TRUMP WINS 🏆 THE ELECTION 🗳: HOW THE MARKET 📉 MAY MOVE 📈 HOW WILL YOU STRATEGIZE⁉️
No matter who wins this election 🗳 I’m taking my whole Life and the Lives of those connected to me - to the next level with or without them 🤷🏽♂️
On Monday, former President Donald Trump surpassed Vice President Kamala Harris in polling support for the first time since August.
This follows betting markets indicating a higher probability of a Trump victory in the upcoming 🗳 election.
Man has a large capacity for effort. In fact it is so much greater than we think it is that few ever reach this capacity. We should value the faculty of knowing what we ought to do and having the will to do it. Knowing is easy; it is the doing that is difficult.
The U.S. stock market is witnessing a revival of the "Trump Trade." Shares in Trump's social media venture, $Trump Media & Technology (DJT.US)$, have soared more than 220% since October, while $Phunware (PHUN.US)$ has jumped over 150% this month.
Cryptocurrency-linked stocks backed by Trump are also rallying, with Bitcoin climbing more than 13% this month.
How to Trade Around the Election
Pre-Election Day
How to Trade Around the Election
Pre-Election Day
The "Trump trade" is gaining traction, but its longevity isn't assured.
Morgan Stanley analyst Vishwanath Tirupattur noted in a recent report that polling indicates a tight race with various potential outcomes for the presidency and Congress. "
Given recent market movements and their priced-in expectations, markets could be caught offside if Harris wins, requiring a reversal," he said.
A Citi report underscores that historically, most asset price volatility occurs before the election. As investors increasingly view Trump as the favorite, it might be prudent to secure gains from Trump-related trades now.
Dirk Willer, Citi's head of global macro strategy and asset allocation, stated, "We've been running Trump trades for some time. Despite investors leaning toward a Trump victory, the polling bias is only slightly in his favor. Thus, we are taking profits in some Trump-biased election trades, while maintaining certain positions."
On Election Day
Since 1928, excluding the period until 1980 when U.S. financial markets typically closed on election days, the S&P 500 has averaged a 0.92% gain with a 77% success rate on election day, indicating general optimism. However, the average return drops to -0.71% the following day, suggesting initial excitement gives way to adjustment.
Citi Wealth's Chief Investment Strategist and Chief Economist Steven Wieting stated that the range for U.S. equities on election night spanned about six percentage points.
"Markets will rapidly attempt to absorb the implications of the election," Wieting said.
Post-Election
Some analysts argue that elections have a limited impact on markets, which are more influenced by economic fundamentals like corporate earnings and interest rates.
Investors are urged to focus on these fundamentals and stick to their long-term strategies rather than attempting to time short-term political or market cycles.
Dennis Chisholm, Fidelity’s Director of Quantitative Market Strategy, notes that financial markets historically show little reaction to presidential and midterm elections. He cautions that trying to adjust investment strategies for expected post-election volatility could be counterproductive.
"If you’re an investor, I would suggest that this shouldn’t be something you focus on," Chisholm advises.
Wall Street firms remain bullish on U.S. stocks, citing seasonal tailwinds expected to drive gains through year-end.
$Goldman Sachs (GS.US)$ Managing Director Scott Rubner recently stated that the November 5 election might act as a "clearing event for risk assets," potentially sparking a rally fueled by "FOMO," or "fear of missing out." Stocks are projected to maintain their upward trajectory, in line with historical trends showing strong returns in November and December.
$Citigroup (C.US)$ holds a positive outlook for U.S. equities, maintaining an overweight position despite election uncertainties. The firm expects favorable conditions as the year concludes, with plans to reassess their stance at the start of the new year when seasonal tailwinds may diminish. They anticipate that developments such as a new administration and upcoming labor market data will provide fresh insights.
The fourth quarter features key holidays—Thanksgiving and Christmas—that could bolster investor sentiment and support stock performance. According to Bank of America research, election years often see strong market performance in November and December, with December posting gains more than 80% of the time.
Potential Beneficiaries from Trump and Harris Policies
Donald Trump’s policy proposals could advantage sectors like tax reduction, deregulation, cryptocurrency, traditional energy, and infrastructure. Conversely, a Harris administration might prioritize welfare, healthcare, green energy, U.S. export growth, and housing support.
Regardless of the election outcome, gold and cryptocurrencies could gain. Trump has vowed to make the U.S. "the crypto capital of the world," while Harris backs a regulatory framework for digital assets. Election-driven geopolitical uncertainties often boost gold demand as a safe haven.
Our analysis identifies potential beneficiary stocks. Companies poised to benefit under Trump include:
1) Trump-linked entities such as $Trump Media & Technology (DJT.US)$ $Phunware (PHUN.US)$ $Rumble (RUM.US)$
2) financials like $JPMorgan (JPM.US)$, $Bank of America (BAC.US)$, $Wells Fargo & Co (WFC.US)$, $Goldman Sachs (GS.US)$ $Evercore (EVR.US)$
3) traditional energy firms $Cheniere Energy (LNG.US)$, $Exxon Mobil (XOM.US)$, $ConocoPhillips (COP.US)$, $Chevron (CVX.US)$, $Occidental Petroleum (OXY.US)$ , $Peabody Energy (BTU.US)$;
4) insurance companies $UnitedHealth (UNH.US)$, $Humana (HUM.US)$;
5) trade protection beneficiaries $Intel (INTC.US)$, $Texas Instruments (TXN.US)$, $Applied Materials (AMAT.US)$, $KLA Corp (KLAC.US)$, $Ford Motor (F.US)$, $General Motors (GM.US)$, $Nucor (NUE.US)$, $Steel Dynamics (STLD.US)$;
6) agricultural equipment manufacturers $Tractor Supply (TSCO.US)$, $Deere (DE.US)$;
8) biotech companies $Eli Lilly and Co (LLY.US)$ $Merck & Co (MRK.US)$. $Tesla (TSLA.US)$, backed by Elon Musk, also favors Trump.
Companies poised to benefit under Harris include clean energy firms $First Solar (FSLR.US)$, $Enphase Energy (ENPH.US)$, $Nextracker (NXT.US)$ ; EV manufacturers $Ford Motor (F.US)$ $General Motors (GM.US)$ $Rivian Automotive (RIVN.US)$ ; consumer stocks $Amazon (AMZN.US)$ $Walmart (WMT.US)$ $Costco (COST.US)$; real estate companies $D.R. Horton (DHI.US)$, $Lennar Corp (LEN.US)$, $PulteGroup (PHM.US)$; and cannabis stocks $Teva Pharmaceutical Industries (TEVA.US)$ $Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (RDY.US)$ $Tilray Brands (TLRY.US)$.
ELECTION 🗳 COUNTDOWN: HOW THE MARKET 📉 MAY MOVE 📈 HOW WILL YOU STRATEGIZE⁉️
Source: Market Watch, Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance, Investing, IG, Fidelity
Source: Market Watch, Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance, Investing, IG, Fidelity
Thank You: Olivia
Extra Credit: I know this is taboo but I refuse not to Help when I can
Not a fan of politics
Definitely an advocate of Helping People and Truth 💯
We have to Pay Attention.
Both sides have very sinister stuff going on.
We vote 🗳 with our Dollar, Our Habits, Our Beliefs, How we Treat Each Other etc WAYYYY more than at the Ballots
We need to UNIFY or we di☠️
It ain’t about who’s in office but we have to stay informed 💯
Poly means Many Ticks is Blood Suckin Leeches - thats a joke
Congress is the opposite of Progress
We The People 🤝 need to Get Together and Fight 🤛🏽 for what we Believe in.
Instead of expecting some Lady or Dude we never met to improve our lives 🤷🏽♂️
Not a fan of politics
Definitely an advocate of Helping People and Truth 💯
We have to Pay Attention.
Both sides have very sinister stuff going on.
We vote 🗳 with our Dollar, Our Habits, Our Beliefs, How we Treat Each Other etc WAYYYY more than at the Ballots
We need to UNIFY or we di☠️
It ain’t about who’s in office but we have to stay informed 💯
Poly means Many Ticks is Blood Suckin Leeches - thats a joke
Congress is the opposite of Progress
We The People 🤝 need to Get Together and Fight 🤛🏽 for what we Believe in.
Instead of expecting some Lady or Dude we never met to improve our lives 🤷🏽♂️
• The U.S. Elections Will Impact the Direction of History. What Else to Watch Beyond the Presidential Race?
Although people often focus on the presidential election, congressional elections are also a focal point of contention between the Democratic and Republican parties. U.S. presidential election is held only every four years, while elections for Congress occur every two years—with all 438 seats in the House of Representatives and one-third of the 100 Senate seats up for grabs. On Election Day, November 5, voters in each state will cast their votes for Senate candidates (if applicable) and House candidates from their districts, ultimately electing the new members of both chambers of Congress.
Although people often focus on the presidential election, congressional elections are also a focal point of contention between the Democratic and Republican parties. U.S. presidential election is held only every four years, while elections for Congress occur every two years—with all 438 seats in the House of Representatives and one-third of the 100 Senate seats up for grabs. On Election Day, November 5, voters in each state will cast their votes for Senate candidates (if applicable) and House candidates from their districts, ultimately electing the new members of both chambers of Congress.
The Senate and House Election Forecast from RealClearPolitics shows that both the Democratic and Republican parties have a chance to win the House elections; for the Senate, the Republicans have a higher likelihood of gaining control.
There are eight possible combinations for the U.S. election results (President x House x Senate, 2 x 2 x 2 = 8). However, only two scenarios are most practical for discussions: the "Red Sweep" (Republicans winning the presidency and both chambers of Congress) and the "Blue Split Government" (Democrats winning the White House and the House of Representatives, while Republicans winning the Senate).
Although U.S. policy is primarily driven by the White House president, having a unified Congress determines the ease of implementing future policies.
• Post-election divergence: Distinct policy directions
A Trump administration likely corresponds to a "Red Sweep," while a Harris administration would encounter a divided Congress. Therefore, under a "Red Sweep," Trump's fiscal policies would be easier to implement, whereas Harris's fiscal policies might face significant cutbacks under a split government. A Harris administration would indicate a less aggressive fiscal stance in the U.S.
1. Trump's "Red Sweep": Expansionary fiscal policy + Tight monetary policy
Expansionary fiscal policy leads to demand-side inflation, while tariffs and immigration policies contribute to supply-side inflation. Trump's policies, such as imposing tariffs on foreign goods, restricting illegal immigration, and deporting undocumented immigrants in the U.S., would mean that the core U.S. inflation (mainly driven by wage inflation) faces upward risks from supply constraints.
Impact on inflation:Sensitivity test shows that Trump’s impact on core PCE is correlated to potential US tariffs on China. By calculating the proportion of goods the U.S. imports from China (13.5%) * the proportion of core goods in the Core PCE (35%) * the tariff rate, we can determine the extent to which inflation is affected. In extreme cases, U.S. core PCE price index could rise by 0.6%.
Tight monetary policy: Although Trump has a political inclination for low interest rates and a weak dollar, the Federal Reserve is likely to tighten monetary policy (reduce or stop rate cuts) in the face of a more resilient economy and sticky inflation. During Trump's last term, he often criticized Powell on platforms such as Twitter, intervening in Federal Reserve policies, especially around the Fed's interest rate hike in December 2018. However, this did not affect the Fed's decision to raise rates at the December 2018 FOMC meeting.
Asset price impact: For U.S. stocks, expansionary fiscal policy benefits the resilience of the economy, which is good for the earnings of stocks, while tight monetary policy is detrimental to the valuation, favoring large-cap value stocks over small-cap growth stocks overall.
2. Harris's "Blue Mixed Victory": Tight Fiscal Policy + Loose Monetary Policy
Tight Fiscal Policy:Harris would face greater challenges in policy implementation. Considering that the Senate is likely to be under Republican control, a Harris victory would face resistance to presidential policy initiatives. Most of Harris's advocated policies involve fiscal budgeting and tax law reforms, which demand stricter legislative processes.
Loose Monetary Policy:With fiscal policy providing weaker support for a soft landing of the U.S. economy, the Federal Reserve would consequently have more room to cut interest rates.
Impact on Asset Prices:U.S. stock is likely to be driven primarily by valuation boosts, while gold and copper would see moderate increases. In contrast to the "Trump trade," if Harris were elected, the macroeconomic environment would be more similar to that of 2019. On the one hand, the Democrats' smaller fiscal measures mean more room for monetary policy, resulting in a combination of a weaker dollar and lower interest rates, which would likely lead to a moderate rise in gold prices. On the other hand, the absence of tariffs impacting bulk commodities would reduce the bearish pressure on copper prices, and a weaker dollar would boost copper.
For U.S. stocks, style-wise, small-cap growth stocks sensitive to valuation are expected to outperform large-cap value stocks sensitive to earnings.
Note:
1. The impact of election results on major asset classes is not straightforward or linear. The order in which new government policies are introduced after the election, along with non-election-related disturbances, adds complexity to market trading.
2. The impact of new policies will not begin until at least the fourth quarter of 2025. Considering that the president will take office in January of the next year, the proposal process for imposing taxes can then commence. Referring to 2018, the process from proposal to initial implementation takes about half a year, so legally, the earliest that tariffs could be implemented would be Q4 2025, with the earliest impact on prices or consumption appearing in Q4.
How much risk can you take⁉️
When it comes to investing, risk and return may come hand-in-hand. If unwilling to take risks, one should not expect returns.
However, it could be dangerous when some only have their eye on the returns and neglect the risks.
So, how to balance risk and return? This depends on how much risk you can take.
Risk tolerance varies from person to person. This is mainly related to 4 factors.
The first factor is age.
A young man in his prime and a retired senior generally have different levels of risk tolerance.
Young people usually have a longer timeline to recover from their losses.
Therefore, they may be more risk-tolerant.
However, many elderly people live off pensions or savings, and may not have other sources of income, which can make them relatively less risk-tolerant.
A commonly cited rule of thumb makes it easier to approach the relationship between age and high-risk assets, such as stocks.
According to this principle, the percentage of stocks people may consider holding is equal to 100 minus their age.
For example, a 30-year-old investor may consider allocating 70% of their idle funds to stocks, while according to this rule, that percentage for an investor aged 70 should be within 30%.
However, this formula can be flexible. You can adjust it according to your situation. But, all else being equal, the principle is the older you are, the lower the proportion of your portfolio that you might want to consider investing in high-risk assets.
The second factor is financial status.
For example, if someone is well-off and has no debt and he is also single, then there is a lot less financial burden on his hands. But if he is married with kids, then living expenses are high, and he might struggle to make ends meet. There is an essential difference between his risk tolerance level in these two situations.
The former is in good financial condition. A slight loss will not affect life. Therefore, the risk tolerance is relatively strong.
The latter's financial situation is already unstable. Losing money on an investment might result in a huge burden on life.
Therefore, the risk tolerance is very weak.
The third factor is individual risk appetite.
Everyone has different perspectives on risks.
Some people are conservative even when they are young and well-off.
They simply do not want to take any risks, thus they are not the best candidates for high-risk investments.
Some people are more radical.
Losing money will not rattle their mindsets. Thus they are willing to take high risks to gain possible high returns.
The fourth factor is the level of investment knowledge.
The essence of risk is uncertainty. Before investing, you will not know the profits or losses it brings.
If you have done your homework in asset analysis with the right investment mindset, you may become more capable of controlling the investment risks perceived by others as huge uncertainty.
Conversely, you'll be walking a thin line if you choose to invest in financial assets that you don't know much about, especially those involving high risk.
To sum up, the investment risk that you can take depends on your age, financial situation, risk appetite, and investment knowledge. Before investing, we must know our situation, and not act on impulse.
#CoachDonnie
When it comes to investing, risk and return may come hand-in-hand. If unwilling to take risks, one should not expect returns.
However, it could be dangerous when some only have their eye on the returns and neglect the risks.
So, how to balance risk and return? This depends on how much risk you can take.
Risk tolerance varies from person to person. This is mainly related to 4 factors.
The first factor is age.
A young man in his prime and a retired senior generally have different levels of risk tolerance.
Young people usually have a longer timeline to recover from their losses.
Therefore, they may be more risk-tolerant.
However, many elderly people live off pensions or savings, and may not have other sources of income, which can make them relatively less risk-tolerant.
A commonly cited rule of thumb makes it easier to approach the relationship between age and high-risk assets, such as stocks.
According to this principle, the percentage of stocks people may consider holding is equal to 100 minus their age.
For example, a 30-year-old investor may consider allocating 70% of their idle funds to stocks, while according to this rule, that percentage for an investor aged 70 should be within 30%.
However, this formula can be flexible. You can adjust it according to your situation. But, all else being equal, the principle is the older you are, the lower the proportion of your portfolio that you might want to consider investing in high-risk assets.
The second factor is financial status.
For example, if someone is well-off and has no debt and he is also single, then there is a lot less financial burden on his hands. But if he is married with kids, then living expenses are high, and he might struggle to make ends meet. There is an essential difference between his risk tolerance level in these two situations.
The former is in good financial condition. A slight loss will not affect life. Therefore, the risk tolerance is relatively strong.
The latter's financial situation is already unstable. Losing money on an investment might result in a huge burden on life.
Therefore, the risk tolerance is very weak.
The third factor is individual risk appetite.
Everyone has different perspectives on risks.
Some people are conservative even when they are young and well-off.
They simply do not want to take any risks, thus they are not the best candidates for high-risk investments.
Some people are more radical.
Losing money will not rattle their mindsets. Thus they are willing to take high risks to gain possible high returns.
The fourth factor is the level of investment knowledge.
The essence of risk is uncertainty. Before investing, you will not know the profits or losses it brings.
If you have done your homework in asset analysis with the right investment mindset, you may become more capable of controlling the investment risks perceived by others as huge uncertainty.
Conversely, you'll be walking a thin line if you choose to invest in financial assets that you don't know much about, especially those involving high risk.
To sum up, the investment risk that you can take depends on your age, financial situation, risk appetite, and investment knowledge. Before investing, we must know our situation, and not act on impulse.
#CoachDonnie
Pelosi ☝🏽
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Coach Donnie OP : We have been here before. Remember, the stock market only exists because it makes money and multiplies wealth. In order to transfer wealth to you and your family you’ll need to be patient.
Last earnings season we saw the same thing with Megacaps and the broader stock market. But it rebounded very well in Sept and Oct. I believe Nov and Dec will be higher for the stock market. Don’t allow market manipulation to cause you to panic sell. Of course, when you buy or sell is your decision.. For me, I’m staying strong and staying long. All will be well’
Coach Donnie OP : ELECTION 🗳 COUNTDOWN: HOW THE MARKET 📉 MAY MOVE 📈 HOW WILL YOU STRATEGIZE⁉️
Coach Donnie OP : What does sweep around your own front door before you sweep around mine
Coach Donnie OP : It’s so easy to be kind to someone you feel you can get something from or learn from or admire but
You can easily judge the character of a man by how he treats those who can do nothing for him.
Coach Donnie OP : Some people are so poor, all they have is money.
BRINGS MORE TO YOU
Your real wealth can be measured not by what you have, but by what you are.
Wealth is not measured by how much money you have, or how many houses you have, or how many cars you have. Wealth is measured by how much gratitude you have in your heart & how you treat people including those who you don’t like. Money, all material things will be left behind.
A man is rich in proportion to the number of things he can afford to let alone.
Wealth is not possessions its what you can afford to live without.
It is not the man who has too little, but the man who constantly craves more, that is poor.
Wealth consists not in having great possessions, but in having few wants.
Excess wealth should be used to benefit others.
True wealth is not measured by how much money you've got in the bank or how many toys you've got. Some of the happiest people in the world don't have a crying quarter, but they've got all the things that mean a lot to them.
Measure your wealth not by the things you have, but by the things for which you would not take money.
ATTITUDE OF GRATITUDE
APPRECIATE WHAT YOU HAVE WITHOUT IDOLIZING IT AND YOU WILL BE BLESSED WITH MORE
There are those who want a swimming pool in their home, while those who have it barely use it.
Those who have lost a loved one miss them deeply, while others who hold them close often complain about them.
Who doesn't have a partner longs for it, but who has it, sometimes doesn't value it.
He who is hungry would give everything for a plate of food, while he who has plenty complains about the taste.
The one who doesn't have a car dreams it, while the one who has it always looks for a better one.
The key is to be grateful, to stop looking at what we have and to understand that, somewhere, someone would give everything for what you already have and don’t appreciate it
#CoachDonnie
Coach Donnie OP : I know this is taboo but I refuse not to Help when I can
with our Dollar, Our Habits, Our Beliefs, How we Treat Each Other etc WAYYYY more than at the Ballots
need to Get Together and Fight 
for what we Believe in.
AND LETS ALSO GO DEEPER TO SEE HOW WE CAN MAKE SOME CHANGES THAT THE ELITE ARENT INCENTIVIZED TO MAKE.
Not a fan of politics
Definitely a fan advocate of Helping People and Truth
We have to Pay Attention.
Both sides have very sinister stuff going on.
Left wing or Right wing Belong to the Same Bird
We vote
We need to UNIFY or we di
It ain’t just about who’s in office but we have to stay informed
Poly means ManyTicks is Blood Suckin LeechesCongress is the opposite of Progress
We The People
Instead of expecting some Lady or Dude we never met to improve our lives
YES LETS VOTE
Aaron Invests (AI) : Gosh looks like we are hitting on history repeating itself since 1929? I find a lot of data report release had been inaccurate lately and governments are cooking the books to impress that who is currently in power is taking charge of will continue to run the election. One way or another I am concern about America turning into a fascist state we do not know who and I don't want that to happen! God put the right governance into power. I pray for America that you will make a wise decision in your Dollars as your dollar is your vote. Make the wise decision on the governance you choose. I would love to say that God Bless America
and her people. May liberty be the law and justice of this land. 
May democracy be put into power. The land of the free as the forefathers would want it to be. Peace
Coach Donnie OP Aaron Invests (AI) : We have to get back to solid values and less trying to emulate what Babylon Ancient Greece Ancient Rome and Nazi Germany did
Coach Donnie OP : "People Have NO IDEA What's Coming For Nvidia..." - Nvidia CEO 2025 Bitcoin Price Prediction - YouTube
Coach Donnie OP : Why is $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ on track to reach a new record high closing price
• $Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$ ordered 400K GB200 chips valued at $10B.
• $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$ purchased 60K GB200 chips worth $2B.
• $Meta Platforms (META.US)$ acquired 360K GB200 chips for $8B.
Demand for Nvidia's Blackwell chip is absolutely INSANE
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