Tesla-chan, who doesn't listen, and the mentor's perspective on steel
However, what could be the reason for such a decline...
I won't be fooled.![]()
Economic indicators have shown that there is no immediate need to worry about an economic downturn... Interest rates are declining, and the declining trend of the dollar index is a tailwind. Concerns such as the worry of a collapse after the resolution of the inverted yield curve and the belief that an interest rate cut equals an imminent economic downturn have been affecting investor sentiment, leading to cashing out. Funds have flowed into bonds and other assets, causing interest rates to decline further and creating a tailwind for stocks... The impact would be significant if an economic downturn did not occur.![]()
As for the extent of the interest rate cut, I believe it will be around 0.25 based on the employment statistics. If people who were expecting 0.5 view it pessimistically that it became 0.25, it would be a misunderstanding. The important thing is that the FRB does not lag behind the economy and achieves preventive interest rate cuts, which will be a tailwind for the stock market, while considering the re-emergence of inflation and enduring for a long period with the card of multiple interest rate cuts without destabilizing employment. This situation will continue to be a tailwind for stocks in the long term. Drastic interest rate cuts or emergency interest rate cuts would be unfavorable for the FRB, as it would imply that the FRB is lagging behind the economy and would not be favorable for stocks.![]()
We must continue to watch the FRB's steering for a long time to come.![]()
TSLL, SOXL, and mining stocks too, for sure.![]()
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tena0623 : The impact of not experiencing an economic downturn, the fact that the American Federal Reserve is unlikely to be further behind, and my understanding is the same! I feel that it is temporarily decreasing due to psychological effects, but it is not something that can be stopped, and I don't feel pessimistic about it.
I also consider it as a good platform for starting pessimistic discussions!! In the end, I am investing in buying Tesla, SOXL, Cleanspark, etc. at low prices and holding them until 2030, so I want to continue without any wavering.![undefined [undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36)
ジョモりん OP tena0623 : The current fact is not to worry about economic indicators or corporate performance for economic downturn, but if interest rate cuts are implemented from this month in that state, it can only be called a preventive interest rate cut. Then, I think it would be good to see if the pace of interest rate cuts will be maintained without falling behind while comprehensively considering economic indicators.![undefined [undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36)
tena0623 : Good morning! Actually, I've been concerned for a while. Even though the numbers aren't that bad, and even if each company has good financial results, it keeps going down... The Fed has taken preventive measures (although it has been said that it is a bit late, and it doesn't seem like an economic recession). It's a very healthy economic cycle, but pessimism has grown stronger and there have been significant downturns. I think it's the actions of institutions, but it's important to consider things objectively and from a comprehensive perspective.
Jo Morin's steel-like mentality comments are a support for each moment.![undefined [undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36)
ジョモりん OP tena0623 : NASDAQ recorded a 5% decrease for the week. Many bullish investors follow the 5% rule and buy more when it reaches this level, as it is a rare buying opportunity. Whether it will stay around 5% or go even lower depends on sentiment. However, in the long run, increasing positions when investors are bearish can yield positive results. Personally, if the price drops by two-thirds of my remaining funds, I will buy more. Otherwise, I will keep it as spending money.![undefined [undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36)
If it is assumed that the stock price is falling due to the consideration of a recession that may or may not occur now, it will move by foreseeing future events. In the current situation, the possibility of a hard landing is low, so I think it is not likely to fall significantly.
Not to mention, if the institution had no concerns about the economic downturn at all, there is even a possibility that it could rise at a speed that would not allow for selling and buying back, so it is fun to imagine various motives.![undefined [undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36)
In my case, I regret the speed at which I increased my purchases because I did not predict that it would drop this much. However, I don't regret it in the long term because I think I was able to buy at a cheap price.
tena0623 : Even professionals make mistakes in predictions, and there is no market that only goes up, and the same goes for the opposite. It is necessary to reflect on it (as a future reference for your own judgment, not for others), but we cannot know the future. If the facts are clear, it is good to buy.
We cannot know how much it will decrease and how fast it will rise, as it is about the future. However, we analyze it and move forward with evidence. Jomorin-san's style is very simple, and the criteria for judgment are also simple.
It is a thorough analysis, but it is easy to understand. ![undefined [undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36)
The short-term direction of other people can be indicated by the numerical indicators of today and tomorrow, but Jomorin-san's comments are based on a medium-term "bullish market" which helps to relieve the trivial fluctuations in the current amount.
Please continue to refer to it in the future (lol).
tena0623 : How should I incorporate a hard landing and rapid increase... It seems that there will be an early buying opportunity again next week.![undefined [undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36)