Analysis of the FPG Australian dollar trend on September 20th.
AUDUSD H4
Yesterday, Australia's unemployment rate was announced, and the data showed that it matched expectations and remained constant at 4.2%, further supporting the previous view of the Reserve Bank of Australia that there will be no interest rate cut in the near future. There are only 2 trading days left before the RBA interest rate decision, and the market believes that the prospect of the RBA adjusting interest rates next Tuesday is slim. In the case of a widening interest rate differential, it has supported the strength of the Australian dollar in the short term. Yesterday, the Australian dollar reached a new high since January 3rd this year, while the US dollar was declining, and then it encountered resistance and fell back near 0.684. On Wednesday, after the RBA interest rate decision, Australia's CPI data for August will be released. The current previous value is 3.5%. If the inflation data falls below expectations, it may lead to market expectations of an interest rate cut by the RBA, which would result in a decline in the Australian dollar. If inflation data continues to remain high, the RBA may continue to maintain a hawkish stance, supporting further appreciation of the Australian dollar.
Technically, the Australian dollar was blocked below 0.684 yesterday, indicating a bearish arrangement around 0.683-0.684. The single-day fluctuation yesterday was close to a 1.5% increase, indicating the range of the Australian dollar before the release of CPI data next week.
The first-line resistance is 0.681, the second-line resistance is 0.682, and the third-line resistance is 0.684.
The first-line support is 0.678, the second-line support is 0.676, and the third-line support is 0.673.
# This advice is only general advice and does not take into account your specific financial situation and needs. Investment involves risks, so please evaluate carefully. #
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