According to analysts, the US stock market started trading at a high on the shortened trading day: the Santa Claus rally period officially begins.

US stock futures rose on Tuesday ahead of the shortened trading period before Christmas Eve. The stock market will close at 1:00 p.m. Eastern Standard Time on Tuesday, and the bond market will close at 2:00 p.m. Eastern Standard Time. Both markets will be closed until Christmas on December 25th. Futures for all four major indices rose.
As most analysts are expecting the 'Santa Rally' to occur at this time, the S&P 500 index is expected to record a strong return of 20% or more for the second consecutive year in 2024.
The yields on 10-year and 2-year Treasury bonds were 4.59% and 4.34%, respectively. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, the probability of no interest rate change in the decision scheduled for January 31, 2025 was 91.4%.

Futures Change (+/-)
NASDAQ 100 0.19%
S&P 500 increased by 0.12%
Dow Jones increased by 0.02%
Russell 2000 increased by 0.02%
According to Benzinga Pro data, in the pre-market trading on Tuesday, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE: SPY) rose by 0.16% to $595.67, and the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ: QQQ) rose by 0.24% to $524.10.

Clues from the previous session

The U.S. stock market rebounded on Monday, with the tech-heavy NASDAQ leading the gains. The NASDAQ Composite Index surged by 0.98%, supported by strong performances of Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) and NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA).

Economic data released on Monday showed various results. The National Activity Index of the Chicago Fed slightly improved, but U.S. durable goods orders unexpectedly declined.
Sector performance varied. Telecom Services, Healthcare, and Information Technology led the gains, while Consumer Staples and Materials lagged behind. Last week, all major indices recorded losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell for the third consecutive week, dropping by about 2.3%. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite Index also declined, each falling by approximately 2% and 1.8% respectively.

Index Performance (+/-) Value
NASDAQ Composite 0.98% 19,764.89
S&P 500 0.73% 5,974.07
Dow Inc 0.16% 42,906.95
Russel 2000 -0.22% 2,237.44
Insights from Analysts
According to Carson Research's Chief Market Strategist, Ryan Detrick, while the last 7 days of the previous year were negative, he mentioned that 'the next 7 days are officially known as the Santa Claus rally period.'

Detrick also added that apart from the last 7 days of the year, there is no other period with a higher likelihood of further increases. This 'Santa Rally' period has at least a 78.4% chance of achieving positive returns.

In addition, I mentioned that this year there was only an 8.5% correction or peak-to-trough pullback in August, but on an annual average, a 14.2% correction was observed, and there is a high possibility of some correction in 2025.

According to Mr. Detrick, the first year of a new president's term has been generally positive since 1897, but the returns in the first year of the second term have not been very good overall.

Louis Navellier of Navellier & Associates commented on the policy changes proposed by the next president, Donald Trump, as follows: "There are concerns about the uncertainty surrounding the speed at which the changes announced by the new Trump administration will be implemented, especially the potential impact of tariffs and the escalating conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine. Ultimately, the impact of these risks on stocks only occurs if they affect earnings, and for now, the 2025 forecast remains unchanged.
"We believe that if overly optimistic analyst targets, prolonged positioning, and high valuations fall short of bright expectations, the market is likely to experience a larger pullback. However, this does not mean staying underweight in stocks. Mario Georgiou, Executive Director and Chief Investment Officer of Incred Global Wealth, stated, "I recognize that the strength of the bullish market implies that there is still room for growth in management."