Semiconductors and AI demand soar! Three companies including Tohoku Electric Power are making their second upward revision this fiscal year! Can they overcome the rough waves of regulations from China? [Earnings Summary]

There are six semiconductor-related companies that have a large impact on the Nikkei Stock Average Index.For the second quarter earnings (Laser Tech is for the first quarter), four companies saw an increase in revenue and profit. All companies are expected to see an increase in revenue and profit for the full year. As for the full-year performance forecast, $Tokyo Electron (8035.JP)$、 $Advantest (6857.JP)$、 $Screen Holdings (7735.JP)$Three companiesThree companies are making their second upward revision this fiscal year following the first quarter.Has been announced.Continuing strong demand for AI servers and other products.The three companies are experiencing a prosperous period due to the global semiconductor shortage in the fiscal year ending March 2021 and March 2022, with continuous upward revisions. It seems that a similar trend has started for this fiscal year as well.

On the other hand,The stock prices are lackluster.The current stock prices of semiconductor manufacturing equipment makers are weighed down by concerns over the strengthened export regulations from the USA to China. The decline in stocks with high dependence on Chinese revenue is particularly notable. According to Bloomberg Intelligence (BI),concerns are mounting over the intensified export restrictions from the USA to China.The decline in stocks heavily reliant on revenue from China is particularly significant. According to Bloomberg Intelligence (BI),The overall semiconductor manufacturing equipment market is expected to grow compared to the previous year.However, there has been a rush in demand ahead of tightened regulations.In the Chinese market, negative growth is also expected due to a slowdown in demand rebound.Furthermore, performance is struggling to keep up with the AI boom. $Intel (INTC.US)$The degree of dependence on customers struggling amid the AI boom is also a key factor.

What stands out on the stock price side is $Advantest (6857.JP)$it. As a supplier of the leading US AI semiconductor company, $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$funds are concentrated on it due to low risks of export restrictions.The average price-to-earnings ratio (PER) over the past 2 years is about 40 times.However, due to the recent increase in stock prices,The current PER exceeds 60 times.On the other hand, $Lasertec (6920.JP)$のThe current PER is about 27 times.So, Approximately 56 times the 2-year average.have significantly decreasedand investors' cautious attitude is noticeable.Due to negative factors such as the deteriorating performance of trading partner Netherlands. $ASML Holding (ASML.US)$や米 $Intel (INTC.US)$There is dissatisfaction with recent earnings reports and analysts' views on each company.

◆ $Advantest (6857.JP)$
・Increasing demand for ai chip testingTester sales were strong, Second upward revision of the current term.This term's net profit forecast is the second highest ever.
Both full-year estimates and 2Q results exceeded Bloomberg's estimates.
Alongside the earnings announcement,Announced a share buyback of up to 50 billion yen. Also announced.
Unlike processing equipment, the company's testing equipment (tester) is from the usaIt is not considered a direct target of semiconductor regulations towards China.。 $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$In addition to being an important supplier, it is also preferred for its low risk due to the limited transactions with the struggling Intel.
Regarding the exchange rate for the latter part of this fiscal year,1 dollar is equal to 140 yen.. With the Yen weakening by 1 yen against the Dollar,operating profit is expected to increase by 1.1 billion yen annually.Therefore, there is room for an upward revision.
Analysts say, "they exceed high market expectations with good earnings.
In response to the earnings, Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities raised the target stock price from 7700 yen to 1400000 yen.Increase from 7700 yen to 1400 million yen.

◆ $Tokyo Electron (8035.JP)$
Investment in strong AI server continues for the future.The second upward revision of the current term
- Both full-year forecasts and 2Q results exceeded market expectations.
Foreign securities analystsAt present, the stock price is still declining, but there is an intrinsic upward potential". If the outlook for 2025 becomes clearer, the upward trend is expected to occur.
- The sales ratio in the second half (October-March)China sales ratio is expected to decrease from about 45% in the first half to the 30% range.It will remain in the 30% range in the coming fiscal year.
・Purchasing own shares is limited to 70 billion yen.to

◆ $Shin-Etsu Chemical (4063.JP)$
・ Electronic materials such as silicon wafers grew, but polyvinyl chloride resin did not perform well.
・ The assumed exchange rate for the second half is1 dollar is equal to 140 yen.Revised from the previous level of 150 yen to a stronger yen direction. If the yen weakens by 1 yen against the dollar, it is expected to push up annual operating profit by approximately 4.6 billion yen, so if the current yen depreciation continues, an upward revision is expected.
- The progress rate of operating profit for the April to September period compared to the company's plan is 54%.
・The current cash deposit is approximately 1.8 trillion yen as of the end of September, reaching the highest level in history.Yet, there are doubts from the perspective of capital efficiency.Expectations for additional announcements of share buybacks during the current fiscal year.To be done.
Analysts say, "The first impression of the earnings is positive.and so on are evaluated.

◆ $Lasertec (6920.JP)$　
The only manufacturer to commercialize EUV light source inspection equipment. Mask blank inspection equipment is manufactured in the Netherlands. $ASML Holding (ASML.US)$Although it has a strong business relationship with ASML, which announced negative earnings in October, selling pressure intensified.
・The disclosure of quarterly order performance and order backlog was discontinued.Also, it has been viewed negatively.
- Being a customer $Intel (INTC.US)$ is expected to be affected by decreasing competitiveness.
Analysts say, " The saturation of negative materials is still a long way off, and we want to maintain a cautious stance." etc., expressing a negative perspective.

◆ $Disco (6146.JP)$
- Almost monopolizing the share of devices used for AI (Artificial Intelligence) that generates HBM.
The company only discloses performance estimates up to the first quarter: It is expected that the consolidated net profit for the October-December 2024 period will increase by 29% from the same period of the previous year to 20.7 billion yen, significantly below market expectations.
Sales to China in the second quarter account for 33%.
The assumed exchange rate is1 dollar = 135 yen. With a depreciation of 1 yen against the dollar, the impact on full-year operating profit is approximately plus 1.5 billion yen.
JP Morgan on October 18th,Reduced the target stock price for power semiconductors from 54,000 yen to 39,000 yen by the end of December 2025 due to concerns about the outlook.JP Morgan on October 18th,

・２Q営業利益は市場予想上回った。
・Second upward revision of the current term.。洗浄装置の受注が伸びている。
・増配を発表。年間配当予想247円は過去最高。
・製造装置の中国売上高比率は上期の45％から下期は38％へ低下Expected to do.