Introducing “Harry Trade” versus “Trump Trade” - Barclays
2024/7/31 13:26 JST (some excerpts)
If the Republican Party wins, there is a possibility that bond volatility will rise by 30 bps
The potential for lower volatility is currently underestimated in the market
Barclays interest rate strategists introduced the possibility of a “Harry trade” against so-called “Trump trades.”
According to reports from both Amruth Nasiker and Maria Chiara Russo announced on the 30th, when a candidate from a political party different from the incumbent wins in the US presidential election, it is common for interest rate volatility to rise 3 months after the election. However, if the White House remains in the hands of incumbent political parties, volatility declines. If Vice President Harris of the Democratic Party wins, it will be the latter.
If the Republican Party wins, there is a possibility that bond volatility will rise by 30 bps
The potential for lower volatility is currently underestimated in the market
Barclays interest rate strategists introduced the possibility of a “Harry trade” against so-called “Trump trades.”
According to reports from both Amruth Nasiker and Maria Chiara Russo announced on the 30th, when a candidate from a political party different from the incumbent wins in the US presidential election, it is common for interest rate volatility to rise 3 months after the election. However, if the White House remains in the hands of incumbent political parties, volatility declines. If Vice President Harris of the Democratic Party wins, it will be the latter.
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