Top 5 U.S. REITs! Advantage in the rate cut and the Harris lead? 17% upside of high dividend stocks
Looking ahead to the year-end, it can be said that financial policies, presidential elections, and economic trends are important to assess the investment environment for US stocks. Summing up the current expectations for each, "Declining interest rates, favorable outlook for Harris, and concerns about economic slowdownIn this investment environment, which industry is likely to outperform? It is highly likely that the industry that can benefit from all three of the above will emerge.Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)That's it.
This time, I focused on REITs and picked out the "Top 5 US REITs".These include high dividend yields and stocks that have performed well with a 17% increase during the sluggish market in the second half of the year, as well as "AI-related stocks" that have benefited from the data center investment boom.It also includes "AI-related stocks" that have performed well with a 17% increase during the sluggish market in the second half of the year, as well as stocks with good stock prices that benefited from the data center investment boom.
Low interest rates, Mr. Harris' advantage, concerns about the economy?
1) Interest rate reduction cycle leads to lower interest rates
At the FOMC meeting on September 17-18, a rate cut is almost certain, with a high probability of a 0.25% cut. However, Fed watchers point out that a 0.5% cut is also possible. It is expected that the rate cut will continue at the FOMC meetings in November and December. With the start of the rate cut cycle, a decrease in interest rates is expected in the future.
2) Senator Harris is favored in the US presidential election
Regarding the upcoming US presidential election in November, after the televised debate on September 10th, it became clear that Mr. Harris has the advantage. Following the debate, the probability of Mr. Harris winning has increased and surpassed Mr. Trump.
Regarding the upcoming US presidential election in November, after the televised debate on September 10th, it became clear that Mr. Harris has the advantage. Following the debate, the probability of Mr. Harris winning has increased and surpassed Mr. Trump.
3) Concerns about economic slowdown
Recent U.S. economic indicators have been mixed. There are divided opinions on whether it will be a soft landing or entering into a recession, and concerns about economic slowdown remain strong.
Recent U.S. economic indicators have been mixed. There are divided opinions on whether it will be a soft landing or entering into a recession, and concerns about economic slowdown remain strong.
1) Lower interest rates are a tailwind for REITs
REITs raise funds through borrowing to invest in real estate, so they benefit from reduced interest burden in a period of interest rate cuts.
2) Will Harris's housing support measures benefit REIT investment targets?
Harris, who is leading in the US presidential election, has proposed housing support as part of her economic policy. It is expected to benefit the real estate market, which is the investment target of REITs. However, there is a strong sense of uncertainty surrounding the US presidential election. In such situations, similar to the following 3), REITs may be preferred.
Harris, who is leading in the US presidential election, has proposed housing support as part of her economic policy. It is expected to benefit the real estate market, which is the investment target of REITs. However, there is a strong sense of uncertainty surrounding the US presidential election. In such situations, similar to the following 3), REITs may be preferred.
3) REITs are preferred in an environment of economic slowdown concerns and high levels of uncertainty
REITs have characteristics such as stable rental income based on medium to long-term contracts and high dividend yields. Therefore, in market environments with concerns of economic slowdown and high uncertainty, there is a tendency for REITs to be preferred. Based on past experiences, during economic recessions in the USA, the S&P US REIT Index has outperformed the S&P 500 Index.
REITs have characteristics such as stable rental income based on medium to long-term contracts and high dividend yields. Therefore, in market environments with concerns of economic slowdown and high uncertainty, there is a tendency for REITs to be preferred. Based on past experiences, during economic recessions in the USA, the S&P US REIT Index has outperformed the S&P 500 Index.
"Historically, REITs have provided competitive total returns based on high and stable dividend income and long-term capital appreciation. Additionally, with relatively low correlation with other assets, REITs excel in portfolio diversification, reducing the overall risk of the portfolio and enhancing returns." (From the National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts)
While the S&P 500 index has been sluggish since the second half of the year, the S&P US REIT index has been performing well and maintaining an upward trend.
The timing when the S&P USA REIT index sharply rebounded was mid-July when rate cuts began to be considered, coinciding with a period when economic indicators hinted at concerns about economic slowdown. Subsequently, it was reported that Mr. Harris proposed housing support as part of economic policy, further shaping the situation. Considering the possibility that the situation of 'low interest rates, Harris' advantage, and economic concerns' may continue, the upward trend of US REITs may continue.
Top 5 US REITsRegarding, Picked up based on the following conditionsIt was done.
1）Constituent stocks of iShares Core US REIT ETF
2）Market capitalization of 15 billion dollars or more
3）The expected dividend yield is 3% or higher.
4）The average target stock price exceeds the recent closing price.
5）The number of analysts with a buy rating exceeds the total number of sell and hold ratings.
1）Constituent stocks of iShares Core US REIT ETF
2）Market capitalization of 15 billion dollars or more
3）The expected dividend yield is 3% or higher.
4）The average target stock price exceeds the recent closing price.
5）The number of analysts with a buy rating exceeds the total number of sell and hold ratings.
The stocks that meet all of the above conditions are $Prologis (PLD.US)$ 、 $VICI Properties (VICI.US)$ 、 $Invitation Homes Inc (INVH.US)$ 、 $Healthpeak Properties (DOC.US)$ It became. $Equinix Inc (EQIX.US)$ The estimated dividend yield is 2%, and it meets condition 3). However, all other conditions are cleared.
(Note: Please note that the above list includes symbols (PLD, DOC, EQIX) that are currently not tradable. These symbols will be introduced for informational purposes similar to tradable symbols.)
★ $VICI Properties (VICI.US)$
◇A REIT that focuses on experiential real estate.Holding a large-scale and market-leading game facility, hospitality facility, and entertainment facility. One of them is the world-famous Caesars Palace. As part of the company's strategy, it aims to build the highest-quality and most productive experiential real estate portfolio in the United States.
◇A REIT that focuses on experiential real estate.Holding a large-scale and market-leading game facility, hospitality facility, and entertainment facility. One of them is the world-famous Caesars Palace. As part of the company's strategy, it aims to build the highest-quality and most productive experiential real estate portfolio in the United States.
★ $Prologis (PLD.US)$
◇Industrial real estate REIT.Targeting the global market and regional markets in North, Central and South America, Europe, and Asia. Also providing lease for modern logistics facilities. Customers include manufacturing, retail, transportation, and contract logistics industries.
◇Industrial real estate REIT.Targeting the global market and regional markets in North, Central and South America, Europe, and Asia. Also providing lease for modern logistics facilities. Customers include manufacturing, retail, transportation, and contract logistics industries.
★ $Equinix Inc (EQIX.US)$
◇Datacenter REIT.Investing in interconnected data centers. Specializing in network and cloud-neutral data center platforms for cloud, IT, enterprise, network, mobile service providers, and financial companies.
◇Datacenter REIT.Investing in interconnected data centers. Specializing in network and cloud-neutral data center platforms for cloud, IT, enterprise, network, mobile service providers, and financial companies.
★ $Healthpeak Properties (DOC.US)$
◇Healthcare REIT.Investing in healthcare-related real estate such as elderly housing, life sciences, clinics, hospitals, and advanced nursing facilities. Operating in the United States.
◇Healthcare REIT.Investing in healthcare-related real estate such as elderly housing, life sciences, clinics, hospitals, and advanced nursing facilities. Operating in the United States.
★ $Invitation Homes Inc (INVH.US)$
◇Residence reitsOwns and operates detached rental residences, as well as engages in services such as acquisition, underwriting, pre-capital investment, renovation, existing rentals maintenance, and disposal. It operates in the USA.
◇Residence reitsOwns and operates detached rental residences, as well as engages in services such as acquisition, underwriting, pre-capital investment, renovation, existing rentals maintenance, and disposal. It operates in the USA.
(Note: Although trading is currently unavailable, we would like to introduce the information for informational purposes. Some of the top 10 constituent stocks are tradable.)
◇The iShares Core US REIT ETF is a US-based ETF that aims to track the investment performance of the FTSE NAREIT/NAREIT Equity REITs Index.
◇Top 10 combinationsIncluded stocksas follows (as of September 12th)
・ $Prologis (PLD.US)$ Industrial Real Estate REIT
・ $Equinix Inc (EQIX.US)$ Data Center REIT
・ $Welltower Inc (WELL.US)$ ：高齢者向け住宅運営会社や医療提供会社に投資するREIT
◇Top 10 combinationsIncluded stocksas follows (as of September 12th)
・ $Prologis (PLD.US)$ Industrial Real Estate REIT
・ $Equinix Inc (EQIX.US)$ Data Center REIT
・ $Welltower Inc (WELL.US)$ ：高齢者向け住宅運営会社や医療提供会社に投資するREIT
・ $Public Storage (PSA.US)$ ：パブリック・ストレージREIT
・ $Realty Income (O.US)$ Commercial real estate investment trusts:
・ $Realty Income (O.US)$ Commercial real estate investment trusts:
24年9月13日作成 マーケットアナリスト Julie
Source: Created by moomoo Securities from Bloomberg.
Source: Created by moomoo Securities from Bloomberg.
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only.
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おねご : There are many stocks that I can't buy...
ビットバレー投資家 OP おねご : Thank you for your comment. As you pointed out, there are stocks that cannot be traded at the moment, and we will address this in the note. Thank you for your continued support.
えるみー : It feels different to raise and lower interest rates in advance compared to being pressured by the market to do so. Now it's the latter.
andjo ビットバレー投資家 OP : #moomoo Securities