Dimming Seven to Slowdown Ions, Five Candidates for the 'New Champion' in the fluctuating super industry! Summary of earnings for the glowing discount format in a high-priced product market.
the largest retailer that has received a buyout offer from a Canadian convenience store giant $Seven & i Holdings (3382.JP)$On the 10th, the supermarket industry is in turmoil as Ito-Yokado announced the separation of non-convenience store operations. General supermarkets surpass Seven. $AEON (8267.JP)$Also, in the interim financial results for the February 2025 period (March-August), profits decreased by double digits, and momentum slowed down.
In contrast to these major two companies, there are companies that are advancing in both performance and stock prices. Many of them are discount formats, matching the increasing consumer trend towards saving in the rising prices environment.An analysis of the latest financial results of the two major companies and the five companies that are advancing.It is expected. Analyzing the latest financial results of two major companies and five emerging companies to consider whether a "new champion" will emerge in the supermarket industry.
In contrast to these major two companies, there are companies that are advancing in both performance and stock prices. Many of them are discount formats, matching the increasing consumer trend towards saving in the rising prices environment.An analysis of the latest financial results of the two major companies and the five companies that are advancing.It is expected. Analyzing the latest financial results of two major companies and five emerging companies to consider whether a "new champion" will emerge in the supermarket industry.
This time, in addition to Seven & i, Aeon, etc. $Pan Pacific International Holdings (7532.JP)$、 $Trial Holdings (141A.JP)$、 $Yaoko (8279.JP)$、 $Daikokutenbussan (2791.JP)$、 $Genky Drug Stores (9267.JP)$Out of the 5 stocks, all of them have updated their stock prices to the highest level during the period, and their performance is also solid. Four of the companies, excluding Yaoko, focus on the discount store format.
The following 3 points are the key points to focus on in the analysis.
1. Trend of increasing revenue and profit (growth potential)
2. Operating margin (earning power)
3. Existing store revenue (year-on-year comparison) (sustainability)
1. Trend of increasing revenue and profit (growth potential)
2. Operating margin (earning power)
3. Existing store revenue (year-on-year comparison) (sustainability)
For details and reasons for each point of interest, refer to the summary of non-food retail earnings in ""Strongest" retail is not Nitori or Fast Retailing?! Top 5 stocks chasing after higher prices, thoroughly comparing operating margin and existing store revenue! [Financial Results Summary]".
1. The trend of increasing revenue and profit.
All 7 stocks were performing well until the previous period, but as of the February 2025 periodSeven & IandIonofThe top 2 companies are decelerating.Done.
Seven & IIn the fiscal year 2023, due to the impact of non-core businesses such as the department store business that was sold by then, revenue has fluctuated depending on the year, but operating profit has increased for three consecutive periods until February 2024, achieving record highs for two consecutive periods. However, for the interim financial results for the period ending in February 2025 (3-8 months), while revenue increased, profits decreased by double digits, leading to a downward revision of the full-year outlook to double-digit decline.In the interim results for the period ending in February 2025 (3-8 months), while revenue increased, profits decreased by double digits, leading to a downward revision of the full-year outlook to double-digit decline.The revenue has been revised upward. The operating profit of overseas convenience store operations decreased significantly by 35% year-on-year due to the impact of the decline in consumption by the middle and lower income groups in the USA along with inflation, with the main domestic convenience store operations also performing poorly, resulting in a 7.8% decline. Supermarket operations such as Ito-Yokado also saw a decrease of over 20%.
IonIn the February 24 term, it achieved three consecutive years of increased revenue and profit, reaching the highest sales and profits ever.In the interim financial results for the February 25 term, like Seven & I Holdings, the operating profit decreased by double digits.Due to rising prices, operating expenses increased, while a decrease in gross profit margin due to strengthened pricing strategies was a factor. However, the full-year outlook maintains the expectation of increased revenue to 10 trillion yen and operating profit to 270 billion yen.
All 7 stocks were performing well until the previous period, but as of the February 2025 periodSeven & IandIonofThe top 2 companies are decelerating.Done.
Seven & IIn the fiscal year 2023, due to the impact of non-core businesses such as the department store business that was sold by then, revenue has fluctuated depending on the year, but operating profit has increased for three consecutive periods until February 2024, achieving record highs for two consecutive periods. However, for the interim financial results for the period ending in February 2025 (3-8 months), while revenue increased, profits decreased by double digits, leading to a downward revision of the full-year outlook to double-digit decline.In the interim results for the period ending in February 2025 (3-8 months), while revenue increased, profits decreased by double digits, leading to a downward revision of the full-year outlook to double-digit decline.The revenue has been revised upward. The operating profit of overseas convenience store operations decreased significantly by 35% year-on-year due to the impact of the decline in consumption by the middle and lower income groups in the USA along with inflation, with the main domestic convenience store operations also performing poorly, resulting in a 7.8% decline. Supermarket operations such as Ito-Yokado also saw a decrease of over 20%.
IonIn the February 24 term, it achieved three consecutive years of increased revenue and profit, reaching the highest sales and profits ever.In the interim financial results for the February 25 term, like Seven & I Holdings, the operating profit decreased by double digits.Due to rising prices, operating expenses increased, while a decrease in gross profit margin due to strengthened pricing strategies was a factor. However, the full-year outlook maintains the expectation of increased revenue to 10 trillion yen and operating profit to 270 billion yen.
In the case of continuous growth in revenue and profit, it operates companies such as Don Quijote.Pan Pac HoldingsandYaokois a "double-edged sword". In the fiscal year ending June 24 and the fiscal year ending March 24, has achieved 35 consecutive years of revenue and profit growth(Pan Pacific HD with operating profit) has established a magnificent achievement.
Pan Pac HoldingsisPan Pacific HD surpassed the target of 2 trillion yen in domestic retail sales, becoming the 5th highest among domestic retailers. Net profit exceeded 80 billion yen for the first time.となった。25年6月期も売上高と営業利益は増収増益を見込んでいる。
Yaokois25年3月期第1四半期（4－6月）決算でも売上高と営業利益が2ケタ増And.通期でも増収増益、売上高は初の700 billion円超えを見込んでいる。
Trial HDYa.大黒天物産isHas continued to increase revenue for 20 periods or more.。Trial HDis5期連続で最高益を更新中。25年6月期は2ケタの増収増益を見込んでおり、売上高は初の800 billion円超を計画Is doing.
大黒天物産Also,過去最高益だった24年5月期に続き、25年5月も増収増益を見込んでいる。第1四半期（6－8月）も利益が2ケタ増の増収増益で推移Done.
GenkyAlso,In the fiscal year ending June 2024, profits increased by double digits, achieving a significant increase in revenue and profit for the 2nd consecutive year, the highest ever. Achieved.In the fiscal year ending June 2025, profits are expected to increase by double digits, achieving a significant increase in revenue and profit. The company's origins can be traced back to drugstores, but now it operates as a discount chain where food sales account for about 70% of revenue. The current expansion area is limited to 5 prefectures: Aichi, Gifu, Fukui, Ishikawa, and Shiga.
Pan Pac HoldingsisPan Pacific HD surpassed the target of 2 trillion yen in domestic retail sales, becoming the 5th highest among domestic retailers. Net profit exceeded 80 billion yen for the first time.となった。25年6月期も売上高と営業利益は増収増益を見込んでいる。
Yaokois25年3月期第1四半期（4－6月）決算でも売上高と営業利益が2ケタ増And.通期でも増収増益、売上高は初の700 billion円超えを見込んでいる。
Trial HDYa.大黒天物産isHas continued to increase revenue for 20 periods or more.。Trial HDis5期連続で最高益を更新中。25年6月期は2ケタの増収増益を見込んでおり、売上高は初の800 billion円超を計画Is doing.
大黒天物産Also,過去最高益だった24年5月期に続き、25年5月も増収増益を見込んでいる。第1四半期（6－8月）も利益が2ケタ増の増収増益で推移Done.
GenkyAlso,In the fiscal year ending June 2024, profits increased by double digits, achieving a significant increase in revenue and profit for the 2nd consecutive year, the highest ever. Achieved.In the fiscal year ending June 2025, profits are expected to increase by double digits, achieving a significant increase in revenue and profit. The company's origins can be traced back to drugstores, but now it operates as a discount chain where food sales account for about 70% of revenue. The current expansion area is limited to 5 prefectures: Aichi, Gifu, Fukui, Ishikawa, and Shiga.
2. operating margin
Seven & IandIonSince it includes a variety of businesses beyond supermarkets, it does not necessarily accurately reflect the actual situation of the retail business.The decrease in operating margin directly results in deteriorating performance.Seven & i saw a significant decrease of 1.25 points in operating margin, while Aeon's operating margin fell below 2%. Seven & i also experienced a significant decrease in the selling and administrative expenses ratio due to the completion of the department store sale, but with operating income falling below the same period last year, gross profit margin also declined.
Seven & IandIonSince it includes a variety of businesses beyond supermarkets, it does not necessarily accurately reflect the actual situation of the retail business.The decrease in operating margin directly results in deteriorating performance.Seven & i saw a significant decrease of 1.25 points in operating margin, while Aeon's operating margin fell below 2%. Seven & i also experienced a significant decrease in the selling and administrative expenses ratio due to the completion of the department store sale, but with operating income falling below the same period last year, gross profit margin also declined.
The company with the highest gross profit margin is Don Quijote, which operates the 'Don Quijote' discount stores.Pan Pac HoldingsFollowing Pan Pacific Holdings, the company with the second highest operating margin among the top five companies excluding the leading two companies is Yaoko, which does not primarily focus on discount formats.
The decline in operating margin can be attributed to the deterioration in performance.YaokoThe difference between gross profit margin and selling and administrative expense ratio is small, but it includes "operating income" of 24.2 billion yen.Realizing an operating profit margin close to 6%.Is doing.Lowering the gross profit margin by 0.3 points to the high 23% range similar to discount chains, enhancing price competitiveness.The company has also achieved a decrease in the selling and administrative expense ratio.Since acquiring the discount supermarket in 2017, the company has been expanding discount format stores, and the effects of low-cost operations are beginning to show.The company's operating profit is 24200000000 yen,The company has been expanding discount format stores since acquiring the discount supermarket in 2017, and the effects of low-cost operations are starting to show.It seems so.
The decline in operating margin can be attributed to the deterioration in performance.YaokoThe difference between gross profit margin and selling and administrative expense ratio is small, but it includes "operating income" of 24.2 billion yen.Realizing an operating profit margin close to 6%.Is doing.Lowering the gross profit margin by 0.3 points to the high 23% range similar to discount chains, enhancing price competitiveness.The company has also achieved a decrease in the selling and administrative expense ratio.Since acquiring the discount supermarket in 2017, the company has been expanding discount format stores, and the effects of low-cost operations are beginning to show.The company's operating profit is 24200000000 yen,The company has been expanding discount format stores since acquiring the discount supermarket in 2017, and the effects of low-cost operations are starting to show.It seems so.
販管費比率の低さでは、Genkyが際立っている。24年6月期は前年度より1ポイント下げ、15％台半ばまで低下した。店舗展開エリアが狭いことも、販管費の抑制につながっているとみられる。同社は「2040年に0.01 million店舗」を目標に、完全標準化と単純化の徹底で年間1000店の高速出店を行う体制づくりを進めている。今後、How to balance multi-store expansion and cost controlseems to be a key point for growth.
Trial HDofAlthough the gross profit margin has increased by 0.65 points, it has not reached 20%. As a result,the operating margin is also low, in the 2% rangeBut, at this momentConsidering it as a "critical moment", the attitude of emphasizing the strength of price competitiveness is evident.can be read.
Daikokuten Bussan has the best balance between gross profit margin and sales and administrative expenses ratio.大黒天物産On one hand, reducing the sales and administrative expenses ratio slightly, while increasing the gross profit margin by 0.65 points,bringing the operating profit margin to the mid-3% range.If the company can continue to maintain the sales and administrative expenses ratio below 20% with its expertise in low-cost operations,it can respond flexibly to price competition with neighboring competing stores.I guess.
Trial HDofAlthough the gross profit margin has increased by 0.65 points, it has not reached 20%. As a result,the operating margin is also low, in the 2% rangeBut, at this momentConsidering it as a "critical moment", the attitude of emphasizing the strength of price competitiveness is evident.can be read.
Daikokuten Bussan has the best balance between gross profit margin and sales and administrative expenses ratio.大黒天物産On one hand, reducing the sales and administrative expenses ratio slightly, while increasing the gross profit margin by 0.65 points,bringing the operating profit margin to the mid-3% range.If the company can continue to maintain the sales and administrative expenses ratio below 20% with its expertise in low-cost operations,it can respond flexibly to price competition with neighboring competing stores.I guess.
3. Revenue from existing stores
Seven & IThe existing store sales of domestic convenience stores, which is the main business of Seven & I, falling below the previous year's level, symbolizes the company's confusion. In particular, the decrease in the number of customers is also a concern for the company.In the material explaining the interim financial results for the February 2025 period, "Improving visit frequency" and "Acquiring new customers" are important issues.に挙げている。
What stands out in the recent existing store sales is the "two pillars"Pan Pac HoldingsandYaokoHowever, there is a significant difference in the factors.Pan Pac HoldingsisSignificantly contributing to the improvement in customer unit pricewhileYaokoisIs driving the increase in number of customersYaokoBy increasing fans, Yaoko is expanding its future growth foundationIt can be said thatPan Pac HoldingsFrom June 22nd, for 28 months,YaokoFrom October 2022 to 24 months, respectivelyExisting store revenue has continued to exceed the previous year's same month, demonstrating a strength that can be called the "new champion"。
In terms of the duration of continued growth in existing store revenueTrial HDIs overwhelming other companies.Until September 2024, existing store revenue has exceeded the previous year's same month for 40 consecutive months。GenkyAlso,23年3月から1年以上既存店がプラスで推移している。直近の客数の伸びではパン・パシHDを上回っており、高速多店舗展開に向けた潜在能力の高さを示している。
大黒天物産Does not disclose the revenue of existing stores.
In terms of the duration of continued growth in existing store revenueTrial HDIs overwhelming other companies.Until September 2024, existing store revenue has exceeded the previous year's same month for 40 consecutive months。GenkyAlso,23年3月から1年以上既存店がプラスで推移している。直近の客数の伸びではパン・パシHDを上回っており、高速多店舗展開に向けた潜在能力の高さを示している。
大黒天物産Does not disclose the revenue of existing stores.
It is expected that the consumer trend towards saving on commodity goods such as food, accelerated by high prices, will continue to rise in the future due to population decline and excessive store presence of supermarkets. In this respect,The strength of the discount store format is expected to become even more prominent in the future.It seems to be the case.
$Seven & i Holdings (3382.JP)$and $AEON (8267.JP)$The deceleration of the top two can also be seen as the beginning. At present, "Don Quixote" $Pan Pacific International Holdings (7532.JP)$leads in scale, but its cost management capabilities now rival those of discount store formats. $Yaoko (8279.JP)$Having strengths in "retail tech", which will be the key to future low-cost operations. $Trial Holdings (141A.JP)$It is also in a good position.
However, $Daikokutenbussan (2791.JP)$Ya. $Genky Drug Stores (9267.JP)$The "latecomers" are also expanding their performance with great momentum, leaving room for a significant change in the power balance. It seems that not only organic growth from their own company, but also leveraging M&A which Aeon excels in,Whether the scale expansion leveraging M&A can be realizedwill also be a crucial factor in determining the "new champion".
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Source: respective HP, moomoo
Source: respective HP, moomoo
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