Quick report for the summer issue of the 2024 Four Seasons Report!
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Summarizing the key points of the summer 2024 issue.
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⚫︎ Forecasted operating profit for the year 2024 (April 2024 to March 2025, based on 3635 companies):
・All industries: Expected increase of 7.1%
・Manufacturing industry: Expected increase of 9.1%
・Non-manufacturing industry: Expected increase of 4.4%
Operating profit estimates for global sectors this term.
- Chemicals: Significant increase in profit of 36.7% compared to the previous term is expected.
- Automobile-related and semiconductor-related electronic materials are doing well.
- Resonac, Asahi Kasei, Nichidenko are performing well.
- Semiconductors: Machinery and electric appliances also have high profit margins.
- Tokyo Electron Ltd. unsponsored ADR, Disco, Lorthze are expanding.
Service industries and retail trade show high profit growth rates.
Improvement from the pandemic and the expansion of inbound tourists are having an impact.
Growth in DX support and e-commerce, etc.
Industries expecting a decrease in profits:
Electricity and gas industry
Temporary relief from lower fuel costs and delays in tariff adjustments.
・Iron & steel, petroleum and coal products, mining
・Expectation of decreased profits due to a temporary respite in the market
⚫︎注目点
・Increase in companies that raise dividends
・More than 1100 companies have announced dividend increases
・Companies that set a dividend payout ratio in their medium-term plans and continue to increase dividends even with expected profit declines are increasing
The increase of companies disclosing their total return on equity including share buybacks and the dividend on equity (DOE)
Background
Attention to long-term dividend growth stocks due to the start of the new NISA
Strong awareness of PBR and market capitalization due to TSE reform
Premise of exchange rates
Both this and the coming fiscal year assume around 150 yen per dollar and 160 yen per euro