高贵的阿德莱德 commented on a stock · Apr 3, 2024 21:18

About UNH and XLV

Yesterday, a friend asked about UNH. I previously invested in this stock after the hacking incident, bought it midway (switched over from XLV, but didn't catch the lowest point). Fortunately, I felt it wasn't rising for a long time and seemed suspicious, so last week I switched back to XLV. Although it also dropped, it was a narrow escape. I don't remember the specific day of the switch, as I've only been focused on speculating on Tesla recently and forgot about everything else.

Upon closer inspection, it seems that due to inflation, medical expenses have soared, but the government has not increased the budget for medical insurance spending, leading to a future compression of profits for medical care companies. It can't really be considered government intervention in the market, just that the government indirectly cut back on basic social welfare, thereby bringing negative impacts to the entire industry.

In this way, the days of the medical insurance company are quite difficult.

Overall, it is still a good track with both offensive and defensive capabilities. While short-term stock prices are under pressure, taking a long-term view, the entire track remains evergreen. As long as UNH maintains its industry leading position, it will definitely hit new highs in the future. However, there will be many uncertainties in the meantime.

As for XLV, overall it is a better track than simply medical insurance. The expenses of medical insurance companies are also the revenue of the entire industry. As long as the population continues to grow, life expectancy increases, and the pursuit of a healthy lifestyle becomes higher, the medical industry track will only get better. $The Health Care Select Sector SPDR® Fund (XLV.US)$

Currently, it seems that the heat around weight loss drugs has subsided, so XLV will also follow UNH in the same direction, with relatively small fluctuations.

In the short term, if UNH really falls below last year's low point, there is really not much support below, and it may head straight to 400. If you do not intend to hold on an annual basis, or if your position is too heavy, then you need to prepare a trading plan in advance. However, if it really falls to around 400, in my opinion, it is a giveaway. At that time, I will take the opportunity to switch XLV back to UNH.

For XLV, if it falls again, it will break below, but the support below is not far away. I entered the market very early, heavily last December, with relatively low costs, so I plan to continue observing for a while. Unless there is an opportunity for a pullback in XLU's direction, I may partially reallocate there. $Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLU.US)$

After all, XLV is breaking below quickly, while XLU has just broken through.

But if you have recently entered the market with relatively high costs, you should decide by yourself whether to stop loss. After all, UNH's recent stock price performance has not been very good, and there is quite a bit of short-term risk. XLV is slightly better, but once it falls, it will also need to consolidate for a while before it can rise again.

As for dividends, they are not very high, so there is no need to hold onto them because of dividends.

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