SMCI
Super Micro Computer
-- 40.210 PLTR
Palantir
-- 70.960 NVDA
NVIDIA
-- 140.260 TSLA
Tesla
-- 351.420 INTC
Intel
-- 22.470 There is a 90% chance of an increase! Are the stage set for the american stocks' year-end rally? What are the hot stocks for December?
American stocks have reached record highs since the beginning of this year, but considering recent significant performances and historical trends, market sentiment is high.It seems that there is still room for growth until the end of the year.。
Last month's American presidential election sparked a buoyant period in the American stock market. The Dow Inc recorded a 7.5% increase, achieving a milestone of 45,000 points.The Nasdaq composite index and S&P500 stock index are both thriving.equally. Rose by over 5%.Recorded a new high. Since the beginning of the year, $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$are AlmostEvery 5 days,Setting new records each time, alreadyhas reached 54 new all-time highs.I did. $Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$The Nasdaq 100 index followed suit. The Russell 2000 index of small-cap stocks has shown a performance that is almost double that of the S&P500 index in the past two weeks. Investors have factored in expectations that President-elect Trump's pro-business policies will stimulate economic growth and corporate profits. At the same time, expectations of rate cuts are boosting market inflows of funds.which is almost double that of the S&P500 index.Investors have factored in expectations that President-elect Trump's pro-business policies will stimulate economic growth and corporate profits.
At the same time, expectations of rate cuts are boosting market inflows of funds.Some institutions have started to raise their year-end and next year's stock index targets.。
UBS Global Wealth Management's Mr. Haefele stated, "While the threat of tariffs may cause short-term market volatility, the fundamental fundamentals remain strong." Regarding the outlook, he believes that the year will end in a bullish market.
Looking back at history, there is a high likelihood that this upward trend will continue.
Does the development in the previous November indicate the direction of the year-end market?
The S&P500 has already been rising from January to November this year.26.47%According to past data, of the 10 times when the S&P500 rose by at least 20% in the previous 11 months, it achieved further gains in December nine times, with an average increase of 2.4%, and a 90% probability of increase.80% among these have led to a further increase in December, with an average increase of 2.4%. The probability of advance is 90%.Is
According to Ned Davis Research, a strong market until November is usually a good sign for the end of the year. American Chief Strategist Ed Clissold said, "One consistently well-validated adage is that 'momentum leads price.' There is a tendency for further increases to follow a big uptrend. ...The outlook is bullish until the end of 2024."The months leading up to the end of the year usually indicate positive signs, according to Chief US Strategist Ed Clissold."The momentum leads the price." This is one of the consistently well-tested adages. There is a tendency for further increases to follow a large upward movement. ... The outlook is bullish until the end of 2024."After a significant rise, there tends to be further upward momentum."After a significant increase, there is often a trend of continued upward movement.
The most likely month to experience an upswing during a presidential election year.
And, the feature of this year is,that the presidential election has boosted bullish sentiment.According to Mr. Detrick, December is the second best month for the S&P 500 in a presidential election year, following November (the election month), with an average return of 1.3% since 1950.This year, considering the further sharp rise of US stocks in the election month, it seems that this pattern is being repeated.Moreover, it is noteworthy that the probability of the S&P 500 index rising in December of a presidential election year is the highest among the months of election years.83.3%.the most likely month for the index to rise in election years.Indeed.
Even excluding the impact of the US presidential election, there is no month with a higher likelihood of rising than December.
According to CFRA's Mr. Sam Stovall, December is the most stable month for the S&P 500.To be the most stable in rising.The probability of increase is the highestIt is also considered to have the lowest volatility, nearly 40% lower than the average of other months since World War II.
Excluding the impact of the American presidential election, from a probability perspective,there is no month with a higher likelihood of increase than December.It is understood that over the past 70 years, the probability of the S&P500 rising in December has reached about 75%, according to Detrick.
Furthermore, in the US stock market,most of the increase in Decemberis in the second half of the month.There is a tendency to occur. This is mainly due to a seasonal phenomenon called the "Santa Claus Rally" on Wall Street.Santa Claus Rally. According to past data, investors tend to buy during the 7 trading days after Christmas, which are the last 5 trading days of the year and the first 2 trading days of the following year, and there is a high probability that US stocks will rise. Over the past 70 years, the S&P500 has risen with an 80% probability during these 7 trading days.andis.
So, can we expect the "Santa Claus Rally" this year too?
現在、いくつかの楽観的な兆候が見られる。最近の米経済は、GDPや雇用が堅調であり、インフレも大幅に緩和している。これは、かつてエコノミストたちがほぼ不可能と考えていた「ソフトランディング」を実現し、株式市場の力強い回復の基盤を築いている。米FRBが市場予想に反して大幅な利下げを行わなかったにもかかわらず、S&P500は今年に入ってからも良好な上昇を維持している。
●小型株の「黄金時代」到来か？11月以来、最高3倍の高騰も！
歴史的に見ると、S&P500種株価指数、ダウ工業株30種平均、ナスダック総合指数はいずれも12月に上昇する確率が高い。また、ラッセル2000に興味があるなら、勝率とリターン（2.8％）の両方が最も高いことは注目に値する。
In fact,From November to the present.The Russell 2000 indexhas risen by about 11%during this period, surpassing the 6% increase in the S&P 500 index.For the year to date, the related stocks $Vanguard Small-Cap Growth ETF (VBK.US)$ga25.3％、 $iShares Russell 2000 Growth ETF (IWO.US)$ga25.6％It is rising, showing a number close to the increase rate of the S&P500.
qitabankuaiIncrease range of Russell 2000 constituent stocksWhen looking at it,Attractive investment opportunities are being offered to investors.It is understood.
- Leading in the rate of increaseis an American biopharmaceutical company. $Poseida Therapeutics (PSTX.US)$. The stock price in Novemberrose nearly 3 times.Recorded. The company, $ROCHE HOLDING AG (RHHBY.US)$is planned to be acquired for approximately $1.5 billion by, with the transaction expected to be completed in the first quarter of 2025.
Ranked 2nd is a manufacturer of flying taxis $Archer Aviation (ACHR.US)$, with the stock price rising in November The revenue of the datacenter is expected to reach $22.6 billion, demonstrating the high demand for AI chips.. The company has made significant progress in its commercialization efforts and is also targeting the military market. It has already received orders from the U.S. military for approximately $104.2 million and is building a solid foundation for future growth.
Ranked 3rd Fuel cell energy giant in the USA, $Bloom Energy (BE.US)$In November, the186% increase was reached.Bloom Energy announced that it has signed a 1GW contract with American electrical utilities company AEP. This is the largest commercial procurement in the fuel cell sector,indicating that AI data centers are beginning to introduce power supply using solid oxide fuel cells (SOFC) on a large scale.。
and ranked 4th place quantum computing-related stocks $D-Wave Quantum (QBTS.US)$In November, thethe growth rate is 185%reached 4.3%. $Amazon (AMZN.US)$The announcement of the Quantum Embark program by AWS, the cloud computing platform under its umbrella, has led to the sharp rise in quantum computing-related stocks.・Ranked 5thprompted the surge in quantum computing related stocks.
・Ranked 5this a biopharmaceutical company $Omeros (OMER.US)$In November, the上昇率は180%に達した。同社は炎症、中枢神経系、および凝固障害の分野に特化した臨床段階のバイオ医薬品企業だ。第3四半期の業績が市場予想を上回ったことに加え、製品開発でも進展があり、narsoplimabの生物製品承認申請の再提出に向けた道筋がついた。これは将来の新たな収益源となる可能性を示している。
アナリストは、小型株が再び歴史的高値に接近しているのは、トランプ政権の政策、特に減税政策が米経済の成長を後押しするという投資家の期待によるものだと分析している。Morningstarのインデックスストラテジスト、Dan Lefkovitz氏は以前、小型株は主に金融サービス、基礎素材、一般消費財、不動産など「アメリカ中心で経済に敏感な」市場セクターにあり、これらのセクターはトランプ氏の政策下で好業績を上げる可能性が高いと述べた。
●Qitabankuai hot stocks
Also, recentlyQuantum computing、Space, and Nuclear power related stocksthatThe three major 'cutting-edge technologies'has also recently shown a very strong upward trend.
In addition to the above three industries,the latter half of AIhas also officially kicked off. According to Goldman Sachs, the AI market is divided into four stages, and the next explosive growth phase is a more extensiveAI 'Stage 3' applicationsTransition to promotion and monetization.
Source: moomoo, Dow Jones, Carson Investment
This article uses automatic translation in part.
moomoo news of individual stocks Sherry
This article uses automatic translation in part.
moomoo news of individual stocks Sherry
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only.
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