Overseas players are going against Toyota! Check the impact on earnings and stock price levels that plummeted by 20% due to certification fraud

Current stock priceWhen I checked, it was close to the upper end of the range from around fall last year to the beginning of this year. There is a possibility that the upper price resistance line at that time will be perceived as a lower price support line this time. The 3000 yen mark is also likely to be a psychological milestone.

● What was the authentication fraud this time around?
Regarding the certification “type designation” application required for mass production, ToyotaReceived fact-finding survey instructions from the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism on 1/26, and investigatedI've been moving forward.On June 3rd, “In 7 models, including those that have already been discontinued since 2014,It turns out that the test was carried out by a method different from the standards set by the countryIt was announced, “I did it.” Specifically, tests different from the method determined by the country were carried out in 6 cases. Of these, 3 tests were carried out under stricter conditions than the country, but this also amounts to “certification fraud.”

Maybe it's to prevent current certification fraud from leading to recognition that there is a problem with performance, “within the companyThorough verification confirms that there are no performance issues as stipulated by lawIt has been done, and there is no need for drivers to refrain from using it.” In the June issue of “TOYOTIMES” (6/7), “Is it OK for everyone currently riding in the target car to continue riding with peace of mind?” In response to the question, Chairman Toyoda said, “It's completely safe and secure, so I want you to rest assured. However, production will stop until we receive OK from the authorities, so we apologize for any inconvenience this may cause to those who use that car from now on, and I think they will have to wait.”

● Company forecasts on financial results due to certification fraud (when financial results were announced on 5/8)
Toyota announced financial results on 5/8,Consolidated sales volume for the fiscal year ending 25/3regarding9.5 million units, up 0.6% from the previous fiscal year, of whichJapan expects 6.2% drop to 1.87 million unitsThat's it. The decline in Japan was explained mainly as an effect of Daihatsu Motor (impact of suspension of shipments due to unauthorized certification of subsidiaries).Operating profit forecast is down 19.7% to 4.3 trillion yenSo,It was significantly lower than the market forecast (Bloomberg tally) of 5.342.4 billion yen。 Fairly conservative guidance on a 20% decrease in operating profitThere are quite a few voices pointing that out.

However, not only Toyota, but Japanese companies in general tend to show conservative predictions. For example, in the case of Toyota,Fiscal year ended March '24Whereas the operating profit forecast was initially 3 trillion yen, it was revised upward thereafter, and the actual results landed at 5,352.9 billion yen. As semiconductor shortages easeProduction recovery and depreciation of yen are tailwindsIt became. Regarding sales,Excluding Japan, which was affected by the suspension of shipments of Daihatsu Motor and Toyota Industries、The number of units sold increasedI did it.

● Analysts' point of view (after 6/3, when certification fraud was discovered on the Toyota main body)
According to Bloomberg,It seems that there are many analysts who see the impact of certification fraud on Toyota's sales and earnings limited. Some analysts pointed out that the impact of suspending shipments last year was limited to only 1% to 2% of global sales. The analysts at CFRA Research say”The recent scandal will only be a small blow”, he commented, “It's not a fundamental issue.” Major securities companies are”Sales superiority has not changed, and normalization from a solid foothold will also be the focus of the future”, and the purchase recommendation was maintained.

● Changes in target stock prices (after 6/3)
After 6/3, when certification fraud was discovered on the main body of Toyota, analystsThe downward revision of target stock prices was conspicuous. However,The downward correction rate remains at 2.5%. On the other hand, since stock prices fell 10% or more over the same period,The divergence from target stock prices widensI'm doing it. When compared to the average target stock price,Stock prices suggest room for 21% increase (as of 6/19)Doing it.

● Stock price valuation (as of 6/19)
Of Toyota stockPBR(Ratio of stock price to net assets)Is 1.2 timeswithSlightly higher than 1.1 times the average for the past 10 yearsbutExpected PER(price-earnings ratio)Is 9.1 timesSo,It is 10.2 times lower than the previous 10 averages。

● Foreign investors' trading trends
When I checked the trading trends of overseas institutional investors on the Bloomberg terminal, after Toyota showed the forecast of a 20% decrease in operating profit,May is sales advantageIt was. Certification fraud was discovered at Toyota's main body on 6/3, and when stock prices fell further, there was no active trading.

However, transactions became active from mid-June onwards,Buying advantage from 6/17 to 18It turned to.Some funds have reduced their positionsbutSome of the world's largest funds bought more Toyota shares.In terms of the number of funds, there were overwhelmingly many funds that increased their positions. There were also several fund companies that built new positions. Note that this is just an aggregation of Bloomberg terminals only, and it does not cover everything. However, since there are many institutional investors who trade via Bloomberg terminals, it can be said that it shows trading trends of overseas institutional investors to some extent. In other words,Overseas institutional investors seem to be buying Toyota stock right now。