25 or 50?

FOMC meeting- There has not been this coin toss moment before FOMC meetings in a while, but does 25 or 50 bps cut really matter? What investors should focus on is the path of rate cuts as the committee updates new Summary of Economic Projections and Jay Powell’s performance in press conference. The fear and signal of a recession has been conflicted by soft-landing hopes with equities, and bonds are pricing a worst case scenario. What goes up most comes down, and vice versa. CME fed watch shows a 57% of 50bps cut, and I believe this is the right move as I looked ZQ Nov24 closed at 95.37 (4.77%). If the Fed has to and will cut, why not get them in ASAP?

In grand scheme of things, the path is lower highs (if 2Y yield bounces) and second half of September is when the “really September effect” kicks in.

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