Will the "Same Rule" be lifted in tonight's employment statistics?

In July 2024, the number of non-agricultural sector employees (employment statistics) fell below market expectations, causing the unemployment rate to rise to 4.3%. Accuracy rate of 100% for predicting the USA economic recessionofSarm economic recession indicatoris Lit up at 0.53 in July.This has led to a growing perception that America has entered a recession, and the market has shifted to risk-off mode. (*The Sam recessions index, devised by former FRB economist Sam, known as the 'Sam Rule,' suggests a recession when the 3-month moving average of the unemployment rate exceeds the 3-month moving average minimum of the past 12 months by 0.50 percentage points, with a historical recession prediction accuracy of 100%. The US unemployment rate is announced every first Friday of the month.)

Subsequently, the unemployment rate improved in August and September, with the Sam recession index decreasing from 0.57 in August to 0.50 in September.Ease worries about economic downturnThe market sentiment has turned into a risk-on environment with high stock prices and low bond yields.

Tonight, October employment statistics are finally set to be released, with a high possibility of the 'same rule' being lifted. As the American economy moves past concerns of a recession and continues its prosperity, there is also the potential for a resurgence in inflation, leading to the need for rate hikes again and the possibility of a return to a risk-off environment.