Nintendo Co Ltd, are we finally getting information on the new game console? Expectations are high for the enduring power of the "Switch" model. [Earnings Preview]

The Switch becomes the longest-lived console surpassing the Family Computer!
In July of this year, which marks the 8th year since its release, the sales period of the Switch surpassed that of the "Family Computer" (2686 days of sales period), making it the "longest-lived machine" among Nintendo's home gaming consoles.As we enter the final stages of the life cycle, it is expected that global hardware sales for this period will decrease by 14% compared to the previous period, and software sales will experience a sharp decrease of 17.4%. In line with this, the company is expecting this period's consolidated revenue to be 300 billion yen compared to the previous period.Decreased by 19.3%Net profit of 13.5 trillion yen,Decreased by 38.9%is expected to be 300 billion yen. However, However, at the current sales pace, there are concerns that even achieving the initial annual sales target will be difficult, leading to worries about downward revisions.There is.

▼Switch sales volume has been decreasing, excluding the third quarter which is biased towards the year-end shopping season.

Stock prices also show a sense of overvaluation compared to the past.
Along with the decrease in sales.Stock prices are starting to show a sense of overvaluation compared to historical levels.is beginning to appear.The recent PER (Price Earnings Ratio) is around 24 times.と、It is exceeding 17 times the average of the past 2 years.Competing with Sony Group's game console "PlayStation 5", which has only been released for 4 years. The true strength of the Switch will be tested for the year-end shopping season.

What is the timeline for the successor to the Switch?
Regarding the successor to the Switch, President Shuntaro Furukawa mentioned that they will announce it during the fiscal year ending March 2025.Since the announcement on a 25-year fiscal period, there have been no significant movements.On the 5th, the earnings will be announced, and the earnings call to be held in the morning of the 6th will serve as both a financial results briefing and a management policy explanation, with attention on whether a new management policy focusing on the successor model will be presented.There are no particular movements.Earnings will be announced on the 5th, and the earnings call, which will be held in the morning of the next day on the 6th, will serve as both a financial results briefing and a presentation of the new management policy centered around the successor console, which will be closely monitored.
For a domestic analyst According to estimates, it is expected to be launched in the period from January to June 2025 (in reality, from March to June), turning to operating profit growth in the fiscal year ending March 2026.That. In addition, in a Bloomberg article dated 1st, Senior Analyst Satoshi Fukuda of Tokai Tokyo Research Intelligence Lab said,Hardware announcement in March next year, software announcement in June, release in October-November.Showing an expected timeline with moomoo, it seems highly likely to be released around next spring.
On the other hand, in the gaming industry, if time is spent on anti-resale measures Either way, it is expected that the successor console will drive performance in the long term, with market participants saying that disappointment selling without information disclosure is an investment opportunity.That is the perspective. Furthermore, in a Bloomberg article on the first day, Satoshi Fukuda, Senior Analyst at the Tokai Tokyo Research Intelligence Lab, mentioned.For now, this timeline is provided. On the other hand, in the gaming industry, there is a view that there is a possibility of a release after summer 2025 if time is spent on resale measures.Either way, it is believed that the successor console will drive performance in the long term, with market participants pointing out that disappointment selling without information release can be seen as an investment opportunity.

Unstable exchange rate trends.
Nintendo Co Ltd isThe overseas revenue ratio is high at around 80%, and performance is susceptible to the impact of exchange rate fluctuations.In the first half of this fiscal year, the yen depreciated, but the environment remained volatile with a sudden trend of rapid yen strength in the summer.The company's assumed exchange rate is 140 yen.It is expected that exchange rate fluctuations will continue due to the Bank of Japan's interest rate hikes and the US presidential election, and there is a risk that the expectation of additional gains may diminish.