After-hours review and analysis of Tesla on Friday, May 24th: Try to build positions when the stock price reflects pessimism and maintain a heavy position.

Stock god Warren Buffett first invested in Apple in 2016. After buying, Apple's stock price kept dropping, which led to much ridicule from cynical speculators, saying the stock god was no better than others. The reason for the decline was that revenue declined for the first time since 2003, and iPhone sales also decreased for the first time. The stock price retraced over 30% from its high point in 2015, with a historical low PE ratio of only ten times PE. This gives us a lesson: if you want to maintain a high long-term return, you must buy when the price is relatively reasonable, even with Apple. You cannot just consider the quality of the company and overlook the company's price. By 2020, Buffett, on one hand, praised Apple as a good company, but on the other hand, started reducing his Apple shares by 6% to around 0.0887 million shares when the PE ratio was 40. However, what Buffett did not anticipate was that Apple continued to unleash its potential, and in 2023, Buffett admitted that selling Apple was a mistake.

Buffett's investment in Apple teaches us that even for an excellent company, our return rate is determined by the purchase price. Therefore, the buying price is very important. Although Buffett sold some Apple shares along the way, the reason he was able to maintain his long-term high return is that he bought Apple at a low enough price. Secondly, buying shares of an excellent company at a reasonable price is more important than buying shares of a mediocre company at a good price. If you initially bought Apple shares at $5 and the price dropped to $4 in the short term, your floating loss on paper is 20%. However, if the company is truly outstanding, and if we hold the stock on an annual basis, we will find that now the daily fluctuation in Apple's stock price could exceed $5, which was our initial cost of building the position, soRecognizing excellent companies and maintaining patience are very important. Apple is the company Mr. Duan Yongping is most bullish on.As early as 2011, he started to accumulate positions in Apple. He has also reduced his holdings in Apple at times, but has basically maintained an absolute heavy position. When the stock price drops, how do you maintain your mindset? If you have invested in a good company without Margin, then when the stock price of your company plunges, you should be happy. After you buy Apple, there have been several occasions when Apple has dropped more than 40% from its peak, even 20-30% is quite common. Buffett and Duan Yongping are able to outperform the market in the long term, the most important thing is heavy positions, to put all your eggs in one basket and have confidence in it. The challenge here is how to find an excellent company. For any outstanding company, it will inevitably encounter some problems in its development process, so if you are not doing RSP, try to accumulate positions and layout when the stock price reflects pessimism. Because excellent management and sufficient cash reserves can turn a great company's crisis into an opportunity, then if your holding period is in years, your long-term return on investment is likely to be high.

The position layout must be below 172.000, with 167.500 as the bottom line. 172.000-167.500 is the fund's firepower ambush zone.

One must not have a fixed mindset or stereotype in their mind. When to break free from liking rising prices and disliking falling prices, being able to set aside your ego, follow the trend, counter technical analysis, defy human nature, success is then within reach.

The following are some very important matters that must be clarified as strategic investment targets.

Is Tesla an excellent company?

In 2022, three Nobel Prize winners in physics, Alain Aspect (French physicist), John Francis Clauser (American theoretical physicist and experimental physicist), and Anton Zeilinger (Austrian quantum physicist), conducted a world-class professional assessment of Tesla and its projects: Elon Musk's industrial projects are closely intertwined with Artificial Intelligence (ai) and the Quantum Technology Revolution, making them inseparable and indispensable. Elon Musk owns a total of 9 companies: (1) Tesla, a car company that changes people's way of travel through electricity and solar energy. In just a few years, Tesla surpassed Toyota to become the world's largest car company, firmly holding the position of the sales champion of new energy vehicles several times, helping its stock price soar and break through more than $1130 per share (post split). This also allowed Musk to reclaim the position of the world's richest person, a "double grand slam." Currently, Tesla is the only one of Musk's companies listed, with the others not publicly traded. Tesla is very forward-looking in its layout of high-tech industries. Tesla's stock price will certainly soar over time. Simply put, it is an intelligent electric vehicle company. (2) SpaceX is the only privately owned and operated rocket launch company in the world. Its main product is the Falcon 1-9 reusable launch vehicle. In the 13 years since its establishment, the company has launched rockets more times than NASA, with rockets taking off almost every few days. The interstellar spacecraft (Starship), formerly known as Big Falcon Rocket (BFR). SpaceX plans to use it for manned lunar orbits, missions to Mars, and other space exploration in the future. In short, a company with large reusable rockets. (3) SolarCity was founded in October 2008, specializing in the development of residential photovoltaic projects, located in Foster City, California. Its main research direction is photovoltaic power generation. In short, a company focused on solar power generation. (4) Starlink is dedicated to the deployment and application of satellite systems, planning to build a "Starlink" network composed of about 0.012 million satellites in space between 2019 and 2024, with 1584 satellites deployed in low Earth orbit 550 kilometers above the earth, starting work in 2020. Simply put, a company that turns mobile phones from receiving signals from base stations to "near-earth satellite" phones. (5) Neuralink is dedicated to research on biological and physical interactions, and its product concept is "brain-computer interface." This is also a great and imaginative technology. If successfully developed, humans will no longer need to spend a lot of time learning, or even need to take the university entrance examination. All the knowledge known to humans can be "transplanted" into the brain through the brain-computer interface. Similarly, the memories stored in the human brain can also be stored on physical disks through the brain-computer interface, which may even fundamentally change the course of human history. In short, the human brain has a "usb interface" that can copy memories, knowledge, information, etc. in and out. If successful, human immortality will become a reality. (6) Model π phone, netizens uploaded promotional and demonstration videos of the Tesla phone. The phone is named "Model π" in a very Tesla style. The phone can be charged with solar power and communicates through Starlink, allowing surfing the internet anywhere, even in the desert, ocean, or on top of mountains without being affected, and possibly even communicating for free. In short, a phone that can access the internet anywhere without fees. (7) Hyperloop, a rail transportation company, focuses on closed-loop vacuum magnetic levitation trains. Its research progress is about to enter the experimental operation phase. Ideally, magnetic levitation trains will travel at speeds similar to capsules running in water pipes at maximum speeds. At that time, the distance from Beijing to Shanghai will only take 10 minutes, marking another revolutionary progress in human transportation history. In short, a closed-loop super high-speed rail. (8) The Boring Company's main research direction is underground transit tunnels. In February and May 2021, two tunnels were dug underground at the Las Vegas Convention Center as part of a complete underground transportation system. The LVCC project is expected to officially start operation at CES in January 2021, with a total budget of $52.5 million. In short, inter-city high-speed subways. (9) OpenAI was founded in 2015 with a focus on "non-profit organization" from the beginning, aiming to achieve general artificial intelligence (AGI) in a safe manner for the benefit of all humanity, rather than to make profits for the company's shareholders, and is an open research company where all research results will be published and available for free use. In short, research results will be provided for free to serve the people.

What is the potential of Tesla?

Now Tesla, from being purely an electric vehicle manufacturer, is transforming into a research and manufacturing company with a dual focus on software and hardware in fields like Artificial Intelligence (ai), humanoid robots, and energy storage. Production costs will plummet, while profits will experience exponential growth. Wrapped in a cloak of uncertainties, this transformation has sparked huge differences in the sarcastic financial markets. Only a few visionary strategic investors keenly perceive and recognize and embrace this welcome change.

In 2003, Silicon Valley engineers Abelhard and Töben founded an electric vehicle manufacturing company, paying tribute to the inventor of alternating current, Nikola Tesla, and named the company Tesla Motors. In 2004, Silicon Valley newcomer Musk led a $6.5 million investment in Tesla's Series A financing, becoming Tesla's largest shareholder and chairman. In August 2006, he proposed the "Master Plan," a three-step strategy that has been the guiding force behind Tesla's development.

Build an expensive, niche roadster (Roadster).

With the money earned, create a cheaper, moderately selling car (Model S/X).

With the money earned, create a more economical and popular car model (Model 3).

While achieving the above, also provide zero-emission power generation options.

Tesla entered the automotive industry with high-end, niche electric sports cars. The automotive industry is a typical industry that is intensive in technology and capital, and one of the industries with the lowest survival rates for startups. Regardless of production processes, supply chain management, or corporate brands, Tesla in its early days could not compare to traditional car manufacturers with decades or even centuries of accumulation. Moreover, in the objective environment at that time with battery costs as high as $1000/kWh and the supporting industrial chain not yet mature, the cost of producing either a sports car or an economical practical car was quite expensive. Tesla's strategy was very clear: since the first car was destined to lose money, it was better to launch a high-end electric sports car targeting high-income cohorts, aiming high to completely overturn people's perception of electric vehicles having short range and poor performance.

In July 2006, Tesla officially launched the Roadster sports car, jointly created by Tesla and Lotus Cars in the UK, with a starting price of 0.098 million USD. This supercar has an acceleration of about 3.7 seconds per hundred kilometers and a maximum range of about 400 kilometers. In the initial stages, the acceleration sensation even surpasses traditional sports cars like Ferrari. As the first supercar to use lithium battery technology, Roadster was favored by many Hollywood stars, Silicon Valley executives, and other social celebrities upon its release.

However, constrained by supply chain and core component technological bottlenecks, Roadster's production costs spiraled out of control and mass production became difficult. At that time, under the leadership of CEO Eberhard, the Tesla team focused too much on technical research and performance improvement, neglecting production scheduling and product control, greatly delaying the completion progress of the finished product. In June 2007, just 2 months away from the official start of Roadster production, Tesla had not yet completed the development of the core transmission gearbox. In addition, due to the lack of scale effects in supply chain procurement, the development cost of the initial 50 Roadsters increased from an average of 0.065 million USD to over 0.1 million USD. More than 30 of the 1,000 reserved customers canceled their orders due to delivery delays.

The founder fled and there was high-level turbulence, but Musk took over as CEO to turn the tide. Due to management errors and cost overruns, founder Eberhard was dismissed from the CEO position in August 2007, and Musk took over personally. In order to ensure the normal launch of the Roadster, the Tesla team decided to optimize a gear to replace the newly developed second gear, and began cutting unnecessary expenses. In February 2008, the first Roadster was finally officially delivered.

Due to product positioning and limited audience, the economic benefits of the Roadster were limited. From its launch in February 2008 to its production stop in 2012, the Roadster was sold to more than 30 countries, with global sales of approximately 2,450 units. Calculated at a selling price of 0.098 million US dollars, Tesla only recouped $0.24 billion in cash flow through the Roadster, which was a drop in the bucket for the development and production of the second generation Model S. By the end of 2008, the financial crisis exacerbated Tesla's financial situation, and the company was on the brink of bankruptcy.

As of the quarter ended March 31, 2024, Tesla's revenue was21.301 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of8.69% 。

For the twelve months ended March 31, 2024, Tesla's revenue was94.745 billion US dollarsyear-on-year growth10.12% 。

Tesla's full-year revenue in 2021 was53.823 billion US dollars, compared to 2020increased by 70.67%。

Currently, Tesla is still slowly and tenaciously unleashing its huge potential.

The following statement is considered to be very important by Jerome=Elias:
All the faults in the financial market can be summed up in two words: greed and impatience.

Rise: There are already positions waiting.

Fall: There are reserve funds in place to counter the battle sequence.

JC Family's investing and trading iron rule (it's never too much to emphasize repeatedly):

Win in bear markets; win in amplitudes; win in courage; win in wisdom; win in tolerance; win in learning; win in change; win in adaptation; win in mathematics; win in physics; win in models; win in functions; win in vibrations; win in quantification; win in frameworks; win in moderation; win in probabilities; win in technology; win in psychology; win in agility; win in flexibility; win in oscillations; win in long-term; win in investments; win in mentality; win in resilience.

Lose in closed-mindedness; lose in ego; lose in rigidity; lose in self-abandonment; lose in self-deception; lose in chasing highs; lose in chasing strength; lose in chasing highs; lose in stagnation; lose in one-sidedness; lose in gambling; lose in protecting positions; lose in full positions; lose in financing; lose in offsetting; lose in perpetual motion; lose in gambling; lose in complaining; lose in making excuses; lose in insults; lose in daydreaming; lose in contingency plans; lose in predictions; lose in short-term thinking; lose in impatience; lose in greed; lose in mentality.

98% of people will never break free from their enjoyment of rising markets, aversion to falling markets, and predictions. Without various contingency plans with a certain proportion of protected capital as a strong backup, 98% of people can only end up in failure. Investing and trading are for a living, not for becoming slaves to stocks, not for debating opinions (JC does not engage in opinion debates, not interested), but for winning in investment and trading.

Warning Bells: The first and last chapters of the book of wisdom both say, 'There's no such thing as a free lunch in the world.' Don't expect to make money without hard work just by looking at other people's post-market charts and geometric analyses. Here, at this moment, all of JC's posts are personal expressions of pre-, intra-, and post-market thoughts and explorations, without any presumptuous views and debates, stock recommendations, or inspirational quotes. They cannot be used as a basis for trading. Any gains or losses from trading are solely the individual's responsibility, regardless of the outcome.

We were originally strangers, let alone in finance. Even if you are very capable, in this money-playing financial market, it is easy to be seen as a scammer. Therefore, JC will not use research results as a means to give away money for free, because it is unnecessary. Are there any true friends on the financial market? The road goes to heaven, everyone walks their own path, does their own thing, firm without desires. JC does not rely on or follow you. Apart from Jesus Christ (who is actually God, the Holy Trinity), JC fears no one.

Disclaimer: There are many "stock gods" in the stock market, abbreviated as stock market neurosis, scattered everywhere. They are not in a mental hospital, but they exist in the stock market. Once they leave the stock market, they return to normal. They pursue the dual victory of long and short, which means winning twice. They can do anything, buying high and selling low, guiding and advising, predicting the future. However, they have no contingency plan, no protective funds, all in is their strong suit. So it is better to make it clear.

This article is a personal trading diary, not opinions or stock recommendations. This is a well-regulated U.S. securities market, not the A-share securities market of the Heavenly Dynasty. The blogger has a long-term trading style. However, in special circumstances, such as when the overall market is particularly good and the profit chip ratio exceeds 80-90% for a long time, the blogger will choose to sell and close out to realize floating profits. When the overall market and individual stocks are not good, especially when they are extremely weak, such as when the profit chip ratio is below 21-7%, JC will choose to gradually and randomly build positions with a discrete random variable layout, so ordinary traders should not imitate this operation.

Classics will always be classics. After all these years, they have become middle-aged uncles, but their voices remain unchanged, still so clean and crisp.