This week's earnings and economic calendar (9/16~9/20) Will the market rejoice or be in turmoil with the first move by the US FOMC? Pay attention to the revival of semiconductor stocks and the volatility of exchange rates!

This week's POint
This week in Japanese stocks,It is expected to be significantly influenced by the monetary policies of Japan and the USA.The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting will be held on September 17-18, and the results will have a very significant impact on the market. Additionally, the Bank of Japan's monetary policy decision meeting is scheduled for September 19-20. In the market, a rate cut at the FOMC meeting is considered certain, with a rate cut of 25 basis points expected, but there is also a high possibility of a significant 50 basis points rate cut.

With the rate cut by FOMC,Tailwinds for growth stocks and small/mid cap stocks in the USA, which are also expected to have a positive impact on similar Japanese stocks.Moreover,Good effects are anticipated on Japanese similar stocks. In particular,Semiconductor stocksare a focus area, so if US growth stocks like Nvidia are strong, Japanese semiconductor stocks are also expected to move solidly. Additionally, attention is on the July machinery orders to be announced on the 18th, and the August national consumer price index to be announced on the 20th domestically.

The U.S. stock market will also be greatly influenced by the results of the FOMC. The market had been expecting a 25bp interest rate cut, but after the U.S. newspaper report on the 12th, the possibility of a 50bp interest rate cut has increased. If a significant 50bp interest rate cut, exceeding market expectations, is implemented, there is a possibility of further upward movement in the U.S. stocks. This is because a large rate cut will be perceived by the market as a powerful measure to support the economy. On the other hand, if a large rate cut is seen as suggesting a risk of an economic downturn, there is a possibility of spreading anxiety in the market in the short term. of further rise in U.S. stocks. This is because a large rate cut will be perceived by the market as a powerful measure to support the economy. On the other hand, if a large rate cut is seen as suggesting a risk of an economic downturn, there is a possibility of spreading anxiety in the market in the short term. There is a possibility of spreading anxiety in the market in the short term if a large rate cut is seen as suggesting a risk of an economic downturn.There are also factors that could potentially stimulate economic activity and support the overall stock market rise in the long term, despite the low interest rate environment.

In addition, August retail salesImportant economic indicators such as industrial production are also anticipated to be released, and attention is focused on the impact they will have on the market. If retail sales are weak, there is a possibility that speculation about a 50 basis point interest rate cut will increase and market volatility will rise.

And,Following the FOMC meeting, market attention will shift tothe U.S. presidential electionis shifting towards.It is expected that this will happen. In particular, the future economic policy will be greatly influenced by the results of the presidential election, so the policy announcements and debates of both candidates are likely to have an impact on the market.

This week's USD/JPY exchange rate is very volatile due to the results of the FOMC and BOJ meetings.Nervous development is expected.If the interest rate cut in the FOMC remains at 25bp,There is a possibility of buying back the dollar,If a significant interest rate cut of 50bp is implemented,The yen is likely to strengthen further.In particular, the remarks of BOJ Governor Ueda are attracting attention.If there are comments on the normalization of financial policy, it will be a factor in the strong yen. There is a strong view that the Bank of Japan's meeting in September will be on hold due to market turmoil and the LDP leadership election. However, If there are comments about the next interest rate hike, the market may react sensitively.There is.

Last week's marketMarket points
1. The Nikkei average rebounded for the first time in two weeks, temporarily falling below 26,000 yen.
2. U.S. stocks, recovering from last week's sharp decline, achieved the highest weekly increase rate of the year for the S&P500 and Nasdaq.
3. Market breadth, unexpectedly stagnant despite strong gains.
4. Revival of semiconductor stocks: NVIDIA and Oracle's strong earnings reports leading the market.
5. US bond yields fall to a 52-week low, with the yield curve normalizing.
6. US core CPI exceeds expectations, showing persistent underlying inflation.
7. Speculation of a 50bp rate cut by FOMC reignites.

The Nikkei Average rose 190 yen (0.5%) from the previous week to 0.03 million 6581 yen, rising for the first time in two weeks. Last week, there was volatility from the beginning of the week. Risk-off sentiment spread against the backdrop of concerns about the U.S. economy. Subsequently, the strength of the yen in the foreign exchange market acted as a headwind, and soft conditions continued mainly for export stocks such as semiconductors and automobiles. There were some scenes where it turned into a rebound, but the momentum of buying did not continue.

However, what is noteworthy is that US stocks showed strong gains last week, butthe market breadth did not expand as expected.The market breadth of the S&P 500 index increased slightly from 71.6% to 72.0%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index remained virtually unchanged at 42.79% to 42.80%.

US bond yields decreased to their lowest level in about 52 weeks.The yield curve continues to normalize.The 2-year US Treasury yield fell from 3.654% on the Friday of the week before last to 3.591%, and the 10-year US Treasury yield fell from 3.710% to 3.659% on the Friday of the week before last.

Last week's The focus of economic data is that core inflation rate exceeded expectations.It is. The market initially showed a negative reaction to this data, but sentiment clearly turned bullish afterwards. The breakdown of last week's economic data is as follows:

The stock market had essentially ruled out the possibility of a significant rate cut by the Federal Reserve Board (FRB) in light of recent inflation and employment statistics, but it is now paying attention to the possibility of a 50 basis point rate cut. Traders are predicting a 50 basis point rate cut this week.49%as of last Thursdayincreased significantly.The probability of a 50bp rate cutReports from the Financial Times and The Wall Street Journal (WSJ).According to these reports, it is expected that the extent of the interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve on September 18th will be a delicate judgment. In addition, Bill Dudley, the influential former president of the NY Federal Reserve, stated that there is a 'strong case' for a more substantial rate cut.and sparked a heated debate.In addition, Jensun Juan, CEO of [company name], made a bullish comment.In addition, Jensun Juan, CEO of [company name], made a bullish comment.。