9.23 FPG gold trend analysis

XAUUSD H4

Last Friday, the price of gold surged by $40, reaching a new historical high of 2625. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points, initiating a new round of rate cuts, which attracted more funds to invest in gold. Today, the PMI data for the manufacturing and service sectors in the United States will be released. This data reflects the economic situation of the United States. Currently, there are still doubts about whether the US economy is entering a recession. If the PMI data is better than expected, it may somewhat boost the attractiveness of the US dollar and cause a downward correction in the price of gold. The revised GDP data for the second quarter will be released on Thursday, and the PCE data for August will be released on Friday. These data will have a significant impact on gold in the short term. Currently, the market expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 75 basis points in 2024. If these rate cuts are allocated to the remaining two rate decisions this year, it means that one of them will cut rates by 50 basis points, and the other one will cut rates by 25 basis points. If the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 50 basis points again, it will further weaken the US dollar and drive up the price of gold.

From a technical perspective, gold broke through the previous high of 2600 on Friday afternoon and retraced near the support level of 2602, confirming the effectiveness of the support level before rising. It closed around 2620. On the weekly chart, there have been two consecutive weeks of strong bullish candles, and last week's weekly chart still showed a bullish pin bar formation, indicating that the bulls are still strong. On the 4-hour chart, over the past three weeks, a steeper upward channel has formed, with the upper boundary currently being resisted around 2625. Be cautious of a top reversal in the channel.

The resistance levels above are 2620 (first line), 2625 (second line), and 2630 (third line).

The support levels below are 2600 (first line), 2585 (second line), and 2570 (third line).

# This advice is only general advice and does not take into account your specific financial situation and needs. Investment involves risks, so please evaluate carefully. #