9.18 FPG Australian Dollar Trend Analysis

AUDUSD H4

With only 17 hours left until the Federal Reserve interest rate decision, yesterday's release of US retail sales data caused the US dollar to rise in the short term, with non-US currencies oscillating or falling. However, only the Australian dollar closed higher. The main reason may still be due to the Reserve Bank of Australia's current rate cut expectations lagging behind the Federal Reserve, and the hawkish statement by the Reserve Bank of Australia previously, claiming they will not cut rates in the short term. Besides tonight's early-morning Federal Reserve interest rate decision and Powell's speech, the Australian dollar also needs to pay attention to the Australian unemployment rate released tomorrow morning. This data will to some extent determine whether the Reserve Bank of Australia will maintain its previous hawkish remarks, deciding to stimulate the economy or choose to continue hawkish policies with high interest rates. It will have a significant impact on the Australian dollar's short-term trend.

Technically, the Australian dollar has formed a trendline oscillation from the bottom of 0.662 to a platform of 0.676 in the past five trading days. It is important to pay attention to whether the Australian dollar can stabilize around 0.676, which may challenge the high point of the year if it can hold steady. However, if the Fed's interest rate decision only cuts by 25 basis points or if Australia's unemployment rate continues to rise, it may cause the Australian dollar to continue to fall to the support level of 0.668.

The first resistance level is at 0.676, the second resistance level is at 0.680, and the third resistance level is at 0.682.

The first support level is at 0.673, the second support level is at 0.671, and the third support level is at 0.668.

#This advice is only general advice and does not take into account your specific financial situation and needs. Investing involves risks, so please evaluate carefully.#