NVDA
NVIDIA
-- 131.760 TSLA
Tesla
-- 396.360 RGTI
Rigetti Computing
-- 8.9500 AMD
Advanced Micro Devices
-- 116.090 PLTR
Palantir
-- 65.910 
2025: Year of reckoning for Tesla
In 2024, Tesla rallied about 70% due to several catalysts: robotaxi unveil, Tesla expected to achieve slight growth in vehicle deliveries in 2024, launch of low cost Model Q which Musk said will increase sales volume by 20% to 30% in 2025, Tesla Model 3 and Model Y will be equipped with unsupervised autonomy and Musk- Trump relationship.
The catalysts which propelled Tesla higher may also prove to be the negative catalysts which may send the stock down this year.
1. 4Q2024 deliveries.
Tesla may deliver fewer vehicles this year than the record 1,808,581 in 2023. Tesla needs to deliver 514,925 vehicles in Q4 to avoid an annual drop year-over-year. Consensus estimate is for a delivery of 511,000.
But according to FactSet, analyst consensus currently forecasts 498,000 vehicle deliveries in Q4. It depends on which one you want to believe.
A figure below 498,000 would most likely send the shares lower.
2. 4Q2024 results.
Tesla cut prices agressively and offered zero-interest financing. This may cause Tesla's gross margin to drop and send the stock lower.
3. Model 3 and Model Y will be equipped with unsupervised autonomy.
Tesla Model Y and Model 3 will be equipped with unsupervised autonomy and will hit the roads in California and Texas by 2Q2025.
4. Launch of low cost Model Q.
Tesla is rumoured to launch the low cost model Q which costs <USD30,000 by 2Q2025. The Model Q is expected to feature fully autonomous driving capabilities.
5. Musk predicted vehicle sales could increase 20% to 30% in 2025.
This means that 2025 deliveries would be 2.34 m.
Tesla stock has already factored in these catalysts and is likely to have peaked at 488.54.
If Tesla falls into the lower Bollinger Band and below support around 362, there may be further downside.
Analysts are skeptical of the 2.34 m deliveries in 2025.
If the rumour of the Model Q turns out to be untrue, Tesla would not be able to grow 2025 deliveries by 30%. Even with the Model Q, analysts are only forecasting 12%-13% growth.
Musk faces flagging demand for Tesla's sparse and aging lineup, a global slowdown in EV sales growth, and rising competition in key markets such as China and the U.S., analysts and industry experts said.
Affordability for customers will continue to be a challenge this year. With auto loans expected to be expensive despite interest rate cuts. That will be made worse when Trump cuts tax incentives for EV buyers.
The Cybercab can be driven with a controller or remote control (teleoperation).
It may be possible that the Models Q, 3 and Y can also be driven with a controller or remote control (teleoperation). It is important that these be used as a last resort only when the robotaxi is stuck and not for normal driving. Otherwise, the EVs are not autonomous.
If any of these negative catalysts occurs, they may send Tesla stock crashing in 2025.
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only.
Read more
Comment
Sign in to post a comment
bullrider_21
Moo Contributor
Follow me to get useful analysis, learn TA and make profitable trades.
Maximise profit 利润最大化
10K
Followers
50
Following
30K
Visitors
Follow
Discussing
Trump 2.0 countdown: What's the next big opportunity in the markets?
🎙️️ Discussion: 1. Could Trump's cryptocurrency policies potentially benefit the crypto market? 2. Might his tariff policies have a positiv
Popular on moomoo
Jan 13 17:43
Trump 2.0 Opportunity Preview: Guess the market winner before the president takes office!
bullrider_21 OP : 4Q2024 deliveries came in very weak and less than expected at 495,570.
bullrider_21 OP : Tesla fell into the lower Bollinger Band. Bearish.
72493356 : Technical aspects will eventually turn around with the reversal of the fundamentals.
Tinkering :
Huatbigbigs : I believed it will crash, the stock is overvalued
bullrider_21 OP Huatbigbigs : That's what I believe.
Dan’l : $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ order forms should include an Addendum to the buyer’s Will (just in case, while they’re waiting).
The bigger picture includes remarkable growth and innovation, but so much of Tesla’s price depends upon sentiment. God bless him, buUut… yuge swings, as wild as some of his tweets, can be triggered by nothing more. And, that makes me nervous, any time I’m holding TSLA and/or TSLL.
bullrider_21 OP Dan’l : If one or more of the catalysts don't occur OR one or more of the negative catalysts occur. There could be selldowns. You have already seen the 4Q2024 deliveries missed expectations and Tesla was sold down.
They may mostly operate the robotaxi using teleoperation and not autonomous. They may miss the full year deliveries target. Then they won't have the huge growth. And the stock may crash.
Dan’l bullrider_21 OP : I think you’ve got TSLA right…
My previous post got clipped:
$Tesla (TSLA.US)$ order forms should include an Addendum to the buyer’s Will (just in case, while they’re waiting).
The bigger picture includes remarkable growth and innovation, but so much of Tesla’s price depends upon sentiment. God bless him, buUut… yuge swings, as wild as some of his tweets, can be triggered by nothing more. And, that makes me nervous, any time I’m holding TSLA and/or TSLL.