20th FOMC -- How will the policy interest rate for the end of December this year, “4.6%” at the time of FOMC in December last year change as predicted by members?
US stocks declined on March 15. The rate of decline was approximately 0.5% for the NY Dow and 0.96% for the Nasdaq index.
FOMC results will be announced on the 20th US time. Economic forecasts and policy interest rate forecasts by FOMC members will be announced. The members' policy interest rate predictions (end of 24 this year) at the time of the previous FOMC in December are described below.
FOMC Member Predictions (23/12)
Policy interest rate at the end of '24
5.25-5.50 2 people
5.00 to 5.25 1 person
4.75-5.00 5 people
4.50-4.75 6 people
4.25-4.50 4 people
4.00 to 4.25 0 people
3.75 to 4.00 1 person
The median value that members predicted for the policy interest rate at the end of this year was 4.6%. The interest rate was as low as 0.775% compared to the current situation of 5.25% to 5.50%. In other words, the market at that time accepted “interest rate cuts of 0.25% 3 times in 24 years.”
According to FED WARCH, the following probability is shown for policy interest rates for December this year on the 15th US time scale.
4.25 to 4.50% 23.3%
4.50 to 4.75% 34.3%
4.75-5.00% 25.1%
5.00 to 5.25% 9.0%
At the current FOMC, attention is being paid to what kind of outlook the members will show for policy interest rates at the end of this year.
The median member forecast for the FOMC in December last year is shown below.
End of '24
1.4% of GDP
Unemployment rate 4.1%
PCE inflation rate (overall) 2.4%
PCE inflation rate (core) 2.4%
The PCE inflation rate at the end of 2012 is expected to rise by 2.4% for both overall and core levels. Attention is being paid to how this inflation rate forecast changes.
Radio NIKKEI commentator Kamata Shinichi
(C) Radio NIKKEI
The copyright of this material belongs to Radio NIKKEI. Please make decisions regarding investments at your own risk
FOMC results will be announced on the 20th US time. Economic forecasts and policy interest rate forecasts by FOMC members will be announced. The members' policy interest rate predictions (end of 24 this year) at the time of the previous FOMC in December are described below.
FOMC Member Predictions (23/12)
Policy interest rate at the end of '24
5.25-5.50 2 people
5.00 to 5.25 1 person
4.75-5.00 5 people
4.50-4.75 6 people
4.25-4.50 4 people
4.00 to 4.25 0 people
3.75 to 4.00 1 person
The median value that members predicted for the policy interest rate at the end of this year was 4.6%. The interest rate was as low as 0.775% compared to the current situation of 5.25% to 5.50%. In other words, the market at that time accepted “interest rate cuts of 0.25% 3 times in 24 years.”
According to FED WARCH, the following probability is shown for policy interest rates for December this year on the 15th US time scale.
4.25 to 4.50% 23.3%
4.50 to 4.75% 34.3%
4.75-5.00% 25.1%
5.00 to 5.25% 9.0%
At the current FOMC, attention is being paid to what kind of outlook the members will show for policy interest rates at the end of this year.
The median member forecast for the FOMC in December last year is shown below.
End of '24
1.4% of GDP
Unemployment rate 4.1%
PCE inflation rate (overall) 2.4%
PCE inflation rate (core) 2.4%
The PCE inflation rate at the end of 2012 is expected to rise by 2.4% for both overall and core levels. Attention is being paid to how this inflation rate forecast changes.
Radio NIKKEI commentator Kamata Shinichi
(C) Radio NIKKEI
The copyright of this material belongs to Radio NIKKEI. Please make decisions regarding investments at your own risk
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