Contrary to expectations, overseas investors are selling Toyota shares! Check the impact on performance and stock price levels due to certification fraud.

Check the current location of the stock price.When checking, it is getting close to the upper limit of the range from last autumn to early this year. The resistance line at that time may now be seen as a support line. The psychological milestone of 3000 yen also seems likely.

● What is the nature of this certification fraud?
Regarding the certification 'type designation' application necessary for mass production,On January 26, Toyota received instructions from the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism for an actual investigation.Has been advancing.On June 3rd,In seven models, including those that have already been discontinued since 2014,It was announced that they had conducted tests in ways different from the standards set by the government.Specifically, tests were conducted in six cases in a way different from the methods set by the government. Of these, three cases conducted the tests under stricter conditions than the government's, but that also constitutes" certification fraud".

Perhaps to prevent this certification fraud from leading to a perception of performance issues, Toyota has confirmed through thorough internal verification that there are no performance issues specified by regulations,and there is no need for drivers to refrain from using them. Toyota Times June Issue (June 7th) questioned Chairman Toyoda whether it is safe for everyone currently driving the affected vehicles to continue driving, to which he replied, "It is completely safe and secure, so please rest assured. However, production will stop until we receive approval from the authorities, so I apologize for the inconvenience to those who will be using the cars and I believe there will be some waiting involved.""Is it okay for everyone currently driving the affected vehicles to continue driving with peace of mind?" In response to this question, Chairman Toyoda said, "It is completely safe and secure, so please rest assured. However, production will stop until we receive approval from the authorities, so I apologize for the inconvenience to those who will be using the cars and I believe there will be some waiting involved."

Impact on performance due to authentication fraud company forecast (announced at the earnings release on May 8th).
Toyota, in the earnings announcement on May 8, consolidated passengers carried for the fiscal year ending March 2025Abouta 0.6% increase from the previous period to 9.5 million passengers carried,of whichexpecting a 6.2% decrease in japan to 1.87 million passengers carried. The decrease in Japan is mainly explained by the impact of Daihatsu's (a subsidiary's) production stoppage due to authentication fraud.The operating profit outlook decreased by 19.7% to 4.3 trillion yen. Significantly lower than the market estimate (Bloomberg aggregate) of 5.342.4 billion yen.。 Regarding the 20% decline in operating income, the guidance is quite conservative.There are quite a few voices pointing out.

However, not only Toyota but also Japanese companies in general tend to show conservative estimates. For example, in the case of Toyota,Fiscal year ending March 24Initially, the operating profit forecast was 3 trillion yen, but it was later revised upwards and achieved a performance landing of 5 trillion 352.9 billion yen. This was accompanied by a easing of semiconductor shortage.Production recovery and a weaker yen became tailwinds.As for sales,excluding Japan, where there was an impact from Daihatsu Industrial and Toyoda Automatic Loom Works halting shipments,、passenger carried increased.[AgroScience Segment] Herbicides saw a significant decrease due to the sales period being brought forward compared to the previous year for agricultural land and golf courses, but revenues increased due to strong demand for railroads and home gardening.

Analysts' views (following the discovery of unauthorized certification at Toyota itself since June 3rd):
According to Bloomberg,Many analysts see limited impact on Toyota's sales and earnings due to authentication fraud.. Some analysts point out that the impact of last year's shipment suspension remained at only 1% to 2% of global sales. An analyst at CFRA Research commented, "The recent scandal is likely to be a minor setback," "not a fundamental issue.""The recent scandal is likely to be a minor setback,""not a fundamental issue," commented an analyst from a major securities firm."The superiority in sales remains unchanged, and normalization from a solid foundation is also the focus for the future," maintaining a buy recommendation."The superiority in sales remains unchanged, and normalization from a solid foundation is also the focus for the future," maintaining a buy recommendation.

● Changes in target stock price (after June 3)
Since the discovery of certification fraud within Toyota itself after June 3, analystsnoted a prominent downward revision of the target stock priceHowever,the downward revision rate remains at 2.5%Due to the stock price falling by 10% or more during the same period,the deviation from the target stock price has widenedcompared to the average target stock priceThe stock price suggests a 21% upside potential (as of June 19).Currently

● Stock Price Valuation (as of June 19).
Toyota Stockpb(Price-to-Book Ratio)is 1.2 timesandSlightly higher than the average of 1.1 times over the past 10 yearsHowever,(Note: JSR, excluding the chemical sector constituents of the Nikkei Semiconductor Stock Index (in weight order). Operating profit growth rate forecast, recent dividend yield, and analyst target stock price for Nippon Chemicals are based on Bloomberg data.)(Price-to-Earnings Ratio)Is 9.1 timesSo, It is below the 10-year average of 10.2 times.。

Overseas investors' trading trends
Upon checking the trading trends of overseas institutions on the Bloomberg terminal, Toyota showed a 20% decline in operating profit forecast.May was dominated by selling pressure.On June 3rd, unauthorized certification irregularities were discovered in Toyota Corporation, leading to a further decline in stock price and no active trading was observed.

However, trading activity picked up significantly from mid-June onwards.On June 17th to 18th, buying dominated.have turned. Some funds reduced positions.However, Several major funds around the world have increased their holdings of Toyota shares.Among the funds, those that increased their positions were overwhelmingly predominant.Several funds also established new positions. However, this is based solely on Bloomberg terminal data and does not cover everything. Nevertheless, as many institutional investors trade through Bloomberg terminals, it can be said to indicate the buying and selling trends of overseas institutional investors to some extent. In other words,It seems that overseas institutional investors are currently buying Toyota shares.。