Complete turnaround from Mr. Powell's statement! What happened?
Technical analysis (Rating: 1.8/5)
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- It seems to be more related to the employment statistics revision, nvidia earnings, and PCE deflator announcement than fundamental analysis. Based on Dow theory, which states that a trend continues until a clear reversal signal occurs, it is believed that the downward trend is continuing. Given the stagnant volume and lack of overheating, it seems that the momentum for a rise has been undermined while in the midst of emerging.
- If the upward movement continues steadily along the support line, there is a possibility of breaking through the resistance line (around 43) around 9/6, so it would be wise to wait and see until then.
・米半導体大手エヌビディア(NVDA.O), opens new tabは２８日、第３・四半期（８─１０月）の売上高が３２５億ドル（プラスマイナス２％）になると予想した。市場予想（３１７億７０００万ドル）とほぼ一致する水準にとどまり、株価は引け後の時間外取引で６％下落した。
Option Situation
- Weekly option expiration: 9/6 (unemployment rate announcement date)
- Major call options: 39-45
- Major put options: 29-39
There is a reference price at a highly volatile position.
・米半導体大手エヌビディア(NVDA.O), opens new tabは２８日、第３・四半期（８─１０月）の売上高が３２５億ドル（プラスマイナス２％）になると予想した。市場予想（３１７億７０００万ドル）とほぼ一致する水準にとどまり、株価は引け後の時間外取引で６％下落した。
☆Candlestick chart (Rating: 3/5)
☆Candlestick chart (Rating: 3/5)
Is there some upward momentum, even though the direction is somewhat unclear?
☆Resistance/Support lines (Rating: 2.5/5)
・Fell from the blue support line and stagnated within 35-40. Previous support line changed to a resistance line. Broke through the resistance line near 43.
・Formed a yellow support line as a reference from the 43 resistance line and the bottom.
If it continues to rise along the support line.There is a possibility of breaking through the resistance line around 9/6, so it would be better to wait and see until then.Currently, there is not much directionality visible.
Dow Theory x RVGI x Granville's Law (Rating: 1/5)
-Dow Theory: Trend reversal from downtrend to uptrend since 8/5 due to "concerns of a hard landing → expectations of a soft landing". However,Significant downward revision of employment statisticsThere has been no observed trend reversal despite nvidia earnings and PCE deflator announcement.
RVGI: A dead cross occurred on 8/26, followed by a decline.
Granville's Law: It crosses above the 200-day moving average from the bottom, but then crosses below the 200-day moving average again.
From fundamental analysis, it seems to be due to "significant downward revision in employment statistics > Nvidia earnings and PCE deflator announcement" seems likely. According to the Dow Theory, as long as "A clear reversal signal in the trend has not occurred", it is likely that the downward trend will continue. Also, according to the Dow Theory, "Trends can also be confirmed by volumeI still think it is not possible to convert it, given that the trading volume is stagnant. Also, according to Granville's law, it may be considered as one of the sell points, as it has once again fallen below the 200-day moving average line.
☆Moving Average × Volume Moving Average (Rating: 2/5)
・Moving Average: The candlestick chart has risen up to the 5-day moving average line. However, there is a death cross between the 50/75-day moving average line and the 5/200-day moving average line.
・Volume Moving Average: There is a death cross on 8/15. The volume has been stagnant since then.
☆Ichimoku Cloud (Rating: 1/5)
・It is in the midst of a triple reversal, and it seems that one of them will be resolved a little later. The cloud twist formation seems to be a little further ahead.
Is it a sign of stagnation or decline after a certain rise?
☆BOLL×RSI×MACD (Rating: 1.5/5)
・BOLL: Temporarily rose to +1σ, but then retreated again to the baseline.
・RSI: Has not exceeded 50 since 8/26.
・MACD: Currently trending upwards. Still seems early for a dead cross.
→ Does it feel like the momentum of the upcoming rise has been thwarted? No signs of overheating either.
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ぴるさん OP : There are also stories about nvidia/apple jointly investing in OpenAI, so it's also concerning that nvidia has a doji candle in the closing price.
ぴるさん OP : I intentionally wrote this one a little tough, but I can only hope it doesn't turn out like this