This week's earnings and economic calendar (9/16~9/20): Will the market rejoice or be tumultuous with the first move of the US FOMC? Pay attention to the resurgence of semiconductor stocks and the volatility of exchange rates!

With the rate cut by the FOMC,It will be a tailwind for US growth stocks and small/mid cap stocks.US PCE Price Index revised downward to 2.8% increase for the April-June quarterSimilar positive effects are also expected for similar stocks in Japan.In particular,Semiconductor stocksis a field of interest, and if US growth stocks such as Nvidia show strength, Japanese semiconductor stocks are also expected to move solidly. In addition, attention is also focused on Japan's machinery orders for July to be announced on the 18th, as well as the National Consumer Price Index for August to be announced on the 20th.

The US stock market will also be greatly influenced by the results of the FOMC. The market had been expecting a 25bp rate cut, but after a US newspaper report on the 12th, the possibility of a 50bp rate cut became more likely. If a significant 50bp rate cut, exceeding market expectations, is implemented, there is a possibility of further upward movement in the US stock market. This is because a substantial rate cut is perceived by the market as a strong measure to support the economy. However, if a significant rate cut is perceived as suggesting a risk of economic downturn, there is a possibility of market anxiety spreading in the short term.there is a possibility of further increase in US stocks.This is because a significant rate cut is perceived by the market as a strong measure to support the economy. However, if a significant rate cut is perceived as suggesting a risk of economic downturn, there is a possibility of market anxiety spreading in the short term.In the short term, there is a possibility of market anxiety spreading if a significant rate cut suggests a risk of economic downturn.However, in the long term, the low interest rate environment may stimulate economic activity and become a factor supporting the overall rise of the stock market.

In addition, August retail salesAlso, attention is focused on the announcement of important economic indicators such as industrial production, which may impact the market. If retail sales turn out to be weak, there is a possibility that speculation of a 50 basis point interest rate cut will increase and market volatility will rise.

Last week's phaseMarket points
1. The Nikkei average rebounded for the first time in two weeks, temporarily falling below 26,000 yen.
2. US stocks staged a comeback from last week's sharp decline, with the S&P500 and Nasdaq achieving their highest weekly growth rates of the year.
3. Surprising stagnation in the market despite strong gains.
4. Semiconductor stocks rebound: NVIDIA and Oracle's strong earnings reports are leading the market.
5. US bond yields fall to the lowest level in 52 weeks, with the yield curve undergoing normalization.
6. US core CPI exceeds financial estimates, demonstrating persistent inflationary pressure.
7. Renewed speculation about a 50 basis point rate cut by the FOMC.

The Nikkei average rose for the first time in two weeks, closing at 0.03 million 6581 yen, up 190 yen (0.5%) from the previous week. Last week, there was a turbulent start to the week. A risk-off mood spread against the backdrop of concerns about the US economy. The yen's strength on the foreign exchange market continued to be a headwind, keeping export-related stocks such as semiconductors and automobiles sluggish. There were moments of rebound along the way, but the buying momentum did not continue.

However, it should be noted that US stocks showed strong gains last week, butsurprisingly there was no corresponding expansion in the breadth of the market.The breadth of the S&P 500 index increased slightly from 71.6% to 72.0%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index remained almost unchanged at 42.79% to 42.80%.

US bond yields have generally declined to the lowest level in about 52 weeks.The yield curve continues to normalize.The 2-year US government bond yield fell from 3.654% on the Friday of the week before last to 3.591%, and the 10-year US government bond yield fell from 3.710% on the Friday of the week before last to 3.659%.

Last week's The focus of economic data is that the core inflation rate exceeded expectations.Indeed, the market initially showed a bearish response to this data, but later, the sentiment clearly turned bullish. The breakdown of last week's economic data is as follows:

The stock market, in response to recent inflation and employment statistics, had effectively dismissed the possibility of a significant rate cut by the Federal Reserve. However, attention is now once again focused on the possibility of a 50 basis point rate cut. Traders are considering the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut this week.49%and at the time of last Thursdayit had risen significantly from 15%.The probability of a 50 basis point interest rate cutReports from the Financial Times and The Wall Street Journal (WSJ).It surged due to these reports. According to these reports, the magnitude of the rate cut by the FRB on September 18 is expected to be a delicate judgment. In addition, influential former NY Fed President Bill Dudley has stated that there is "strong evidence" for a more substantial rate cut, fueling the discussion. Apart from the inflation data, the bullish comments from CEO Jensen Huang of NVIDIA."Strong evidence"statedfueled the discussion.