8.29 FPG gold trend analysis

XAUUSD H4

Yesterday, the US dollar continued its bottom rebound this year, driving gold downward. In the early trading session, gold reached a new historical high point near 2530 and was resisted in the area of dense resistance. The price fell all the way to yesterday's lowest point near 2503 at the opening of the European session. The price continued to be resisted near 2510 during the rebound and continued to hit new low points over the past two days, reaching around 2495 and quickly rebounding. Finally, it closed above 2500. Yesterday, without much fundamental news, the fluctuation of gold was mainly due to the rebound of the US dollar. Currently, according to CME data, the market expects a 50BP interest rate cut in the September interest rate decision to be close to 40%. The next interest rate decision is only 20 days away, and the market is still full of uncertainty, hoping to find clues from more economic data afterwards. The recent focus is on tonight's revision of US second quarter GDP and tomorrow's PCE inflation data. The strong interest rate hikes in the US in the past 22 years to fight inflation may make tomorrow's inflation data the last answer for the US to end the rate hikes and maintain high interest rates.

Technically, in the early trading session, it failed to break new highs and instead retraced from the high, breaking below the previous four-week upward channel and turning into a consolidation. Breaking below the upward channel means that the previous pull-up may come to an end. A triple top pattern has formed near 2530 on the 4-hour chart. Pay close attention to the support level of 2500.

Resistance line 2515 above, second resistance line 2520, third resistance line 2530.

Lower support at 2510, second support at 2500, third support at 2495.

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