Outlook for the USA market: Waiting for Nvidia's earnings, Bitcoin reaches an all-time high, Dow Jones starts up $27.

moomooニュース米国株 wrote a column · Nov 20, 2024 22:32

Outlook for the USA market: Waiting for Nvidia's earnings, Bitcoin reaches an all-time high, Dow Jones starts up $27.

Good evening, Moomoo users!Tonight's analysis of NY stocks.

Market Overview
The US market started, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, consisting of high-quality stocks, rose by 27.11 dollars to 43,296.05 dollars. The Nasdaq Composite Index, with a high percentage of technology stocks, started at 18,971.31, down 16.16 points. The S&P 500, consisting of 500 large-cap US stocks, fell by 2.64 points to 5,914.34.

$Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$
$Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$
$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$

Top News
Outlook for tonight
●US stock index futures are on the rise. Market participants are focusing on NVIDIA's performance, which is the largest quarterly earnings announcement after the market close. The dollar rebounded after a 3-day decline, and the yield on US 10-year bonds rose.

●President-elect Donald Trump is scheduled to interview former FRB Governor Kevin Warsh and Apollo's Mark Rowan as candidates for Treasury Secretary. The selection process for Treasury Secretary has been delayed due to internal conflicts. In addition, Howard Ratnic of Cantor Fitzgerald has been nominated as Commerce Secretary.
Russia has expressed readiness to hold discussions with President Trump regarding the ceasefire with Ukraine, but officials from Western countries are skeptical of this move. Investors shifted funds to safe assets such as the bond market and gold due to the escalation of the war the previous day. The first day of trading for Bitcoin ETF options suggests that traders believe there is room for Bitcoin to set further records.

Awaiting Nvidia's financial results.
● $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$Third-quarter earnings are seen as a short-term catalyst for the market, with the options market expecting an 8% price swing. This corresponds to a fluctuation of about $300 billion in market capitalization.
●Wall Street analysts are divided on NVIDIA's new product line, 'Blackwell,' with a wide range of forecasts for the fourth quarter. The consensus is $37.1 billion, but the difference between the highest and lowest estimates is $7 billion.
Some analysts expect the purchase of 'Hopper,' a former model from Blackwell, to be postponed by customers, making this quarter a 'transition period.' According to Joseph Moore of Morgan Stanley, NVIDIA may present a slightly conservative revenue forecast.
Related articles:【Earnings Preview】Nvidia, Will there be a decline following the previous quarter? Concerns about delayed deliveries to Blackwell again, what impact will it have on performance?

Will the bullish market for gold continue in 2024?
Gold is one of the best-performing commodities in 2024, recording continuous highs before a temporary adjustment with a high US dollar after the US presidential election. However, gold bulls have not retreated.
According to UBS, the price of gold is predicted to rise to $1,900 per ounce by the end of next year. This aligns with further upward projections from Goldman Sachs and is attributed to central banks expanding their holdings. The bank also notes that the Republican landslide in the U.S. elections and global geopolitical tensions are enhancing gold's allure.

MSTR's bitcoin strategy has caused the stock price to soar, surpassing major gold mining giants in market capitalization. Meta Platforms follows suit.
● $Strategy (MSTR.US)$Experiencing rapid growth with the 'bitcoin strategy', the stock price surged to $430.54, surpassing the total market capitalization of two of the world's major gold mining companies.

● Recently, MSTR has invested $4.6 billion to purchase an additional 51,780 bitcoins, bringing its total holdings to 331,200 bitcoins. It is also planning a $1.75 billion convertible bonds issuance.
● Peter Schiff points out a positive cycle between MSTR and bitcoin investments, raising doubts about where the expansion of market capitalization will stop.
● The sharp rise in MSTR's stock price has raised concerns about excessive premiums. Currently, investors are paying a premium significantly above the market price per bitcoin.
● $Metaplanet (3350.JP)$Following in the footsteps of MSTR, they announced plans to issue ¥1.75 billion in ordinary bonds to venture into bitcoin investments. The stock price has surged 445% in the past 6 months.

Bridgewater's CIO points out that there is a high chance of choosing a Federal Reserve Board (FRB) chairman who can 'accept' high inflation under President Trump.
Bob Prince, Co-Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of Bridgewater Associates, points out that when the inflation rate reaches around 3%, President Trump may nominate a Federal Reserve Chair more tolerant of higher inflation and advocate for rate cuts.
Prince suggests that President Trump's policies may move the U.S. inflation rate away from the 2% target, hinting at the possibility of the Fed facing a significant turning point in monetary policy.
Analysis indicates that if President Trump executes promises such as tax cuts, immigration restrictions, and tariff hikes, there could be additional pressure on U.S. monetary policy.
Prince mentions that President Trump's policies could boost nominal growth rates, potentially steepening the yield curve, which he states would be positive for the stock market.
Furthermore, companies can offset the impact by raising product prices while facing cost increases, maintaining or expanding profits. In this environment, the stock market is likely to show strong performance.

moomoo News Zeber
Source: moomoo, Bloomberg
This article utilizes auto-translation in some parts.