How is the cryptocurrency market now? Will there be a correction? How much will it drop? Let's investigate!
After the US presidential election, cryptocurrencies have shown overwhelmingly high performance. With the prospect of long-term growth also due to the Trump administration's plans to intervene significantly in cryptocurrencies. However, cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin, are currently stagnating at nearly $0.1 million. Will there be room for further growth in the future?
This time, I investigated the following points assuming that a correction will come!
How much will the adjustment be?
Is it okay to buy this adjustment as a dip, or does the moderate adjustment seem likely to prolong the decline?
Please take a look if you are interested!
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Dip stocks![]()
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☆Bitcoin
Market sentiment
- Chart patterns
Breaking above the triangle consolidation formed since early November into an upward trend. Temporarily stalled at $88,000 but broke above the triangle consolidation again, currently consolidating around the resistance line near 0.1 million.
- Elliott Wave Analysis - Fibonacci Analysis
Elliott Wave analysis confirms up to wave 5. Fibonacci analysis indicates a stall at the 100% level from the rise in early November.
→As for the future development"①Temporary adjustment up to $95,000 → Extension occurs from the 5 waves of promotion ($0.1 million~)" "②Falling to around $87,000, forming a head and shoulders pattern / correction 3 waves occur ($83,000~$87,000)"Possible to become.
Trading timing
・Volume Moving Average
After breaking out of the triangle consolidation, a large amount of buying volume has occurred. Short-term/medium-term moving averages are just before the death cross.
Likely to see selling volume increase after the death cross?
In the short term, I believe a downward correction is unavoidable.
・RSI
11月中旬から70～80付近で推移
→市場の買われすぎ水準については、明らかな加熱状態
☆リップル
Market sentiment
- Chart patterns
青色のサポートライン上に上昇。一時(1ドル付近)停滞するも三角持ち合いを上抜けし、現在1.5ドルのレジスタンスラインで停滞中。
- Elliott Wave Analysis - Fibonacci Analysis
Elliot wave analysis confirms up to 3 waves. In Fibonacci analysis, it temporarily rises by over 115% from mid-November, but drops to around 100% in correction.
→As for the future developmentPotential scenarios include:
"① Temporary correction towards $1.4 → entering a medium-term uptrend due to the occurrence of 5 waves (up to $1.7)"
"② Falling to around $1 forming a head and shoulders pattern (near $0.9)"Possible to become.
Trading timing
・Volume Moving Average
Buy volume is predominant, but there is also a considerable amount of sell volume. Short and medium-term moving averages are close to a dead cross.
After a dead cross occurs, it is likely to see selling volume, however, there is still potential for a reversal to buying with low volume.
In the short term, I believe a downward correction is unavoidable.
・RSI
It has been ranging from 70 to 90 since mid-November.
→市場の買われすぎ水準については、明らかな加熱状態
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Stocks to watch![]()
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☆DOGE
Market sentiment
- Chart patterns
Rising above the blue support line. Temporarily stagnating around $0.37, breaking through the triangle consolidation, currently at a standstill at the $0.45 resistance line.
Concerns of a double top on a closing basis.
- Elliott Wave Analysis - Fibonacci Analysis
Currently, Elliott Wave can be confirmed up to wave 3. Regarding Fibonacci analysis, although there was a 100% rise from the high, it has now fallen to around 80%.
→As for the future development① Temporary adjustment to around $0.4 → Entering a medium-term upward trend due to the occurrence of wave 5 (from $0.48)
② Falling to around $0.35, forming a double top ($0.25 - $0.3)Possible to become.
Trading timing
・Volume Moving Average
Since the large buy volume in mid-November, both sell and buy have been at a moderate volume. The short-term/medium-term moving averages are about to have a golden cross with the short-term moving average falling.
In terms of volume, it seems that a large revenue is unlikely to occur. Rather, with the golden cross occurring in the short-term/medium-term moving averages, buy volume is likely to increase.
In the short term, I believe a downward correction is unavoidable.
・RSI
It has been ranging around 70-90 since early November
→市場の買われすぎ水準については、明らかな加熱状態
☆ Ethereum
Market sentiment
- Chart patterns
Rising above the blue support line. After handling a moderate correction decline, it formed a double bottom and is currently stagnant at $3400. There are concerns about a double top based on closing prices.
・Elliott Wave & Fibonacci Analysis
Currently, Elliott Wave can be confirmed up to the 3rd wave. Regarding Fibonacci analysis, it rises 100% at the high.
→As for the future developmentTemporary adjustment to around $3300 → entering a medium-term uptrend due to the development of 5 waves (up to $3500)
Falling to around $3000, forming a double top (near $2800)Possible to become.
☆Trading Timing
・Volume Moving Average
A large volume of buying occurred in the first half of November. However, in the second half of November, selling volume increased due to moderate adjustment. A temporary dead cross occurred in the short-term/medium-term moving average lines but ended up being a false signal. A new dead cross is now occurring.
→ Since the selling volume has been sufficient, is it likely to end up as a false signal again?
☆Overheating
・RSI
Although it rose to around 80 at one point, it experienced a correction decline and fell. Currently, it is holding around 65 with a slight overheated feel.
No significant overheating compared to the above three stocks.
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only.
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ぴるさん OP : How was it?
In the end, even if there was a short-term decline, it became an upward trend in the medium to long term, and it is clear that those who trade from a medium to long-term perspective do not need to worry!
Well then!!
(For short-term traders, it seems to be an excellent opportunity to sell...)
J_M_RIN : As an analyst, I'm watching carefully while Bitcoin is maintaining stability amid active profit-taking on weekends. I believe it's a very positive sign that it's not declining, clearly supported for buying, and cautiously bullish, expecting no major corrections for now.![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
I feel like you're trying to pull it up, but still smiling with narrow eyes.
ぴるさん OP J_M_RIN : It's been too high-speed up until now. Honestly, I think the current adjustment is healthy, and it feels like the celebratory market after Trump's election has come to an end. I'm thinking that money will flow into US stocks and bonds starting from next week.![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
But since the Trump administration hasn't even started yet, it feels like it's too emotional to cut losses here.
It's more meaningful to think about tonight's dinner than to think about adjusting the decline right now.
J_M_RIN ぴるさん OP : Certainly, since I don't currently have any plans to move, I will try to analyze it casually for now.![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")