Additional US regulations against Huawei will suppress the upper price of semiconductor stocks, but there are also clues that the trend will reverse after mid-May

The market is looking for new clues about interest rate trends, and since it is focusing on the CPI to be announced on the 15th of next week,It's hard for tech stocks to move until the CPI is announcedIt is expected that the situation is in place. It was also one of the reasons why Japan-US semiconductor stocks were developing slightly weakly, but it seems that additional restrictions on Huawei by the United States were viewed as material.

While Huawei once again rose to 2nd place in the Chinese smartphone market share by manufacturer for the fiscal year ending 24-1/3, Apple fell 4th place. Also, we received information that Huawei's own DUV development center would begin operation in June, which shocked the US White House and the National Diet, and the U.S.The Commerce Department took up export licenses issued to Intel (INTC) and Qualcomm (QCOM) to substantially strengthen the blockade against HuaweiIt looks like it did. Yesterday, INTC showed a forecast that the Q2 (April-6) sales forecast would fall below the median range of 12.5 billion to 13.5 billion dollars previously shown due to the effects of the same regulations.

Along with the implementation of these additional regulations, it will further spur Huawei's acceleration of development of semiconductors, etc., and doubts about the effects of regulations are growing when it leads to an increase in the self-sufficiency rate of Huawei and China. Meanwhile, due to additional regulations against HuaweiIn addition to having a direct impact on INTC, etc., it also causes a certain amount of damage to the semiconductor industry chain in general, such as semiconductor devicesSeemingly. While there is still a strong sense of uncertainty about when to start cutting US interest rates, there is also a possibility that additional regulations on Huawei will suppress the upper price of semiconductor stocks until next week's CPI announcement.

However, starting with semiconductor stocks, tech stocks, etc., it is expected that there will be two catalysts that will reverse the trend after mid-May. First, according to the US GS,The scale of share buybacks by American companies this year is estimated to be 934 billion dollars. Of these, it is estimated that approximately 17% will be implemented from May to JuneTherefore, it will be the biggest boosting material for tech stocks. Also, “Computex Taiwan 2024” is scheduled to be held in Taiwan in early June. Keynote speeches by CEOs of NVIDIA, AMD, etc. are scheduled, and since announcements of updated materials for AI semiconductors and Pradform are expected, buybacks will intensify again towards June ahead of expectations.

Although there is a mountain called CPI next week, riceHedge funds, disclosure of positions held by institutional investors/13F (Q1 24) have started, and in particular, position changes such as Berkshire Hathaway around the 15th are attracting attentionIt will be done. Since this is the first quarterly data for 2024, changes in positions in AI and tech stocks by each company are likely to be an indicator of the outlook for the full year of this year, which is probably one of the important clues for next week's market price.