Analysis of the 8.28 FPG Australian dollar trend.

AUDUSD H1

The Australian dollar backtested 0.676 support yesterday, and then the price rose again to test the resistance near 0.68, accompanied by the decline of the US dollar. At 11:30 noon today, the CPI data for July will be released in Australia. The data has been consistently higher than expected since the end of last year, but it fell back last month. This time, the market expects Australian inflation to fall from 3.8% last month to 3.4%. If it meets expectations, the market will consider the possibility of the RBA shifting from hawkish to dovish. This is because the previous inflation stickiness was too strong, forcing the RBA to maintain the current high interest rates and not give the same expectation of interest rate cuts as other major central banks. This is also the reason for the recent sustained rise in the Australian dollar. However, it is also important to note that if the CPI data continues to exceed expectations or even the previous value, the market will continue to hold the expectation that the RBA will not cut interest rates for the whole year, which will further push up the trend of the Australian dollar.

Technically, the Australian dollar has returned to the vicinity of the 0.68 annual high, and the market is waiting for the later CPI data release. In the short term, there will be significant volatility for the Australian dollar, with attention to the movement near 0.680, which may break above or experience a top reversal.

First line of resistance at 0.680, second line of resistance at 0.682, third line of resistance at 0.684.

First line of support at 0.677, second line of support at 0.676, third line of support at 0.675.

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