, if the depreciation of the yen progresses above interest rates, it will be further reduced from the investment amount when it returns to yen beyond offset. Instead of using it as yen, I think it would be good to get a yield in dollars, have high liquidity in cash dollars, and if the reason is to have foreign currency dollars due to US stock investments, invest in US stocks with short-term US bonds in dollar foreign currency, or travel to the US due to the appreciation of yen. I also own short-term US bonds. This is because they are investing in US stocks and foreign currency denominated in dollars is also necessary. Securities companies, banks, analysts, etc. recommend without thinking about the intended use of the person they are recommending, but if an American living in the United States definitely has cash, interest rates can be secured with the intention of a 2-year time deposit. Japanese stock investments that don't travel, are familiar and easy to select stocks but don't know about US stocks, there are exchange rate risks, or even people who can't take exchange rate risks, and even people who can't take exchange rate risks, and if there is not much need for individual stock analysis such as stock price-linked ETFs, sector-specific ETFs, semiconductor-related, Orcan, growth stock ETFs, etc. in the US or emerging countries without much need for individual stock analysis, such as whether or not to worry about whether or not to read the prospectus and manage assets with yield You have to understand the mechanism of composition ratios.

Other than those, the pattern of losing money in mutual funds, which is easy to fall into, is exchange rate risk, and exchange rate risk can be avoided to some extent with the dollar cost averaging method on the assumption of long-term holdings. However, what is often overlooked is trust remuneration (fee), and there is a big difference in fee burdens when the 10-year and 20-year reserve operation expires due to the 0.1% difference, and it is important to recognize this, and bank employees etc. probably won't even explain the difference in total fee amounts due to slight differences in trust remuneration rates?

I'm sorry I got off topic. There are also people who easily started with mutual funds recommended without understanding it from their own circumstances, and established NISA at banks. There are also people who cannot utilize NISA's individual stock growth quota for stock investments. Explain the differences to people starting a new investment, and if you open a securities company, once you start, NISA cannot be transferred, it is good to easily re-open an NISA account from bank to securities company, or have multiple general accounts at a securities company, but once you open NISA, it's fine if it's the early next fiscal year, or something, but once a certain amount or funded investment has begun, changes to financial institutions with NISA accounts will be disadvantageous, so if you change before the fiscal year when the investment amount is low I think most people understand that it is necessary to let them do it.

I think NISA should be established at a securities company where individual stocks can also be flexibly selected in order to properly use reserve frames and growth quotas for double compound interest management with high dividends for stable stocks through stock investment and management aiming for capital gains for growth stocks.

In the case of a securities company, fees and if you want to invest in US stocks, the large number of stocks handled is also probably the selection criteria for opening a NISA account. I started stocks with Nomura Securities about 40 years ago, and from the middle I managed them with SBI Securities, Rakuten Securities, and GMO Click Securities. Since NISA chose SBI Securities when the old NISA started, it has been managed by Rakuten Securities. We started investing in US stocks in April of last year, and when there is no handling, we recently started US stocks with Moomoo Securities. From now on, we intend to preferentially hold and diversify US stocks with MooMoo Securities other than NISA purchases. If even the three companies do not handle the stocks they want to buy, they have opened 4 accounts so that they can be purchased with Saxo Bank Securities.

Moomoo Securities has plenty of application information and is good for experienced people, and since structured investment learning for beginners is easy to understand when receiving stock consultations from acquaintances, and actual investments can be started in parallel with demo investments, I recommend it even to beginners who have already established NISA at other securities companies because of their low fees for US stocks and good as a sub-account for stock analysis and US stock purchases. Moomoo Securities's customer support is also easy to connect with, and I recommend it to investment beginners because it is polite and easy to understand.