$Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$ first Dell now micron bot...

TWIMO (151403908) : Thanks for this insight. I’d like to ask for a few minutes of your time on 30-60days Put options… What are the few selections?

10baggerbamm OP TWIMO (151403908) : the first thing you want to absolutely confirm the date of their earnings release. nothing is worse than a company that reports typically at the end of the month and then they make the announcement that they're going to report the first of the new month and your options expire worthless because you ran out of time.
do not enter any trades until you have 100° certainty the exact date of their next earnings release.

next you have to understand the market dynamics change very quickly Powell destroyed the stock market yesterday and this is intentional the sentiment went from bullish to bearish like a light switch going on to off. by using the word uncertainty and referencing inflation multiple times he did exactly what he knew what was going to be expected which is a market sell-off and now bulls are going to be using rallies to sell into and not buy.

xiaoswee : ur right so exit before er, its almost certain to dump for afew more quarters

10baggerbamm OP TWIMO (151403908) : next thing you need to understand is this is an all or none trade you're not going to recoup anything of your options if I am wrong. they are going to go to zero.
hopefully and I use this word reluctantly because typically I say if it comes to Hope in investing you're already fucked..
hopefully we get a little bit of a snapback rally in AMD can get to 126 maybe 127 in the coming days if that's possible.
and that's when you would want to buy the puts because some of the volatility premium to the downside that was added yesterday will be removed if we're able to catch a few up days if there is a Santa Claus rally between now the end of the year and the first week of the new year.
that is when the put should be purchased
as far as the strike price I think you need to look around the $100 level. printing a screenshot today isn't going to provide you any service because again if we get a little bit of a rally the volatility premium will come out on the put side and the prices should come down 30 40% versus where they closed yesterday.

lastly Christmas sales are going to be a huge indication and you can look at Best buy if they report before AMD it would be great because they break down segments of their sales so you can look at personal computers. I don't think it's going to be that impressive because Dell is guiding lower micron guiding lower I don't see how AMD can be the only person on the battlefield without getting shot to put it bluntly. I think they're doomed to be impacted resulting in a significant gap down come earnings day when they issue guidance that disappoints.

10baggerbamm OP : I just wanted to post this so you can see for yourself because you may not believe me and that's fine you need to verify for yourself as it's your money. this is the percent of micron's business that's in the compute business which is PC sales this is why the stock is getting decimated after hours and you can compare this percent to PC sales versus what AMD has and decide for yourself

digimonX : Micron stated weaker-than-expected consumer-side demand in smartphone & PC.  This concern is not limited to AMD.  Ask yourself this - in today's context, are there more smartphone units sold or PCs/notebooks.  If your answer is smartphone, then investors of arm, Apple, Samsung, Qualcomm, Hynix, etc should be worried about incoming sell-offs.

On the PC (& laptop) side, Intel is still holding a larger overall market share.  Everyone knows the state Intel is in now.  Nearly irrelevant.  Overall impact to AMD may not be so great because market demand may be lower, AMD can still take market share from Intel.  If u look at the top 10 cpu best sellers on Amazon & other online channels, AMD basically dominates 9 to 1 based on my last check, with Intel at 10th spot.  The 9800X3D cpus are selling like hot cakes & AMD cannot keep them in stock worldwide.  Just google & look at the reviews & level of interest/demand.

The freaking problem with AMD is their marketing.  They are doing a lot of good work but they don't communicate effectively enough. Lisa doesn't speak like Jensen e.g. Blackwell is sold out for the next 12 mths.  She always only "feels good" about the progress & this hardly wows anybody.  As such, they are constantly under attack. A recent one being a nonsensical "research" by a clown below "guessing" AMD won't be able to guide AI for year 2025.  A research report based on "best guess". What a wonderful world - people get paid for guessing.


Source: Wolfe Research: "Our Best Guess Is That AMD Won't Be In A Position To Guide AI For CY25 – Which Will In Itself Drive Concerns"