9.19 FPG Australian dollar trend analysis

AUDUSD H4

The Fed confirmed a 50BP rate cut last night, with a substantial rate cut and the dot plot showing an expected 75BP rate cut for the year, causing the US dollar to fall to a year-to-date low of 100.2. The Australian dollar also rose along with the US dollar's decline, hitting the second highest point for the year at the mentioned third-line resistance of 0.682 from yesterday's analysis. However, Powell's hawkish speech afterwards stated not to consider the 50BP rate cut as the norm, with no signs of an increased possibility of recession. This led to the US dollar index rebounding, and the Australian dollar also fell back from the 0.682 resistance to 0.674 before closing at 0.676, almost unchanged. However, the release of Australia's employment data at 11:30 today showed an unemployment rate of 4.2%, in line with market expectations. This led the market to believe that the RBA's hawkish comments earlier, stating that there will be no rate cut in the short term, align with previous expectations. The Australian dollar saw little short-term volatility after the data was released, and as of the time of writing, the Australian dollar price remained near 0.674.

Technically, after the Australian dollar hit a year-to-date high of 0.682 in August and touched this level again last night before falling back, short-term attention continues to focus on the support brought to the Australian dollar by the 0.673 level below, as well as the 0.679 resistance above.

Upper first-line resistance 0.676, second-line resistance 0.679, third-line resistance 0.680.

The first level of support is at 0.673, the second level of support is at 0.671, and the third level of support is at 0.668.

#This advice is general in nature and does not take into account your specific financial situation and needs. Investment involves risks, so please assess cautiously.#