The surge in tech stocks leads the S&P500 to its 44th record high! Unexpected acceleration in September usa CPI, what will be the next development in the usa market?

moomooニュース米国株 wrote a column · Oct 11, 2024 14:10

The soft landing of the economy is expected due to the recent labor market data in the USA, dampening speculations of an interest rate cut by the FRB. Additionally, investors continue to prefer high-tech stocks in the AI boom, $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$reaching new record highs again. The US consumer price index (CPI) for September, announced yesterday, rose by 2.4% year-on-year, exceeding expectations. A slowdown in the labor market was indicated, with the weekly initial jobless claims announced by the US Department of Labor on October 5, which saw an increase of 33,000 to 258,000 claims, surpassing expectations and reaching a 13-month high from the previous 225,000 claims.

On the other hand, many senior FRB officials are almost certain that while the inflation rate in the US has not yet reached 2%, it is moving in the right direction. They also mentioned that they are not particularly worried about the unexpected increase in the September CPI inflation rate.

On October 9, the major stock price indices in the US market all rose. $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$and $Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$recorded a new high at the closing price. On October 10, the S&P 500 index faced pressure surpassing the expected CPI, causing a slight decline, but the closing price exceeded the peak of 5767.37 points, reaching 5780.05 points.This year marks the 44th time the all-time high has been updated.It was done.

S&P500 hits record high again, driven by the 'AI boom'?

Among the constituents of the S&P500 index, leading semiconductor companies $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$, developing software for big data analysis $Palantir (PLTR.US)$, a major energy company in the United States $Constellation Energy (CEG.US)$In addition, the stock price of veru inc has doubled since the beginning of the year, $GE Aerospace (GE.US)$gan ltd, a US networking equipment manufacturer, $Arista Networks (ANET.US)$、 $Oracle (ORCL.US)$semiconductors giant, $Broadcom (AVGO.US)$usa IT giant $Meta Platforms (META.US)$have all risen by more than 67%, and these companies have all become winners of the ai boom.

The surge in tech stocks leads the S&P500 to its 44th record high! Unexpected acceleration in September usa CPI, what will be the next development in the usa ma...

$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$nvidia achieved a 6-day winning streak, approaching its all-time high again. The increasing demand for reasoning calculations in the new chapter of the AI narrative is expanding the company's chip demand. On the 8th, at an event called "AI Summit DC" in Washington, the company explained that 3 gigawatts (GW) of electricity are needed for Blackwell to develop OpenAI's "GPT-4" software. Nvidia hasidentified new growth opportunities for the companySuggested bringing about.

Morgan Stanley's report suggests that the complexity of inferential calculations and demand are showing exponential growth, especially task-oriented ones, bringing new growth opportunities to Nvidia. Nvidia's full-stack solution has significant advantages in solving such complex problems. Nvidia's AI processor market share is expected to further increase in 2024 and 2025, with shipments also expected to sustain growth.

In the past 10 years, the US stock market has seen many Ten-bagger stocks, and these 10x stocks have brought rich returns to US stock investors. Among these, technology stocks have taken the lead. The artificial intelligence semiconductors giant that once ranked first in the world by market capitalization saw a 300-fold increase over 10 years, etc.Ten-bagger (Ten-bagger)Stock has appeared and these 10x stocks have brought rich returns to US stock investors. Among these, technology stocks have taken the lead. The artificial intelligence semiconductors giant that once ranked first in the world by market capitalization saw a 300-fold increase over 10 years, etc $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$Increased by 300 times in 10 years, etc $Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$Increased by 57 times in 10 years. $Broadcom (AVGO.US)$Increased by 28 times. $Tesla (TSLA.US)$、 $Amazon (AMZN.US)$、 $Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$、 $Netflix (NFLX.US)$recorded an increase of more than 10 times, etc. $Apple (AAPL.US)$、 $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$also achieved a nearly 10-fold increase in stock price in the competition for the top market capitalization. Furthermore, the pharmaceutical giant $Eli Lilly and Co (LLY.US)$rose by more than 16 times in 10 years and is approaching a market capitalization of approximately 900 billion dollars.

Unexpected acceleration of the September US CPI, what will be the next development in the US market?

好調な労働市場、回復力のある経済、そして緩和的な金融環境を背景に、米国株に対する楽観論が高まっている。昨日発表された9月の消費者物価指数（CPI）は予想を上回ったが、多くのFRB高官は、米国のインフレ率はまだ2％には達していないものの、正しい方向に進んでいるとほぼ確信しており、9月のCPIインフレ率が予想を上回ったことについてもさほど心配していないと述べた。

ゴールドマン・サックスのアナリスト、デービッド・コスティン氏は最近、堅調なマクロ経済の見通しによって利益率が向上すると予想し、S&P500種指数の今後1年間の利益成長見通しを上方修正した。コスティン氏は、S&P500指数の今後12ヶ月の目標値を6000ポイントから6300ポイントへと5％引き上げた。

BMOキャピタル・マーケッツによると、今年に入ってからの株価急騰がS&P500指数を20％押し上げたが、その急騰はまだ終わっていないと見ている。同社のチーフ・インベストメント・ストラテジスト、ブライアン・ベルスキ氏は、2024年末のS&P500種株価指数の予想を前回の5600ポイントから6100ポイントLast year in Wall Street, veru inc raised its bullish forecast.One of the few individuals, veru inc, who accurately predicted the high stock expectations.This year, veru inc, has raised the financial estimates for the second time since the beginning of the year.

The same person indicates that reasons for the bullish sentiment include the Federal Reserve's policy shift.

As the strong upward trend of the U.S. stocks continues, a corner of wall street's major short selling market also "surrendered".

Since October 2022, a strategist at JP Morgan had been holding a bearish view on U.S. stocks. However, according to a report released by the head of global equity etf strategy at the same bank, Dublafco Lacos Buhas, on Tuesday, it seems that the attitude is changing. The analyst has not updated the year-end target of 4,200 points for the S&P500 index (which implies a significant 27% drop from current levels), but is recommending investing without overly bearish outlook on the market.

However, it is not entirely bullish on U.S. stocks. The same strategist warns that depending on the results of the U.S. presidential election in November, there may be volatility in the market, and a decrease in interest rates may negatively impact corporate earnings, especially in the financial sector.

Some analysts have stated that the uncertainty of the U.S. presidential election could increase market volatility. Investors also need to pay attention to the U.S. presidential election in November.

Source: Bloomberg, Reuters, moomoo
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