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-- 129.550 Probability of increase is 90%! Has the stage been set for the year-end rally of US stocks? What are the targets for December?
US stocks have been hitting record highs since the beginning of this year, and considering recent significant performance and historical trends, market sentiment is high.It seems that there is still room for growth until the end of the year.。
Last month's US presidential election triggered a boom in the US stock market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average recorded a 7.5% increase, achieving the milestone of 45,000 points.Both the Nasdaq Composite Index and the S&P 500 Indexeach recorded an increase of 5% or more.Since the beginning of this year, $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$isalmost every 5 days, setting new records,already Updated to the highest level 54 times.Reached an all-time high last week. $Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$The Nasdaq 100 index followed suit. The Russell 2000 index of small-cap stocks has shown a performance that is almost double that of the S&P500 index in the past two weeks. Investors have factored in expectations that President-elect Trump's pro-business policies will stimulate economic growth and corporate profits. At the same time, expectations of rate cuts are boosting market inflows of funds.Almost double the performance of the S&P 500 index.Performance was demonstrated.
At the same time, expectations of rate cuts are boosting market inflows of funds.Some institutions have started to raise their year-end and next year's stock index targets.。
UBS Global Wealth Management's Mr. Haefele stated, "While the threat of tariffs may cause short-term market volatility, the fundamental fundamentals remain strong." Regarding the outlook, he believes that the year will end in a bullish market.
Looking back at history, it is highly likely that this upward trend will continue.
● Will the developments of the previous November indicate the direction of the year-end market?
Since January of this year, the S&P 500 has already been rising until November.26.47%According to past data, in the previous 11 months, when the S&P 500 has risen by at least 20% ten times, 9 out of 10 times achieved further gains in December, with an average increase rate of 2.4%, and the probability of increase reaching 90%.is in effect.
According to Ned Davis Research, a strong market until November is usually.A good sign in the month of the year-end."The momentum leads the price." This is one of the consistently well-tested adages. There is a tendency for further increases to follow a large upward movement. ... The outlook is bullish until the end of 2024.Momentum leads the price.After a significant increase, there is often a trend of continued upward movement.
●The month most likely to rise in a presidential election year.
And the feature of this year is.that the presidential election has boosted bullish sentiment.According to Mr. Detrick, December is the second-best month for the S&P 500 index, following November (the election month), in a presidential election year.with an average return of 1.3% since 1950. Considering the further sharp rise in US stocks during this election month, it seems that this situation is being replicated.Also noteworthy is that the probability of the S&P 500 index rising in December of a presidential election year is the highest in an election year.83.3%being a specialist in NAND only.the easiest month for the index to rise in an election year.updating their record highs since listing earlier this year, with some stocks soaring by more than 1.6 times in stock price over the last 3 months.
Even excluding the impact of the US presidential election, there is no month with a higher likelihood of rising than December.
According to Mr. Sam Stovall of CFRA, December is for the S&P 500The most stable month of increasebeing a specialist in NAND only.With the highest probability of increaseIt is also the month with the lowest volatility, nearly 40% lower than the average of other months since World War II.
Excluding the impact of the US presidential election, from a probability standpoint,There is no month with a higher likelihood of rising than December.ことが分かる。Detrickによれば、過去70年以上にわたり、S&P500が12月に上昇する確率は約75%に達している。
さらに注目すべき点として、米国株式市場において、12月の上昇のほとんどが月の後半に起こる傾向がある。これは主にウォール街で「サンタクロース・ラリーdue to a seasonal phenomenon known as the "Santa Claus Rally". According to past data, investors tend to buy during the 7 trading days after Christmas, which is the last 5 trading days of the year and the first 2 trading days of the following year, and there is a high probability that US stocks will rise. Over the past 70 years, the S&P500 has risen with an 80% probability during these 7 trading daysit has been rising with an 80% probability..
Can we expect the "Santa Claus Rally" this year as well?
Currently, there are several optimistic signs. The recent US economy has been robust in terms of GDP and employment, and inflation has also significantly eased. This has achieved a strong recovery foundation for the stock market by accomplishing what economists once thought was nearly impossible, a "soft landing". Despite the US Federal Reserve not making a significant rate cut as expected by the market, the S&P 500 has been maintaining a good rise since the beginning of this year.
Is it the "Golden Age" of small-cap stocks? Soaring up to 3 times since November!
Historically, both the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq Composite Index haveThere is a high probability of increase in December.。また、ラッセル2000に興味があるなら、Both the win rate and return (2.8%) are the highest.It is noteworthy.
In fact,From November until now,The Russell 2000 indexIt has risen by about 11%. and the S&P 500 during the same period exceeds the 6% increase . Year-to-date, related stocks $Vanguard Small-Cap Growth ETF (VBK.US)$Next,25.3％、 $iShares Russell 2000 Growth ETF (IWO.US)$Next,25.6％It is rising and showing a number close to the increase rate of the S&P 500.
qitabankuaiIncrease range of Russell 2000 constituent stocksLooking at it,attractive investment opportunities are being offered to investors.It can be seen that.
・Standing at the top of the increase rate.is an American biopharmaceutical company. $Poseida Therapeutics (PSTX.US)$In November, the stock price recorded an increase of about three times. The company is expected to be acquired by QITABANKUAI for a total stock value of approximately 1.5 billion dollars, and the transaction is expected to be completed in the first quarter of 2025.ranked 2nd, and in November the stock price $ROCHE HOLDING AG (RHHBY.US)$by QITABANKUAI, the stock of which is about to be acquired for about 1.5 billion dollars, with the deal expected to close in the first quarter of 2025.
second place, and in November the stock price is a manufacturer of flying taxis $Archer Aviation (ACHR.US)$surged in November.Expected to more than double.. The company has made significant progress in its commercialization efforts and is also targeting the military market. It has already received orders from the U.S. military for approximately $104.2 million and is building a solid foundation for future growth.
・3rd placeFuel cell energy giant in the USA, $Bloom Energy (BE.US)$So, in November,the growth rate is 186%Bloom Energy announced that it has signed a 1GW contract with American electrical utilities company AEP. This is the largest commercial procurement in the fuel cell sector,indicating that AI data centers are beginning to introduce power supply using solid oxide fuel cells (SOFC) on a large scale.。
• 4th placequantum computing-related stocks $D-Wave Quantum (QBTS.US)$So, in November,the increase rate reached 185%. $Amazon (AMZN.US)$The announcement of the Quantum Embark program by AWS, the cloud computing platform under its umbrella, has led to the sharp rise in quantum computing-related stocks.・Ranked 5thprompted the sharp rise.
・5this a biopharmaceutical company $Omeros (OMER.US)$In November, the increase reached 180%.The rate of increase reached 180%.The company is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company specializing in the areas of inflammation, central nervous system, and coagulation disorders. In addition to surpassing market expectations in the third quarter performance, there has been progress in product development, with a roadmap laid out for the resubmission of the biologics license application for narsoplimab. This indicates the potential to become a future new source of revenue.
アナリストは、小型株が再び歴史的高値に接近しているのは、Policies of the Trump administration、特に減税政策が米経済の成長を後押しするという投資家の期待によるものだと分析している。Morningstarのインデックスストラテジスト、Dan Lefkovitz氏は以前、小型株は主に金融サービス、基礎素材、一般消費財、不動産など「アメリカ中心で経済に敏感な」市場セクターにあり、これらのセクターはトランプ氏の政策下で好業績を上げる可能性が高いと述べた。
●Qitabankuai hot stocks
Moreover, recently,Quantum Computing、Space、そしてNuclear power related stocksas mentionedThree major 'cutting-edge technologies'has also recently shown a very strong upward trend.
In addition to the above three industries,The second half of the AI battleMomentum has fully started. According to Goldman Sachs, the AI market is classified into 4 stages, and the next explosive growth phase will involve a wider range.AI 'Stage 3' Applicationstransition and monetization.
Source: MOOMOO, Dow Jones, Carson Investment
This article uses automatic translation in part.
moomoo News: Sherry
This article uses automatic translation in part.
moomoo News: Sherry
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only.
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