[9/26] NVIDIA's stock price of $800 is an inevitable future (BCG).
Founder and former CEO Phil Panaro of Boston Consulting Group expects NVIDIA's stock price to reach $800 by 2030.
The same individual mentions that 40% of NVIDIA's datacenter business revenue comes from hyperscalers, indicating significant growth potential. He suggests that in the future, companies, governments, and local authorities will accelerate their investments in AI and Omniverse. Furthermore, he predicts that NVIDIA's annual revenue will reach $600 billion by 2030, about 10 times the current value, stating that as long as NVIDIA continues to produce excellent chips, reaching a stock price of $800 is an almost unavoidable future.
The same individual mentions that 40% of NVIDIA's datacenter business revenue comes from hyperscalers, indicating significant growth potential. He suggests that in the future, companies, governments, and local authorities will accelerate their investments in AI and Omniverse. Furthermore, he predicts that NVIDIA's annual revenue will reach $600 billion by 2030, about 10 times the current value, stating that as long as NVIDIA continues to produce excellent chips, reaching a stock price of $800 is an almost unavoidable future.
(1) Interview
[Oliver Renick] (Schwab Network)
Today, we are joined by Mr. Phil Panaro. Phil is the founder of Boston Consulting Group and a former CEO. Phil, thank you for being here today.
[Phil Panaro] (BCG Founder)
Oliver, thank you.
[Oliver Renick] (Schwab Network)
Recently, as the economy recovers and new growth is expected, the market continues to heavily rely on the technology sector.
At this point, what do you think are the major factors influencing the market?
[Phil Panaro] (BCG Founder)
In my opinion, NVIDIA is in a state of waiting for the release of the next-generation chip, Blackwell. Looking at the previous trend, for example, when "Hopper" was released in September 2022, the stock price was low or flat before the release, but it rose by several hundred percent afterwards. I predict that something similar will happen with Blackwell. The market is waiting for the release of the Blackwell chip in the fourth quarter, and if that materializes, a significant increase in stock price can be expected in 2025.
However, my view that NVIDIA's stock price will reach $800 in 2030 is not just limited to the chip. We are currently at the beginning of the AI revolution, and this is a major reason as it is still in the early stages. In addition, we are in the transition period from Web2 to Web3. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Citibank estimate that this transition will become a $10 trillion market. NVIDIA is seen as a company that supports accelerated computing to achieve this, and it is expected to dominate a large part of that market.
[Oliver Renick] (Schwab Network)
Reflecting on the current situation, it can be seen that hyperscalers are investing billions of dollars. For example, Microsoft has secured 20 years' worth of nuclear energy, but is there no risk in such short-term overinvestment? What benchmarks do you think need to be achieved to justify this move in AI development?
[Phil Panaro] (BCG Founder)
Many talk about NVIDIA's revenue, saying that 40% of it comes from 4-5 hyperscalers. But in fact, this is the strongest reason for the increase in NVIDIA's stock price. Looking at other customers, there are still many companies that have not fully utilized AI. Out of the Fortune 500, 490 companies have not fully implemented AI. This is because they still do not understand AI. Furthermore, there are cities and governments refreshing infrastructure from Web2 to Web3, and countries joining in the arms race of AI, but NVIDIA has not fully entered these areas yet. It is believed that in the future, these areas will account for a significant portion of NVIDIA's revenue.
That is to say, as long as NVIDIA continues to provide excellent chips in the future, there is a potential for the stock price to have no limit, that is my view.
[Oliver Renick] (Schwab Network)
Just to clarify, when you mention $800, you are not talking about before the stock splits, correct?
[Phil Panaro] (BCG Founder)
Yes, last time I appeared, the NVIDIA stock price was $800, and I predicted it would reach $8,000. After the stock splits, it has dropped, but after recalculating, I believe the stock price will return to $800. I'm using the same ratio for a simple calculation, but I will provide specific numbers.
When we last spoke, NVIDIA's annual revenue was about $60 billion. We expect this to grow to $600 billion by 2030. In other words, revenue will increase tenfold. This is because the e-commerce cycle is similar to the growth cycle of the AI revolution.
For example, in 2005, Amazon's stock price was $60, with revenue of $10 billion, but by 2015, revenue had reached $100 billion and the stock price had risen to $600. We anticipate a similar scenario for NVIDIA. Currently at $80 per share, we predict it will reach $800, with revenue growing from $60 billion to $600 billion. This is a well-founded forecast.
However, while this may sound overconfident, I believe this is an almost unavoidable future as long as NVIDIA continues to produce superior chips. Currently, AI penetration into the economy is less than 1%. Significant investments will be made by corporations, cities, municipalities, governments, and the military to effectively utilize AI. It is certain that vast funds will continue to be poured into AI.
[Oliver Lennick] (Schwab Network)
I would like to inquire about the integration of AI into everyday life by governments and local authorities. Is AI already incorporated into processes? It seems to still be predominantly in the private sector, but when do you think it will expand to governments and local authorities? There still seems to be significant growth opportunities ahead, what are your thoughts?
[Phil Panaro] (BCG Founder)
Yes, I actually talk to companies, and I think it's effective to show specific examples.
For example, many city governments are currently exploring how to use AI to automate buildings into autonomous structures through digital twins. Some people may not understand NVIDIA's strengths, but NVIDIA not only provides chips but also offers a digital twin platform called 'Omniverse' and a programming language called 'CUDA'. With these, it is possible to create a digital twin of a physical building and operate the entire building from a smart phone. This enables the automation of all asset infrastructures.
Furthermore, there was a dialogue with a federal government, although specific details cannot be disclosed due to confidentiality. They are appointing AI officers to each department and aiming to digitize all assets. This means digitizing all assets and using digital twins for operations, monitoring, and management.
In short, as mentioned earlier, NVIDIA's current market penetration rate is 40%. Many view this negatively as it is limited to hyperscalers; however, this is actually a big plus showing potential growth. These hyperscalers fully understand the benefits of AI, which is why they continue to invest heavily in AI. On the other hand, there are still many sectors such as companies, local authorities, federal governments, and ultimately the military sector that have not fully utilized the benefits of AI. It is believed that the arms race in AI will begin, and countries, companies, and cities leading in AI will become leading global entities.
[Oliver Renick] (Schwab Network)
That's interesting. The goals are great, and the new perspectives are very intriguing. It may bring us closer to high goals.
Thank you for the valuable insights on the market today influenced by AI. Thank you for today.
[Oliver Renick] (Schwab Network)
Today, we are joined by Mr. Phil Panaro. Phil is the founder of Boston Consulting Group and a former CEO. Phil, thank you for being here today.
[Phil Panaro] (BCG Founder)
Oliver, thank you.
[Oliver Renick] (Schwab Network)
Recently, as the economy recovers and new growth is expected, the market continues to heavily rely on the technology sector.
At this point, what do you think are the major factors influencing the market?
[Phil Panaro] (BCG Founder)
In my opinion, NVIDIA is in a state of waiting for the release of the next-generation chip, Blackwell. Looking at the previous trend, for example, when "Hopper" was released in September 2022, the stock price was low or flat before the release, but it rose by several hundred percent afterwards. I predict that something similar will happen with Blackwell. The market is waiting for the release of the Blackwell chip in the fourth quarter, and if that materializes, a significant increase in stock price can be expected in 2025.
However, my view that NVIDIA's stock price will reach $800 in 2030 is not just limited to the chip. We are currently at the beginning of the AI revolution, and this is a major reason as it is still in the early stages. In addition, we are in the transition period from Web2 to Web3. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Citibank estimate that this transition will become a $10 trillion market. NVIDIA is seen as a company that supports accelerated computing to achieve this, and it is expected to dominate a large part of that market.
[Oliver Renick] (Schwab Network)
Reflecting on the current situation, it can be seen that hyperscalers are investing billions of dollars. For example, Microsoft has secured 20 years' worth of nuclear energy, but is there no risk in such short-term overinvestment? What benchmarks do you think need to be achieved to justify this move in AI development?
[Phil Panaro] (BCG Founder)
Many talk about NVIDIA's revenue, saying that 40% of it comes from 4-5 hyperscalers. But in fact, this is the strongest reason for the increase in NVIDIA's stock price. Looking at other customers, there are still many companies that have not fully utilized AI. Out of the Fortune 500, 490 companies have not fully implemented AI. This is because they still do not understand AI. Furthermore, there are cities and governments refreshing infrastructure from Web2 to Web3, and countries joining in the arms race of AI, but NVIDIA has not fully entered these areas yet. It is believed that in the future, these areas will account for a significant portion of NVIDIA's revenue.
That is to say, as long as NVIDIA continues to provide excellent chips in the future, there is a potential for the stock price to have no limit, that is my view.
[Oliver Renick] (Schwab Network)
Just to clarify, when you mention $800, you are not talking about before the stock splits, correct?
[Phil Panaro] (BCG Founder)
Yes, last time I appeared, the NVIDIA stock price was $800, and I predicted it would reach $8,000. After the stock splits, it has dropped, but after recalculating, I believe the stock price will return to $800. I'm using the same ratio for a simple calculation, but I will provide specific numbers.
When we last spoke, NVIDIA's annual revenue was about $60 billion. We expect this to grow to $600 billion by 2030. In other words, revenue will increase tenfold. This is because the e-commerce cycle is similar to the growth cycle of the AI revolution.
For example, in 2005, Amazon's stock price was $60, with revenue of $10 billion, but by 2015, revenue had reached $100 billion and the stock price had risen to $600. We anticipate a similar scenario for NVIDIA. Currently at $80 per share, we predict it will reach $800, with revenue growing from $60 billion to $600 billion. This is a well-founded forecast.
However, while this may sound overconfident, I believe this is an almost unavoidable future as long as NVIDIA continues to produce superior chips. Currently, AI penetration into the economy is less than 1%. Significant investments will be made by corporations, cities, municipalities, governments, and the military to effectively utilize AI. It is certain that vast funds will continue to be poured into AI.
[Oliver Lennick] (Schwab Network)
I would like to inquire about the integration of AI into everyday life by governments and local authorities. Is AI already incorporated into processes? It seems to still be predominantly in the private sector, but when do you think it will expand to governments and local authorities? There still seems to be significant growth opportunities ahead, what are your thoughts?
[Phil Panaro] (BCG Founder)
Yes, I actually talk to companies, and I think it's effective to show specific examples.
For example, many city governments are currently exploring how to use AI to automate buildings into autonomous structures through digital twins. Some people may not understand NVIDIA's strengths, but NVIDIA not only provides chips but also offers a digital twin platform called 'Omniverse' and a programming language called 'CUDA'. With these, it is possible to create a digital twin of a physical building and operate the entire building from a smart phone. This enables the automation of all asset infrastructures.
Furthermore, there was a dialogue with a federal government, although specific details cannot be disclosed due to confidentiality. They are appointing AI officers to each department and aiming to digitize all assets. This means digitizing all assets and using digital twins for operations, monitoring, and management.
In short, as mentioned earlier, NVIDIA's current market penetration rate is 40%. Many view this negatively as it is limited to hyperscalers; however, this is actually a big plus showing potential growth. These hyperscalers fully understand the benefits of AI, which is why they continue to invest heavily in AI. On the other hand, there are still many sectors such as companies, local authorities, federal governments, and ultimately the military sector that have not fully utilized the benefits of AI. It is believed that the arms race in AI will begin, and countries, companies, and cities leading in AI will become leading global entities.
[Oliver Renick] (Schwab Network)
That's interesting. The goals are great, and the new perspectives are very intriguing. It may bring us closer to high goals.
Thank you for the valuable insights on the market today influenced by AI. Thank you for today.
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NOIR(のあ) : GPU architecture update cycle and AI infrastructure
The evolution of GPU architecture from Hopper to Blackwell significantly contributes to the improvement of AI performance.
Factors influencing the update cycle
* Complexity of AI models: As larger and more complex AI models emerge, the demand for high-performance GPUs increases.
* Introduction of new AI algorithms: New algorithms may not be efficiently run on existing hardware.
LLM and SLM. AI development specialized not only for hyperscalers but also for smaller domains in more specialized fields.
It's beyond imagination how much such things will increase in the future.
$800! Six times the current stock price, right? It may not seem easy to have, but if asked if it doesn't exist, it's not a definite no, right
If it is funds that can be left for a long time, there may be another 5 years.
Becoming a billionaire if it reaches $800.