8.30 FPG Australian dollar trend analysis

AUDUSD H4

Australia's inflation has fallen somewhat, but it is still higher than market expectations. Currently, according to ASX's RBA Rate Tracker data, the market only has a 20% expectation that the Reserve Bank of Australia will adjust the interest rate from 4.35% to 4.10% at the next decision, and there is an expectation of adjusting to below 4% only in the first quarter of 25 years. The possibility of the September Federal Reserve interest rate decision adjusting the interest rate is already 100%, and it is now a question of whether it will be a 25BP or 50BP adjustment. The RBA still has the potential to be the last major central bank to cut interest rates globally, and due to the interest rate outlook, several investment banks also express bullish sentiment towards the Australian dollar. The recent bottom rebound of the US dollar this year continues to suppress the Australian dollar's rally. It is still necessary to pay attention to the PCE data announced by the USA tonight, which will have a significant short-term impact on the Australian dollar.

Technically, the Australian dollar is mainly in a state of oscillation this week. However, there have been small increases in the high and low points of the price. The 0.680 resistance has shown signs of breaking and pulling back twice. However, the support near 0.676 at the lower end of the short-term range is also quite significant. However, in the long term, since 2021, the weekly level high points have been moving downwards. The current price has refreshed the previous high point of 0.680, but is approaching the previous high of 0.687, and the upper range is temporarily uncertain.

The upper first line of resistance is 0.681, the second line of resistance is 0.682, the third line of resistance is 0.683.

The lower first line of support is 0.678, the second line of support is 0.676, the third line of support is 0.675.

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