【2025 US Stock ETF】 Will the resurgence of 'Animal Spirits' accelerate fund inflows? Selecting 'Basic Stocks + Latecomers' 8 options.

ビットバレー投資家 wrote a column · Dec 27, 2024 07:57

There is only a short time left in 2024.The US stock market in 2024Looking back at the year, although we experienced a 'summer lull market', overall,the S&P 500 Index increased by nearly 30%.The growth rate of major global stock indices is below 20%, highlighting the strength of the US stock market.

In 2025, with tax cuts, deregulation, and Trump's 'America First' policy, President Trump took office.I plan to do so,The "superiority" and attention to US stocks seem to be increasing significantly."Trump 2.0" policy is expected to rekindle the "animal spirits" of US companies, and fund inflows into US stocks may accelerate.The "animal spirits" of US companies are expected to be rekindled by the "Trump 2.0" policy,It is expected that fund inflows into US stocks may accelerate.Attention is expected for US Stock ETFs in 2025including ByteDance, the parent company of TikTok, and OpenAI,ETFs that are expected to benefit from capital inflows for 2025 US Stock ETFs.Picked up.

Top 15 stocks of the recent 1-month flow of US-listed ETFs.
When checking the recent 1-month fund flow of US-listed ETFs, the top 15 stocks includeAdvanced country stock ETFs excluding the United Stateswith only 1 stock, while others include the S&P 500 Index, Nasdaq 100 Index, Dow Jones Industrial Average Index, etc.ETFs that track major US stock indexesLined up.

The top performer, with nearly $30 billion in 1-month flows, wasS&P500指数linked to $iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV.US)$ It became $SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$ and $SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 ETF (SPLG.US)$ , followed by a TOP5 entry, similarly linked to the S&P 500 IndexS&P 500 Equal Weight Indexlinked to $Invesco Exchange Traded Fd Tr S&P 500 Equal Weight Etf (RSP.US)$ 、CRSP US Total Market Index(Which tracks the entire US stock market as a stock price index) linked to $Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI.US)$So, there was a flow of 2 billion to 10 billion dollars.

【2025 US Stock ETF】 Will the resurgence of 'Animal Spirits' accelerate fund inflows? Selecting 'Basic Stocks + Latecomers' 8 options.

The 6th place in terms of one-month flow of about 1.7 billion dollars is $iShares Core S&P Mid-Cap ETF (IJH.US)$It was followed by the ETF exceeding 1 billion dollars, tracking the representative index of tech stocks, the Nasdaq 100 Index. $Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF (QQQM.US)$ Growth Stock ETF, $Vanguard Growth ETF (VUG.US)$ Value Stock ETF, $Vanguard Value ETF (VTV.US)$tracks the Dow Jones Industrial Average, $SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average Trust (DIA.US)$ Dividend Growth Stock ETF, $Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF (VIG.US)$ Premium Income ETF, $JPMorgan Nasdaq Equity Premium Income ETF (JEPQ.US)$Australian Small/Mid Cap ETF. $Vanguard Small-Cap ETF (VB.US)$ and $iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM.US)$ etc.

Attention is expected for US Stock ETFs in 2025
Promises by Mr. Trumpsuch as tax cuts and deregulationare positive factors for US stocks in general, leading to a bullish outlook on US stocks. Multiple Wall Street strategists believe that the "Trump 2.0" policies will reignite the "animal spirits" of US companies, further enhancing the dominance of US stocks. In the past month, the most inflows have been into ETFs tracking the representative US stock index, the S&P 500 Index.The "animal spirits" of US companies are expected to be rekindled by the "Trump 2.0" policy,(※) to be revived again, anticipating the further rise of US stock dominance. Therefore, the most notable USA Stock ETFs for 2025 would includeETFs tracking the S&P 500 Indexwhich have always been led by high-tech stocks embodying the "Animal Spirits".ETF that tracks the Nasdaq 100 Indexseems to expect a consistent inflow of funds. These are considered as USA Stock ETFs"Basic Stocks"correspond to these.

(※According to a Bloomberg report dated November 11th, veteran strategist Ed Yardeni pointed out that expectations for the economic policies of the next US President Trump are unleashing "animal spirits." He mentioned that the S&P 500 stock price index is expected to reach the milestone of 0.01 million by the end of 2029. As a result, in the US stock market, "animal spirits" is rapidly becoming one of the key related keywords of the Trump administration.)

S&P 500 Index ETF
The top two in 1-month flow are $iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV.US)$ and $SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$ It was. Among them, the expense ratio and tracking error (*) are slightly low.IVVThe one-month flow of IVV is close to $30 billion, and the proportion of year-to-date flows exceeds 30%. However,SPYIt can be seen that the flows to IVV have also increased over the past month.

(**Tracking error is an indicator of how much deviation there is from the benchmark index.)

● $iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV.US)$
Aiming to achieve investment results linked to the performance of the S&P 500 Index. Investing in all constituent stocks of the S&P 500 Index, mainly holding large-cap stocks in the USA. Using the Market Cap method quarterly to calculate the weights of the held positions and rebalance.

● $SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$
Aiming to achieve investment results linked to the performance of the S&P 500 Index. Incorporating all constituent stocks of the S&P 500 Index. Mainly holding large-cap stocks in the USA. As a unit investment trust, reinvesting dividends on a quarterly basis.

ETF that tracks the Nasdaq 100 Index
ETF linked to the Nasdaq 100 Index $Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF (QQQM.US)$ and $JPMorgan Nasdaq Equity Premium Income ETF (JEPQ.US)$The one-month flow exceeds 1 billion dollars, with the one-month flow accounting for over 10% of the year-to-date flow, indicating consistent fund inflow. Although not tracking the Nasdaq 100 Index, it is composed of growth stocks. $Vanguard Growth ETF (VUG.US)$It is also experiencing a similar movement.

● $Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF (QQQM.US)$
Aiming to achieve investment results linked to the Nasdaq 100 Index, which includes the top 100 non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq stock market. Similarly, an ETF linked to the Nasdaq 100 Index. $Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$ Known as the budget version.

● $JPMorgan Nasdaq Equity Premium Income ETF (JEPQ.US)$
Aims to provide a significant part of the returns related to the Nasdaq 100 Index, while reducing investor risk by keeping volatility low, and also aiming to increase income.

● $Vanguard Growth ETF (VUG.US)$
Aims to achieve investment performance that tracks the CRSP US Large Cap Growth Index. Invest all assets in the same ratio as the index constituents.

Underperformers in 2024
As stocks to "add on" to the "basic stock list",Underperformers in 2024seem to be on the rise. These stocks may experience a delayed correction due to expectations benefitting from tax cuts and regulatory easing. They seem to be lagging behind the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices in terms of year-to-date performance in 2024.S&P 500 Equal Weight Index ( $Invesco Exchange Traded Fd Tr S&P 500 Equal Weight Etf (RSP.US)$ETFs linked to Dow Jones Industrial Average Index ( $SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average Trust (DIA.US)$), Australian Small/Mid Cap ETF ( $iShares Core S&P Mid-Cap ETF (IJH.US)$や $Vanguard Small-Cap ETF (VB.US)$、 $iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM.US)$), Dividend Increase Stock ETF ( $Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF (VIG.US)$）is listed as a candidate stock.

When compared to the S&P 500 Index, the composition of the Dow Inc. consists of stocks with high value and cyclical characteristics such as $Goldman Sachs (GS.US)$ and $Home Depot (HD.US)$ 、 $Caterpillar (CAT.US)$Such as the composition ratio of stocks and cyclical stocks is high. These stocks are the top constituent stocks of the S&P 500 index. $Apple (AAPL.US)$ and $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$Compared to the M7 of the seven major US tech companies, they are lagging behind, leading to the difference in year-to-date returns. Small and mid-cap stocks are also lagging behind tech stocks like M7 in 2024. The. $Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF (VIG.US)$ETFs of dividend-increasing stocks have a higher year-to-date growth rate than the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Russell 2000 index, but compared to the S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq 100, there is a sense of lagging behind. The one-month flow of these stocks accounts for 20% of the year-to-date flow, indicating that fund inflows are already accelerating. Among them,DIAやIWM、VIGExceeding over 50%.

● $SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average Trust (DIA.US)$
Aiming to achieve investment results linked to the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index. Holding 30 US large-cap stocks that make up the same Index. Registered as a unit investment trust, it pays dividends equivalent to the underlying securities monthly.

● $iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM.US)$
Aiming to achieve investment results that track the performance of the Russell 2000 Index. Hold USA's Small / Mid Cap stocks. Investing in the bottom 2000 stocks by market capitalization in the Russell 3000 Index. Calculate the weight of the held positions based on market capitalization each quarter and rebalance.

● $Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF (VIG.US)$
ETF tracks the S&P US Dividend Growers Index. Hold USA's Medium / Large Cap stocks. Focus on investing in US common stocks (excluding REITs) with a track record of consecutive dividend increases over the past 10 years. Calculate the weight of the held positions based on market capitalization.