A story about how you can win without looking in the direction of the market

Today 5/16 is also close to heaven, drawing an upper beard similar to yesterday, making it the worst chart shape.

Under these circumstances, it's almost impossible to guess whether it will go up or down tomorrow. In other words, it is impossible to win with the actions of many individual investors who predict stock prices and swing trade only with spot stocks on a daily basis...

Unless you change your investment/trading style like this, you'll be fighting a bad fight first.

And this time
■Predict stock prices ⇒ Move yourself after unexpected stock prices move
I would like to write about yesterday's way of thinking about this.

Let's take a look at the situation with Nikkei Futures.
First, the long term. Since it's Sell, the long-term downtrend continues.

And medium term.

Blue as of yesterday. In other words, it is in a negative trend and there is a downtrend in the medium term.
The situation is currently returning in the short term, but we haven't been able to reverse the rise even on a medium-term basis, and we haven't been able to exceed 25MA this week, and we haven't been able to break out of typical 25MA return sales.

The last one is ADX and DI, but here's the lower chart.
The yellow ADX fell quite a bit to 12.07 due to the decline. This indicates the strength or weakness of volatility, but it means that volatility is declining.
Nikkei VI also recently fell to around 18.5 between 18-20. Therefore, I think the market price has settled down.

Both red +DI and blue -DI collide at 28 on the antagonist line. Since this means that upward and downward forces are antagonizing around zero, it completely indicates a range exchange rate.

As a result, I don't know whether to go up or down the 38500 axis. That's because it's a zero-flat range.
There is still no image of a sharp rise or sharp drop due to the decline in mullet.
Both medium- to long-term declines, short-term returns flat from rise = when it rises, you can sell, and if it falls, buy
However, the overall market price is weak, so if it goes up, it seems that credit sales, futures short fur call sales will stick around

I predicted that.

This is just saying “I don't know after all” whether it will go up or down tomorrow (laughs)
If you're only doing spot stocks, you have no choice but to “don't do anything” or “buy” by betting when you go up.

However, if you check the chart and grasp the market flow and volatility,
・Situations where you don't know which way to go around 38500 yen
・Mullet has settled down, so the possibility of a sharp drop or sharp rise is low unless there are too many surprises
・The medium to long term is still weak, so selling when it goes up is safer than buying when it goes down
You can imagine that.

On top of that, “if stock prices move, I move too.”
Also, if you know the options in addition to spot stocks and futures, you will be able to respond to developments where betting on volatility fluctuations = whichever one is wacky but moves a lot.

In the video I uploaded last night from the market review above
“I don't know which the movement in the US market will respond after US CPI or US retail. (Because CPI was good but retail was bad)”
“Also, the upper price of Japanese stocks is heavy, the bottom is solid, and the volatility is low. Then wouldn't it be fine to place orders for fur call sales and fur PUT sales starting at 38500 yen for +300 yen or -300 yen?” I explained it.

So they sold the C41500 for 64 yen, placed an order for the P34500 for 65 yen, and the C41500 was contracted.
I've already bought the trail back for 49 yen, so 14 yen = 14,000 yen is almost a profit. If the upper price remains heavy as it is, I would like to pull it up to around 25 yen.

Of course, there is also the tactic of buying an option with a long straddle or strangle if it's an option when it comes to making a big move.
This is a tactic taken before stock prices move, so it's a tactic... it's a tactic where accuracy decreases, but you can move either way by limiting losses.

You won't make a profit for the rest of your life even if you use futures for both, but it's a great point that you can take a strategy of long volatility if it's an option.
For example, if you buy both the C38500 and P38500 after the CPI announcement last night, it will be a long straddle. Well, it only moved around 300 yen, so this was disappointing.

In this way, if you use options, even if you don't know the direction of the market price, your winning percentage will increase if you can grasp the situation and volatility.

Even without using options, if you easily grasp the chart, make a habit of firmly grasping volatility, and make a habit of moving after stock prices move, it means that even if you don't know the direction of the market price, you can make a profit even if you don't know the direction of the market price or if you remove the direction of the market price.

I've been saying “if it rises, it's far CALL sales” ever since April, but this isn't because selling options makes money, and it's because it's in such a position due to charts and volatility. Then, the “falling 5MA cross” was confirmed, and after confirming that the upper price was heavy, CALL sales were put in.

With this alone, they have been selling CALL frequently 7 times since April, but they have won all of them.
The profit isn't a big deal, but since it's 15,000 to 40,000 yen at a time, I was able to get around 200,000 yen with this alone.

Even if you can't guess tomorrow's market price, if you understand the essence of trading, and if you can cut losses well, anyone can achieve an annual plus!