NVDA
NVIDIA
-- 144.470 TSLA
Tesla
-- 410.440 CRNC
Cerence
-- 19.330 PLTR
Palantir
-- 79.890 MSTR
MicroStrategy
-- 339.660 
Summary of the fourth quarter of 2024
Link to the third quarter of 2024👉🏻Summary of the third quarter of 2024
Monthly Earnings:
October profits are moderate, November profits significantly increased, December had a slight loss.
Quarterly Trendlines:
The fourth-quarter return is 37.79%, far higher than the SPX's 3.47%, benefiting from opportunistic markets and disciplined trading within the system.
Annual Trendlines:
The year-to-date return is 67.74%, higher than the SPX's 23.31%; mainly benefiting from a deep self-correction after being hit hard by the market from mid-July to early August. Since then, 100% discipline has been maintained in the trading system, except for not participating in the final quantum computing theme (multiple opportunities to trade quantum computing names appeared in my screener during that time, each time struggling with too large stop loss percentages and giving up). The rest of the major breakout themes such as BTC miners, AI, and small nuclear power have all been involved; the main three entry setups are VCP, flag consolidation, and buy at the end of an uptrend pullback; some experience has been accumulated for entering flags, but there is still plenty of room for improvement.
Top 5 in profit:
In a total of one swing trade, the entry was set to buy after the highest point breakthrough following flag consolidation. Benefiting from tight initial stop loss, not being shaken out, a relatively large initial position was obtained, and three sales (1/3, 1/6, 1/2) were also a moderately systematic selling strategy, both in terms of strategy execution and feedback results. It is a trade that I am quite satisfied with. Currently not holding any positions.
$SoundHound AI (SOUN.US)$ In a total of one swing trade, the entry was set as VCP, with a slightly smaller position, and three sales (1/2, 1/6, 1/3); each of the three sales was somewhat influenced by some personal subjective awareness. The first sale of 1/2 showed insufficient confidence in its strength, the second sale of 1/6 was a respect for the trendline, a small amount of selling was justified, the final sale of the remaining 1/3 was a result of not objectively respecting the strength information of the stock feedback, ultimately biased towards supervisory consciousness. This trade followed KK's rules (10/20MA), and it would have been in line with KK's trading logic to sell after the end of December 31st. It is a trade worth reviewing and learning from. Currently not holding any positions.
$ProShares Ultra Bitcoin ETF (BITU.US)$ This is a simple trade based on the price action of Bitcoin, with a detailed explanation to be provided after the trade settlement. Currently holding 100% of the position.
$MicroStrategy (MSTR.US)$ Divided into three trades. The first entry was a breakout after flag consolidation at the highest point, with three sells (1/3, 1/6, 1/2), which seems reasonable in retrospect. There are no specific details to improve upon. The second trade resulted in a small loss and exiting, while the third trade had a small profit, currently no position held.
$Tesla (TSLA.US)$ A single trade entry, buying in after a pullback. The key to buying in after a pullback is to wait for it to start rising again before entering, otherwise you never know when the pullback will end. Three clear sells (1/3, 1/6, 1/2), personally satisfied with the process and results, currently no position held.
Top 5 losses:
Trading based on corrections from the third quarter to today, with a personal element of assumptions involved. In the future, no longer adding individual sector trades. This trade became a learning experience, still holding the position.
Legacy trades from the third quarter, classic textbook examples of not cutting losses. Continuous widening of losses into the fourth quarter shows that in the stock market, the majority follow the long-term law of the weak getting weaker. Currently still holding the position.
$Capricor Therapeutics (CAPR.US)$ Two trades entered at flag consolidations, both stopped out at the stop loss, considered normal stop loss trades. Currently no position held.
$NIO Inc (NIO.US)$ Trade connecting the third and fourth quarters, with part of the fourth quarter involving profit-taking, considered a normal trade. Currently no position held.
$GeneDx Holdings (WGS.US)$ The first attempt to enter the flag pattern resulted in a stop-loss exit, and the second attempt to enter the VCP pattern also led to a stop-loss exit, which is considered normal stop-loss trading. Currently, the moving averages are still healthy, and the VCP structure still exists. No positions are being held at the moment.
Summary after settlement of all in-system trades in Q4 2024:
Total of 75 trades completed settlement:
Among them, 30 trades were profitable, totaling a 41.519% profit for the account, with an average profit of 1.384% per trade; detailed breakdown: 0-0.3% 3 trades, 0.301%-0.9% 14 trades, 0.901%-1.5% 4 trades, 1.501%-3% 4 trades, greater than 3.01% 5 trades, with the largest profit at 4.958% (SMR)
45 trades incurred losses, totaling a 12.813% account loss, with an average loss of 0.285% per trade; detailed breakdown: 0-0.3% 30 trades, greater than 0.301% 15 trades, with the largest loss at 0.536% (FREY)
Total profit/loss ratio: 4.856:1 (core of trading)
Win rate: 40% (slightly higher)
The minimum win rate required to maintain profitability with this profit/loss ratio is 17.07%. (Unexpectedly, this also explains why KK can still maintain long-term profitability with a win rate of over 20%)
This chart is the most important data for swing traders personally, which is related to whether they can maintain profitability, and is the core background blueprint that must be considered at all times when participating in each trade.
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As for the market in 2025, I actually have no specific expectations. After more than 2 years of market experience, I slowly began to fully accept the real-time feedback of the market. The core of my trading system has basically formed, and the future lies in optimizing details through each trade.
"Most traders pursue victory, but true success comes from accepting losses as part of the process. The market does not reward perfection, but it rewards persistence.
First is to focus on survival, second is prosperity.
First is to focus on survival, second is prosperity.
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only.
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