"Black Friday" sales battle intensifies, creating investment opportunities in the retail trade sector. Which stocks are expected to benefit?

moomooニュース米国株 wrote a column · 15 hours ago

The U.S. stock market was closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving, and trading will resume on Friday. Despite the shortened trading hours, investors' optimistic views remain intact, especially the bullish outlook on small-cap stocks continues to be strong. With the holiday season supporting the entire economy, the expectation of solid personal consumption is expected to further boost market sentiment, as anticipated by many major investment institutions.

According to investment research firm Bespoke Investment Group, summarizing historical movements spanning over 70 years, $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$Summarizing the historical movements, since 1945,the average increase rate of the S&P 500 Index during Thanksgiving week is 60 basis pointsで、感謝祭前日（水曜日）に最高のリターンが発生している。また、金曜日の市場動向も好調だ。

"Black Friday" sales battle intensifies, creating investment opportunities in the retail trade sector. Which stocks are expected to benefit?

Moreover, according to Schaeffer, over the past 50 years, the S&P 500 index has averaged a 0.54% increase during Thanksgiving week, showing a 68% probability of a positive return.

According to BofA Global Research, historically, U.S. stocks measured by the S&P500 index have shown a "solid" return during Thanksgiving week, displaying stronger performance in presidential election years.

Consumer spending trends during the Thanksgiving holiday season
感謝祭ホリデーシーズンにおける消費者支出は近年、特にオンライン・ショッピングに大きな伸びが見られている。全米小売業協会によると、感謝祭、ブラックフライデー、サイバーマンデーの消費総額は5年間で191.2％急増、2017年の14.4 billion90 millionドルから2023年には27.7 billionドルにまで上昇した。オンライン・ショッピングは引き続きこの成長の主な原動力It has become so.

The 2024 holiday season will only be 27 days long from Thanksgiving to Christmas, the shortest since 2019, but early promotions and significant discounts are expected to stimulate strong consumer spending.

According to J.P. Morgan, the penetration rate of e-commerce in the US during this year's holiday season is expected to reach 24.5% of adjusted retail revenue, an increase of 119 basis points from 23.3% in 2023. They also expect online sales to increase by 7.5% compared to the previous year over Thanksgiving and Cyber 5 weekend, highlighting the strong growth of the e-commerce sector.

Who are the winners of 'Black Friday'?
Looking at market data, $SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT.US)$Has recently hit a high for the first time in about 3 years.According to Truist's data,Retail trade has outperformed the S&P 500 index on Black Friday over the past 10 years.。

According to J.P. Morgan, Amazon maintains a 45% top share in US e-commerce, leveraging the momentum of early promotions including 'Prime Big Deal Days' held on October 8-9, expecting around $3.5 billion in revenue growth as the holiday season approaches.

Also, according to Truist analysts, Amazon is expected to be one of the e-commerce companies most likely to expand market share this holiday season. Amazon's North American revenue in the fourth quarter increased by 8.7% year-on-year, surpassing Wall Street's forecast of 8.5% growth from the same period last year.

According to analysts at JK Investment, $Costco (COST.US)$、 $Burlington Stores (BURL.US)$、 $Chewy (CHWY.US)$is expected to be the winner of Black Friday.