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I want to wait and see for 3 months after the interest rate cut.

$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US)$ Following the strong US employment statistics, the market's speculation of an interest rate cut has receded, unfortunately leading to a decline from the rising trend of bonds 😭.
Regardless, it seems that interest rates will move based on the published figures above! Will they rise? Fall? It moves like that 😅 This is fundamental analysis! Currently, the expectation of a 0.5% rate cut at the November FOMC has disappeared, with a 97.4% probability of a 0.25% rate cut, and even a slight 2.6% chance of no rate cut being factored in. The chart is moving so significantly in line with changes in the fundamentals.
Market expectations are still fluctuating based on indicators, but although the employment is strong, it is not exceptionally strong, so if it eventually heads towards a decline, I want to calmly observe without rushing 👀.
* One step forward, one step back in observation = change in degree of anticipation.
Since I have work and swing trading is really difficult 💦, I will buy more TMF and EDV with dividends to avoid being shaken off by the noise 😋.
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  • あなたのはレビオサー : Maybe it's just a no-landing
    Why is it so strong with interest payments etc. from a different dimension

    Even if it's a fabrication, I think it's America that can get through, so I'm on standby with a white flag. Tears

    I think the band will walk for a while again, so I'm thinking of disposing of TMF where the profit is on, buying more TLT, and changing to long-term buybacks

    I've been dreaming for exactly 1 year
    Even so, it's a historically low level in the long run
    I wonder if interest rates will continue to be high

    I wonder if there's still a recession

  • 投資家 t9m OP あなたのはレビオサー : Certainly 🤔
    It's really uneasy to repeatedly make small profits from unrealized losses!?
    Also, if it's a soft landing, there's almost no loss of opportunity, but I'd like to bet on the one with a historically high probability.
    There are also dividends, so I want to be a little more patient 😖 Dividends are collected into EDV under the NISA framework 😅

  • 張遼 : The recession theory does not come true... Although I invested a considerable amount a year ago, haha.
    The capital target has somehow turned into income, haha.

  • 投資家 t9m OP 張遼 : There may not be a recession coming 😭
    I am aiming for capital gains! Although it results in income 😅, it's a good time to aim for both, so it's bond investment! However, the income is gradually getting worse and it's tough 😓. Investing is at your own risk, let's both do our best! 👍

今は米国債一本です! とりあえず1億目指してます😊 YouTubeチャンネルhttps://youtube.com/@user-pr7ge3in4e?si=hWDGiL3V0ehJzwu
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