A sharp rebound in Japanese stocks! Who sold this past week? Why did they sell it?

Japanese stocks rose on October 5. It is rising in response to high US stock prices.

The US market on the 4th was “stock prices declined due to falling interest rates in response to economic statistics showing deterioration in the employment market.” The day before, the 3rd, was “high interest rates and stock depreciation in response to a drastic increase in employment (number of job offers).” When it comes to that, the employment statistics figures announced on the 6th are “if bad content is announced, stock prices will rise.”

However, the reaction to the material is intense and I'm nervous, so it's better not to decide too much in advance. The situation where stock prices fluctuate greatly continues.

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The position of the closing price on October 4 compared to the stock price at the end of August is described below.

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Rate of change compared to the end of August (10/4)
NY Dow - 4.5%
Nasdaq Index — 5.6%
Nikkei average -6.4%
TOPIX -4.8%
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Compared to the end of August, there is no big difference between the decline rate of major indices of US stocks and Japanese stocks in the 4-6% range. Today's Japanese stocks are rising, so the rate of decline in Japanese stocks based on the 5-day closing price will shrink from what is shown.

Next, what level is the 4-day closing price compared to the stock price just before the September rights loss of Japanese stocks (9/27 closing price) are described below. This is the focus.

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Rate of change compared to the 9/27 closing price (10/4)
NY Dow - 1.2%
NASDAQ Index +1.0%
Nikkei average -5.7%
TOPIX -6.7%
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This one has major features. As for the 4-day closing price compared to the last day with rights, the rate of decline in Japanese stocks is much larger than that of US stocks. Only Japanese stocks fell sharply.

In other words, there is no big difference between US stocks and Japanese stocks in stock price performance over the past month or so. However, there is a big difference in one week. The rate of decline in Japanese stocks has greatly exceeded US stocks over the past week, and this is a fact.

Deprivation of rights is a phenomenon unique to Japanese stocks. The fact that Japanese stocks fell sharply as a result of that is that there are forces that have sold shares since delivery in October.

Some domestic investors, such as domestic pensions, sold Japanese stocks from October handover. Short-term money (overseas trend-following hedge funds, etc.), which was seen as a short-term decline in Japanese stocks due to so-called rebalancing, was sold short and went on. I am drawing this hypothesis that this is the supply-demand factor that led to a decline in Japanese stocks.

TOPIX on September 27th rose by 18.7% compared to the end of March. Meanwhile, interest rates on 10-year US bonds have recently risen to the 4.8% range compared to 3.5% at the end of March. Even if there are domestic institutional investors who buy US bonds with higher yields and make portfolio adjustments to sell Japanese stocks that have made plenty of profit, it would be a very natural phenomenon.

Radio NIKKEI commentator Kamata Shinichi

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