This is the crucial point! If this can be surpassed, a rapid ascent once again!
Technical analysis (Rating: 3.2/5)
From the low point on 6/9, there is a trend of multiple consecutive positive candles. A typical Sakata's Five Methods pattern of 'Red Three Soldiers' is observed. Additionally, a short-term cycle of '①rise ②consolidation ③rise' is forming, corresponding to Sakata's Five Methods 'Three Rising Methods'. It can be seen as evidence of riding a typical uptrend.
A double bottom formation is in progress. It will be completed by breaking through the "near 64500" neckline. After completion, there is room for an increase up to around "66000". However, it may still be a while before the neckline breach of the double top formed in July.
Currently, it is in a state where it is hindered by the downward trend factors "② Halistrade reconsideration (66000)" and "③ Yen carry trade rollback concerns", and a trend reversal that cancels out ② and ③ is necessary for a new high update. As an immediate target, it is urgent to break the criteria of ②. If it cannot be broken through, there is a high possibility that the current level will temporarily become a ceiling due to the failure of the upward trend reversal. In that case, it may be necessary to accept a decline of up to 58000.
The momentum of the uptrend is strong enough, but caution is needed due to the decrease in volume and overbought levels.
・米半導体大手エヌビディア(NVDA.O), opens new tabは２８日、第３・四半期（８─１０月）の売上高が３２５億ドル（プラスマイナス２％）になると予想した。市場予想（３１７億７０００万ドル）とほぼ一致する水準にとどまり、株価は引け後の時間外取引で６％下落した。
☆Candlestick chart (Rating: 4/5)
Tendency to form multiple consecutive positive candlesticks from the low point on 9/6.A typical Sakata's Five Methods pattern of 'Three Red Soldiers' can be observed.Additionally, there is a short-term cycle pattern of ① uptrend ② sideways movement ③ uptrend, which corresponds to Sakata's Five Methods' 'Three Rising Techniques'.This also corresponds to Sakata's Five Methods' 'Three Rising Techniques'.→ Evidence of riding a typical uptrend in the market.
・However, in the past few days,increasing the upper wickhas become a little concerning.
☆Candlestick Pattern (Rating: 4/5)
・Breaking out of the resistance line of the downtrend since July, significant increase. It can be considered that the short-term downtrend (concern about hard landing) has been overcome for the time being.
・Forming a double bottom. It will be completed by breaking through the neck line around 64,500.After completion, there is room for further rise to around 66,000. However, is it still a bit early for a new high?(Will the neckline of the double top set in July be crossed later? Detailed explanation with Dow Theory)
☆Dow Theory (Rating: 2/5)
・Falling trend materials such as "① Hard landing concerns" and "panic selling after Labor Day on 9/3" lead to a consolidation→falling trend conversion. However, the strength of inflation-related indicators like PCE deflator and the favorable view of the FRB rate cut are seen positively, causing a drop below the level of ① and a conversion from falling to rising trend.
・Currently, being obstructed by falling trend materials "② Re-concern of Harris trade (66000)" and "③ rollback concern of yen carry trade", a trend conversion of such magnitude is required to surpass the previous high updates of ② and ③. Regarding ②, Harris is dominant again in the current presidential election, and as for ③, the Bank of Japan has indicated keeping the current financial policy on 9/20 (postponing the current rate hike and observing the market for rate hikes).
→As an immediate target, it is urgent to break through the criteria of ②. If unable to break through, there is a high possibility that the current level will become a temporary peak, resulting in a potential decline of up to 58000. It is necessary to allow for such a decline.If the upward trend conversion fails, the current level may become a temporary peak. In that case, a decline of up to 58000 should be tolerated at most.
☆Moving Average x Volume Moving Average (Rating: 2.25/5)
・Moving averages: Golden cross occurred with 5/21/50/75-day moving averages. Since the candlestick chart is also above the 5-day moving average, it can be said that there is sufficient momentum (4/5).
・出来高移動平均線:短期/中期移動平均線でデッドクロスが発生しそう。また、9/17～20までに出来高が5.5後半あるのに対して、現在は0.38と激減している。(0.5/5)
→移動平均線からは勢いがまだあるように見えるが、出来高が明らかに減っている。一時休みであるなら問題ないのだか、要注意が必要
☆一目均衡表×DMI(評価: 3.5/5)
・一目均衡表:2役好転中。遅行線がローソク足上に来るのも近い可能性あり。(4/5)
・DMI:9/17にPDI/MDIがクロス。PDI/ADXが追随して上昇(下落→上昇トレンド転換)。その後もPDI/ADXは上昇傾向にあるが、PDIが停滞気味。(3/5)
→There is no doubt that it is in an uptrend, but there seems to be a slight slowdown in the rise.
☆ BOLL x RSI x MACD (Rating: 3.6/5)
・BOLL: Sharp rise to the +2σ level from +1σ on 9/19. Also, moving towards expansion to +2σ. (4/5)Moving towards an expansion to +2σ. (4/5)
・RSI: Sharp rise from 47 to near 60 on 9/17. It is somewhat in the overbought levels in the mid-60s. (2/5)It is somewhat in the overbought levels in the mid-60s. (2/5)
・MACD: Golden cross occurred on 9/11. There is no sign of a potential dead cross occurring thereafter. (5/5)
There is room for the upward momentum to continue. However, It would be wise to be concerned about being somewhat overbought levels.
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Lana129 : Thank you!
ぴるさん OP : Significant increase pattern
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① Trump's approval rating in the presidential election ↑ (surpassing Harris's approval)
② LDP President → Election of a president who supports dovish financial policies
Is it something like this?